A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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3501. IKE
21.1N and 85.7W is at the Yucatan channel...WTH?
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If you look at the latest vis loop of 95 L, look to the west of the main blob of convection and you can see an aparent naked swirl
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3499. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AL 96 2010070512 BEST 0 211N 857W 25 1009 DB


What were the stats 6 hours ago?
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Link
Well now!
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Tropical Update w/ Video
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Quoting CStaWeatherMan:
I think 96L has a life to it and will develop. When you look at it in at P451's post it is definitely going somewhere. I agree it will pass through the Yucatan channel but where it goes from there has a possibility for anywhere like txaq91met's post states. Also I have noticed after observing these entities for years that when systems are near in time to each other the area sets itself up in a certain pattern and this entity will probably follow Alex in path, somewhat. But will change course later when it gets in the Gulf. I agree with txaq91met's post that Wed or Thurs we will be in the know.


'Good point. Have noticed the same thing regarding following a similar path when tropical disturbances or areas of interest are close in time. When conditions are favorable in an area, they seem to linger for while. Not really scientific but merely an observation.
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Well where ever it goes it needs to wait till next weekend to get there. I have alot of work for this week.
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Quoting StormW:
INVEST 95L AND 96L SYNOPSIS ISSUED 8:10 A.M. JULY 05 2010


Thank you!
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I still say thing are looking goods for our little friend 96L I say maybe we gwt a TD late tonight or tomrrow ya

Tomorrow, today it has to organize
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05/0545 UTC 27.7N 90.6W T1.0/1.0 95L -- Atlantic

05/0545 UTC 16.9N 83.4W T1.0/1.0 96L -- Atlantic
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3491. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)

at 9 am here are my conditions
sky:clear
Temperature: 82.2F
Dewpoint: 72.7F
Humidity: 73 %
Wind: W 9 mph
Humidex: 100
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I have an interest. I'm in Mobile and have been here since 5am. But that is because the coffe pot starts at that time and, umm, can't leave it going without me
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AL 96 2010070512 BEST 0 211N 857W 25 1009 DB
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I still say thing are looking goods for our little friend 96L I say maybe we gwt a TD late tonight or tomrrow ya
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Link

Almost looks like 96L might take the same path as 95L if it is to get stronger in the next few days, unless trof is planning to do somthing drastic in next week. TX/LA border maybe? I think it goes a little bit to the east of models right now.
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I think 96L has a life to it and will develop. When you look at it in at P451's post it is definitely going somewhere. I agree it will pass through the Yucatan channel but where it goes from there has a possibility for anywhere like txaq91met's post states. Also I have noticed after observing these entities for years that when systems are near in time to each other the area sets itself up in a certain pattern and this entity will probably follow Alex in path, somewhat. But will change course later when it gets in the Gulf. I agree with txaq91met's post that Wed or Thurs we will be in the know.
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3485. Dakster
Quoting Orcasystems:


Looking at the models.. only the CMC has anything happening... and it takes 96 just to the west of NOLA.


And not through SFL... Hopefully the CMC is wrong as I don't think NOLA needs another 'cane at the moment and I don't think it will help the oil gusher situation either.
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Quoting Dakster:
Blog is doing through DMIN at the moment..

The red square doesn't mean anything when the "storm" in it isn't a Major Hurricane... So we can say Hebert all day long.


Looking at the models.. only the CMC has anything happening... and it takes 96 just to the west of NOLA.
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Morning Jeff, are you saying too many spirits were consumed?
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3479. Dakster
For the moment.. Subject to change at any time.
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3478. IKE
Sorry this frame is an hour old...SSD needs an upgrade, but you can see the dry air that's gotten into 96L...

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Quoting msgambler:
Well to be honest I would rather hear explainations on such things as the "Red Box" LOL...Then say: the polls, or all the arguing that goes on in here at times.


I have to admit.. not big on polls.
usually I don't see them, but there is always someone new making one.
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So the disturbance north of the bahamas is kaput?
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Quoting cg2916:
The blog's getting quiet...

QUICK POLL!

What was your favorite storm to track?


Pretty much all of the 2004 storms. Some of them were way too close for comfort.
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Starting to look a little better again:
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Morning earthly
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Morning everyone
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To much excitment last night I guess.
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3470. Dakster
Blog is doing through DMIN at the moment..

The red square doesn't mean anything when the "storm" in it isn't a Major Hurricane... So we can say Hebert all day long.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Actually I had them last year.
I had a laptop crash..so I had to start all over with the overlays and feeds.

Trust me.. at least once a month or so..someone will ask. usually good for a couple of hours of chat about them when things slow down.
Well to be honest I would rather hear explainations on such things as the "Red Box" LOL...Then say: the polls, or all the arguing that goes on in here at times.
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The blog is quieting down because the % was dropped by 10%?
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Station SPLL1
LSU CSI
Location: 28.867N 90.483W
Conditions as of:
Mon, 5 Jul 2010 11:00:00 UTC
Winds: SSE (150°) at 22.9 kt gusting to 27.0 kt
Significant Wave Height: 4.3 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 6 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.89 in and falling
Air Temperature: 77.2 F
Water Temperature: 84.2 F
Visibility: 6.5 nmi
Tide: 3.01 ft (above MLLW)

South Timbalier Buoy
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Quoting msgambler:
That's your story, and your sticking to it.


Actually I had them last year.
I had a laptop crash..so I had to start all over with the overlays and feeds.

Trust me.. at least once a month or so..someone will ask. usually good for a couple of hours of chat about them when things slow down.
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Quoting cg2916:
The blog's getting quiet...

QUICK POLL!

What was your favorite storm to track?


Hurricane Elena and Tropical Storm Juan
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Station 42056
NDBC
Location: 19.874N 85.059W
Conditions as of:
Mon, 5 Jul 2010 11:50:00 UTC
Winds: S (170°) at 11.7 kt gusting to 15.5 kt
Significant Wave Height: 6.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 9 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ESE (116°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.85 in and rising
Air Temperature: 77.7 F
Dew Point: 75.9 F
Water Temperature: 84.7 F

Yucatan Basin
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3463. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
off to work i go check in at lunch
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Quoting cg2916:
The blog's getting quiet...

QUICK POLL!

What was your favorite storm to track?


Anyone that doesn't hit ME
Member Since: July 29, 2005 Posts: 21 Comments: 794
That's your story, and your sticking to it.
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Quoting msgambler:
Good morning Orca. I see your still trying to point out that red box....LOL


Ummmm
no... they are just there now, I made them part of the backgrounds :)

Yeah thats it :)
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3459. cg2916
The blog's getting quiet...

QUICK POLL!

What was your favorite storm to track?
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1008.4 mb 33kts

Link

Better than 2 AM EDT
Member Since: July 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 549
Good morning Orca. I see your still trying to point out that red box....LOL
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI
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3454. cg2916
Quoting StormW:


You're welcome. My pleasure!


Yeah, I've learned so much from this blog. Heck, I've learned more this year so far than the past two years combined!
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Quoting StormW:
Good morning!

Good morning. And thank you for answering my question yesterday about frontal systems and tropical/subtropical storms. I appreciate learning these things.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.