A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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3601. brla61
Godd morning everyone. Great update Storm!
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Quoting StormW:
INVEST 95L AND 96L SYNOPSIS ISSUED 8:10 A.M. JULY 05 2010


Mornin' Storm! I should have read your analysis before asking the question.
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It appears to me that 96L is pulling itself back together now.
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3598. IKE
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morning all! Hope everyone had a great 4th!

Looks like someone got into the box of crayons again at the NWS - must be that time of year. Any thoughts on development of 95L?
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Morning all. Although I didn't mention it, I kind of expected 96L to look like the way it does today. Alex did the same exact thing in the Eastern Caribbean when it was declared 93L and what happened the next day? All the convection went poof.
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Ok know this is funny, yesterday we had 4 circles and many thought 3 systems could form

Today, Bahamas area dropped and 96L and the Islands area is down 10%; how funny would it be if none of them developed? lol
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The general direction of 96L is more to the northwest. Last night it encountered some areas of stability from the remnants of Alex. As it moves in a different direction, more to the northwest, it will encounter better conditions for development.
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Quoting sarahjola:

we are getting heavy rains here in mandeville la. not much wind at all. could 95l develop into maybe a depression sitting right there off the coast? where and when is it due to make landfall? tanks in advance:)


95L is a depression (that just means an area of low pressure) but its convection will run on to the mississippi delta later today and it most likely will die out before becoming a tropical storm.
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Master Chief. I read your blog, and as usual, thanks for it.

I keep seeing different reports suggesting that 95L is moving generally NW at around 6 and. as you surmise, is forecast to come in around the central coast of LA. Incidentally, I live in Mobile. My issue with this thing is that I do not see the northward movement at anywhere near that speed. In fact, if ever a low was seen to be, stationary, or meandering nowhere, this appears to be it. I only ask, because in my opinion (just about worthless) conditions where it is right now could improve somewhat over the next 24 hrs, distancing the low from the front and maybe even causing this non tropical low to become somewhat more of a concern, albeit probably minor.

Your thoughts please (and everyone elses bullets are also welcome, yup, been here before)

Y'all have a great day.
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Quoting Progster:
95L...

a little low level swirl clearly visible on RGB.

Link

and a mesocyclone in the convection.

Link

we are getting heavy rains here in mandeville la. not much wind at all. could 95l develop into maybe a depression sitting right there off the coast? where and when is it due to make landfall? tanks in advance:)
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Hwre's Bastardi's early AM blog

MONDAY 9 AM
ON THE ROAD, POST LATER

Quick look at the Caribbean system indicates the mid-level center is behind the low-level center, which is near the northeastern tip of the Yucatan. Not a favorable scenario for rapid development, and part of the way large-scale systems organize... rather than one tropical wave. The system is not sheared, it's just that it has different areas at different levels where it's trying to develop. In the Pacific, this takes several days. In the Atlantic, this can run out of room. Texas should still keep an eye on this.

Interesting goings on off mid-Atlantic coast later this week... more on that later.

The Gulf system is coming ashore in Louisiana.

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TUTT north of the Antilles seems to be a permanent feature so far this season. Not much going on with 96L this morning.
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3588. gtownTX
Thank you StormW for your thoughtful analysis.
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3587. BFG308
96L is turning out to be a lot like 93L aka Category 2 Hurricane Alex. I'm not saying it's gonna hit TX or Mexico again but I will say that persistence is vital to survival, and this things has that going for it so far. Keep your eyes on it, and wait!

(Which, for Wubloggers is the last thing anybody wants to do lol)
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3586. hydrus
Quoting TankHead93:
Ugh, developing tropical systems like this drive me nuts!
It was like that in 2009 too. Systems with(multiple vorticies). It is hard to track a bunch of little spins, inside a big spin, revolving around an even bigger spin...:)
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95L...

a little low level swirl clearly visible on RGB.

Link

and a mesocyclone in the convection.

Link
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3584. IKE
Now look at the dry air.....




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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I see that. I see swirls all over the place.
Ugh, developing tropical systems like this drive me nuts!
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Have to run now but will check back later.
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Quoting TankHead93:
Hey kman, where can I find that satellite image with that vorticity overlay? May you please post a link? TIA


Go here. It will take you a little while to get familiar with this site but it is easy to navigate around.
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I just found it, it is a ship. Funny it has been sitting there for quite a long time in that area.
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Quoting kmanislander:


96L is definitely a split personality system.
Behaving like a monsoonal system, as StormW described yesterday.In this case, instead of enhancing development, all the competing low pressure swirls are tearing the system apart.
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Quoting kmanislander:


96L is definitely a split personality system.
I see that. I see swirls all over the place.
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3576. IKE
Quoting TankHead93:
So you are saying that you don't see this becoming anything more than a surge of moisture?


Could be...but I'm not an expert on the tropics...don't take my word for it.
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I think this is the buoy identifier C6KJ5?
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Quoting kmanislander:
This 925 mb vort map ( 2500 feet up ) is interesting.

It shows a strong signature in the middle of the Yucatan channel which is presumably what is being referred to as 96L, then it shows developing vort in the blob off the coast of Honduras and finally there is a good signature inside the Windward Islands from the wave that has enterd the Caribbean.

Three areas to keep an eye on.

95L can be seen just offshore the Gulf coast.

Hey kman, where can I find that satellite image with that vorticity overlay? May you please post a link? TIA
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3573. JDSmith
18N 82W. If there is a LLC in 96L, I think it's there. Check it out on RGB. Last five frames, speed rock it. Zooming a little helps too.

May just be an illusion, but it looks like a little swirl is trying to form up there. Away from the convection... Moving almost due north.



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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Seems like a few different swirls fighting for dominance again just like Alex did.


96L is definitely a split personality system.
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NOUS42 KNHC 051415
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT MON 05 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-035

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 06/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 06/1615Z
D. 24.5N 89.5W
E. 06/1715Z TO 06/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 07/0600, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 07/0345Z
D. 26.5N 91.5W
E. 07/0415Z TO 07/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE 3-HRLY FIXES
BEGINNING AT 07/1500Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARK: TASKING FOR 05/1800Z CANCELED BY NHC
AT 05/1140Z.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14778
Quoting IKE:


That's a different NAM....parallel?


No, new NCEP Model Page. I guess they have added that layer, it is not on the current operational page, at least that I have seen.
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Quoting IKE:


Looks to me like it's getting pulled NNW as a surge of moisture....just like the GFS(both versions)...the latest NAM and the latest ECMWF are showing.
So you are saying that you don't see this becoming anything more than a surge of moisture?
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Seems like a few different swirls fighting for dominance again just like Alex did.
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This 925 mb vort map ( 2500 feet up ) is interesting.

It shows a strong signature in the middle of the Yucatan channel which is presumably what is being referred to as 96L, then it shows developing vort in the blob off the coast of Honduras and finally there is a good signature inside the Windward Islands from the wave that has enterd the Caribbean.

Three areas to keep an eye on.

95L can be seen just offshore the Gulf coast.

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3566. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


You don't see it? Middle GOM :)




That's a different NAM....parallel?
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i also think i see a spin at 18n and 82w. 96l got all kinds of swirls:)
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3564. IKE
Quoting whs2012:
Is Invest 96L going to just fade out now and not turn into a tropical system?


Looks to me like it's getting pulled NNW as a surge of moisture....just like the GFS(both versions)...the latest NAM and the latest ECMWF are showing.
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Quoting whs2012:
Is Invest 96L going to just fade out now and not turn into a tropical system?
96L is actually reorganizing in my opinion
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Hasn't done much in terms of reorganizing since the last TWO.. will probably go down to 30% at 2PM, then back up to 40% at 8PM. Man what it did to itself really cost it some time.. anyone have any idea what caused it? lol
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
Quoting IKE:
Yes, it's the non-tropical NAM....but at 18hrs. on the 12Z run...where is 96L?



You don't see it? Middle GOM :)


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Quoting belizeit:
I still believe its right under the convection and will stick to it till the crow comes onto my plate


I do see a couple of wind readings in Honduras that suggest a low offshore there. One is WSW @ 4 mph ( La Ceiba ) and the other is Utila island with a West wind @ 4 mph. Maybe there is more than one low around and another is forming in the blob near the coast.
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Quoting aquak9:


bouy 42056? which bouy is that?
The one in the Yucatan basin.
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aqua, I don't know they are not numbered on the map I am using. I'm using NowCoast

http://nowcoast.noaa.gov/ It is just north of the opening into the Gulf.
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3555. aquak9
Quoting Kristina40:
There is a buoy right at the entrance to the GoM that has a reading 1011.3. It'll be interesting to watch that one today.


bouy 42056? which bouy is that?
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i think i see the spin at 21.1n but not at 85.7w. more like 84.5w. a closer look at visible and i can see it pretty well.
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There is a buoy right at the entrance to the GoM that has a reading 1011.3. It'll be interesting to watch that one today.
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3551. IKE
Yes, it's the non-tropical NAM....but at 18hrs. on the 12Z run...where is 96L?

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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