A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Quoting Flawestcoast:
Getting POUNDED right now with torrential rains in the Tampa Bay area. Fourth day in a row. This tropical moisture train won't go away!!! Sign of things to come in the Gulf this Summer.


I'm just north of you. The stationary front has been sitting right on top of me for days. My head is killing me. Ow. Ow.
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3449. cg2916
The same thing happened overnight to 92L. Some people said TD tomorrow, then it had a rough DMIN. It also need a surface circulation, just like 93L (again), to get better organized.

Just goes to show how unpredictable weather can be.
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3448. Dakster
Good morning Stormw - Thanks for the update. So far, good news at hand for most of the GOM... Although we all know that can change from one hour to the next.
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Quoting StormW:
INVEST 95L AND 96L SYNOPSIS ISSUED 8:10 A.M. JULY 05 2010


Good Morning!

Thanks for the update nice job.

Still think center low preassure is about 1008mb or less. Last report was 1008mb at 2AM, i agree is less organized on SAT than yesterday, so vorticity is lower. Will see what happend in the next 2 days.
Member Since: July 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 552
Thanks StormW makes sense, looks like some rain for us tommorrow (again).
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3444. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting msgambler:
Good job StormW. Morning KOTG
morning
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53787
Alex dropped 20 inches of rain in Southwest Texas, west of Del Rio, amazing
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Good job StormW. Morning KOTG
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3441. IKE
Quoting txag91met:

NOPE...ECMWF Corpus, GEM LA.


ECMWF shows a weakening system reaching southern Louisiana


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3440. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
morning wunderbloggers all is good i see lots of fading away thats a good thing and recon has been scratched as well
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53787
Link

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND BY
TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

Doe's this look like it's trying to stall or just changing it's forward movment?

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WOW, what happened to 96L? lol

So much for Bonnie by the time recon goes out lol. Today the RIPers will have a ball!
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
96L

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I have never seen so much rain in Tampa before without the presence of something tropical. I am starting to wonder if Tampa is the new Seattle.
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I'm doing good. Finally getting some well needed rain.
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Quoting all4hurricanes:

Don't all the models say turn due west and hit Mexico?

NOPE...ECMWF Corpus, GEM LA.
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Link

Intresting, 95L looks like it's trying to bulk up alittle.
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well guys I just checked my station with the one at the airport we are both reading 1011mb and droping and the surrounding bouy are reading properly now and now I list them:

NDBC 42057=1011MB FALLING (Western Caribbean)
ICON LCIY2=1013MB FALLING (Little Cayman)
NDBC 42056=1010MB RISING (near Yucatan)

MY STATION=1011MB FALLING (W.B. Grand Cayman)

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Quoting StormW:
Good morning!


Hey man.
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Good morming StormW. How are you this morning? Well rested I would hope.
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Quoting txag91met:
I think there is a decent chance that 96L will turn into Bonnie by Wed/Thu in the Gulf...probably make landfall between Corpus / Lake Charles as a weak tropical storm.

Don't all the models say turn due west and hit Mexico?
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I think there is a decent chance that 96L will turn into Bonnie by Wed/Thu in the Gulf...probably make landfall between Corpus / Lake Charles as a weak tropical storm.
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3419. geepy86
Hey Fldewey could you push that rain just a little further north. We are still dry up in the northern part of the county.
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Quoting IKE:
I don't see Bonnie happening in the next 24-48 hours.

No way this season gets to 23...probably not 20.

Yeah, I know...it's only takes 1.


i agree, but dont subestimate 96L still dangerous. could developed in 1 or 2 days.
Member Since: July 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 552
Link

Looks Like 95L is trying to make up its mind just like my kids. lol
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3415. Dakster
Quoting Flawestcoast:
Getting POUNDED right now with torrential rains in the Tampa Bay area. Fourth day in a row. This tropical moisture train won't go away!!! Sign of things to come in the Gulf this Summer.


All of Florida has been getting pounded by rain the last few days... Not that we didn't need it, because the previous week or so was very dry. However, we don't need it back all at once.
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3414. IKE
I don't see Bonnie happening in the next 24-48 hours.

No way this season gets to 23...probably not 20.

Yeah, I know...it's only takes 1.
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Quoting Flawestcoast:
Getting POUNDED right now with torrential rains in the Tampa Bay area. Fourth day in a row. This tropical moisture train won't go away!!! Sign of things to come in the Gulf this Summer.


This rain is from the stationary front which resulted in 95L and the other yellow circle East of Florida.
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The circulation is lower than yesterday. But 2 AM EDT central preassure is 1008mb so still low pressure. I think still danger system. Position and Shear are favorable to developed.
Member Since: July 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 552
Quoting itrackstorms:
TWO is a little later than normal this morning...


I knew that would work!
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TWO is a little later than normal this morning...
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3409. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND BY
TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT AND THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED
FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CANCELED.
HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING AN
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND ADJACENT WATERS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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When is D-min/max they always seem to be the deciding factor of the color of the NHC circles
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Getting POUNDED right now with torrential rains in the Tampa Bay area. Fourth day in a row. This tropical moisture train won't go away!!! Sign of things to come in the Gulf this Summer.
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HAGD granny
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Probs

Probabilities have dropped significantly...

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Wow good money.Well off to work,Have a blessed day all.This sight is so addictive isnt it.
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
where do you live Sandi?


The UK ..... 100 miles off the west coast:)
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Well we have to do double runs Tue-Fri. But that's OK.. 275.00 a day.For about 3 hours of work.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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