A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Well we have to do double runs Tue-Fri. But that's OK.. 275.00 a day.For about 3 hours of work.
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where do you live Sandi?
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.Lucky you.I am off Tues and Wed,Thank goodness.I beleive 96l will gets its act back together today.hopefully not,
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According to the map IKE posted in comment 3364 there is a very deep depression heading my way!!

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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


I think they fly based on BP's oil gusher.
Negative, nothing to do with one another.
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3396. IKE
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Quoting IKE:
Save the gas money NHC.....



I think they fly based on BP's oil gusher.
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
Doing well getting ready for work.Boy 96l is looking a bit ragged this AM:
Yes it is. Have a good day at work today. We are not allowed to work to work today. Have to wait till tomorrow.
Quoting IKE:
Unless you want to fly in 95L! Which is unlikely.
I agree Ike they should probably wait
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3393. IKE
Unless you want to fly in 95L! Which is unlikely.
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Morning All, Hope everyone had a great 4th and got there fireworks in. Lots of rain here in wcfl this am but we will take it. just for july i have gotten 4.86 and still coming down.
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Doing well getting ready for work.Boy 96l is looking a bit ragged this AM:
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I'm fan-frikkin-tastic! How about you?
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3389. IKE
Save the gas money NHC.....

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Good morning msgambler.How are u today?
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Morning granny.
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3386. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:

Yep, every 6 hours the NoGaps has a new solution as does the CMC and UKMET, GFS does too. It is like playing slots to see how many cyclones will you get each time. ECMWF is the only one that I would give more credibility to, since you do not see it develop 2-3 cyclones every run.


I'd agree with that.


Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning Ike. There is something forming in the MDR on the long range 06z GFS but is over 300 hours.

On another note, I think recon will be canceled for 96L.


That's why I didn't mention it...300 hours out.

I'd be tempted to say recon will be canceled to, at this point, unless it comes back within the next 2-4 hours.

Doesn't look likely when part of the convection is reaching Cuba now.
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Quoting IKE:
6Z NOGAPS takes 96L into southern Mississippi and the wave in the eastern Caribbean toward Bermuda.
Good morning all.Just heard on my local news that we should watch 96l with interest this week.I hope he is not suggesting anything.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning Ike. There is something forming in the MDR on the long range 06z GFS but is over 300 hours.

On another note, I think recon will be canceled for 96L.
"Nothing to see here... move along, move along."

I have to admit I expected 97L to form from that Twave over the Antilles, but this a.m. it doesn't look like much at all. Most convection seems blown off to north; no cyclonic turning seen...
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Quoting IKE:


LOL...we knew that years ago....classic.

It's almost to the point the only "believable" model I've seen is the ECMWF. Maybe the parallel GFS gets a thumbs up so far.

Yep, every 6 hours the NoGaps has a new solution as does the CMC and UKMET, GFS does too. It is like playing slots to see how many cyclones will you get each time. ECMWF is the only one that I would give more credibility to, since you do not see it develop 2-3 cyclones every run.
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On another note, I think recon will be canceled for 96L


I'd bet you're right.
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Good morning Ike. There is something forming in the MDR on the long range 06z GFS but is over 300 hours.

On another note, I think recon will be canceled for 96L.
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I agree Doug. Way too close to home.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
G'morn folks. 95 is still spinning like a top I see. That is an interesting little system.

Because of the way it spun up out of a stalled front right along the coast it was guaranteed to make a L
Because of the way it spun up out of stalled front it was guaranteed to have real problem developing into anything tropical in nature..
Again maybe a TD before it get sucked ashore in the next day or two.
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I dont much care for that solution Ike.
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Going to follow the doc's lead, glad I put the hex on 96l before leaving.Our saving grace has been the difficulty of these systems to get vertically stacked. Lets hope that remains so. Cool Carolina mountains are calling me back againnnn.
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Quoting sailingallover:
you guys are hard core..morning some good night to others..
I'm up checking on 97L which since it will be on top of me in 18 hours I think is prudent. Last night looked like it was getting organized but this morning has been sheared apart.. so back to bed for me.



Are you onna boat in the ATL?
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I hear ya Doug
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Quoting msgambler:
Dang Doug, I'd move....LOL


I like my house!
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96 will come roaring back. These systems pulse for a dew days before the feedback takesover and then they become self-sustaining.
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3371. IKE
95L just keeps going and going. 96L looks rather :( this morning....

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you guys are hard core..morning some good night to others..
I'm up checking on 97L which since it will be on top of me in 18 hours I think is prudent. Last night looked like it was getting organized but this morning has been sheared apart.. so back to bed for me.
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Wow! DRAMATIC difference in appearance of the basin from 12 hours ago...



We got overnight rains again last night, but not as ridiculous with the thunderstorms as the previous couple of nights.
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Dang Doug, I'd move....LOL
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Thunder close now. My home has been struck twice in the last 7 years.
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I cant wait to see the visible of 95.
It has fought off shear and dry air ever since it exited the coast off of the panhandle the other day. Its trying to insulate itself sorta by not going real high in the atmosphere and keeping what little moisture there is right around the center. Pretty cool in my opinion.
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Good Morning all. Raining again this AM along the west coast of Fla. 5-7 inches over the last four days.
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3364. IKE
00Z UKMET @ 60 hours looks similar to the 00Z ECMWF, with 96L...

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Morning all.

[groan] Maybe I should have had the coffee first before the blog....

Will back read to see what's up with our cirles.....
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Quoting IKE:


LOL...we knew that years ago....classic.

It's almost to the point the only "believable" model I've seen is the ECMWF. Maybe the parallel GFS gets a thumbs up so far.


Right now I would rate them neck and neck, will have to see how it plays out. If a TD develops from 96L, ECMWF. If not, parallel GFS.
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I could use some Jolt Cola this morning :) Very heavy rain down here on Dauphin Island, AL I hope to see a couple of waterspouts today.
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Already have mine but ty Doug
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3359. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Looks like HPC finally got the memo.....
Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

THE GEM GLOBAL CONTINUES TO BE CONTAMINATED BY SPURIOUS CIRCULATIONS OF TROPICAL ORIGIN.


LOL...we knew that years ago....classic.

It's almost to the point the only "believable" model I've seen is the ECMWF. Maybe the parallel GFS gets a thumbs up so far.
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Looks like HPC finally got the memo.....
Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

THE GEM GLOBAL CONTINUES TO BE CONTAMINATED BY SPURIOUS CIRCULATIONS OF TROPICAL ORIGIN.
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3357. IKE
Parallel GFS does put a low in the western GOM in 60 hours, but the way 96L looks, it needs an energy booster this morning...

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Gotta go make coffe. Ya'll wanna a cup?
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And 95 will prolly go back to 20 or better on the next TWO. My guess.
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Was going to say hello to Pat but I noticed he was like one of my kids in the fact that I wake up and he was just sneaking off to bed. I'll tell ya what, if he didn't have so much work to do in the next few weeks we would have to ground him.
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3353. IKE
Quoting stormpetrol:

Good Morning, well we finally have a lull in the squalls and rain here, still a howling of the wind though.


How much rain have you gotten in the last 24 hours?
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Same here Gambler. Breezy w/tstorms commin in off the gulf.
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3351. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Hmm...96 took a step backwards overnight.


Yes it did. NHC may lower the odds on it on the next TWO....oh my....

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.