A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Good morning Tim
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Quoting blsealevel:
Link
Well now!


Awww Snap! That kind of track is a worst case scenario for oil. Anyone have comments on this map posted earlier?
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3649. aquak9
Quoting bassis:


What is the definition/difference of/between statistical and dynamice models


OOO!! OOO!!! let me try to answer this one, PLEASE??

ok, statistical models, use information from the past, like where storms have historically gone in the past, taking into account the present conditions.

dynamic models take more info into account, using the info acquired at the beginning of the computation, and working it into the later part of the computations.

Statistical models try to look into the past for info. Dynamic models try to look into the future for info.

PLEASE someone tell me that's kinda right...
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is a surface low developing just off Tampa Bay?
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3646. beell
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Appears to be the area of lowest pressure and there is a weak cyclonic curvature in visable in that area.


Make sure you don't call it a wave, nrt...
:)
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3644. Drakoen
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Appears to be the area of lowest pressure and there is a weak cyclonic curvature in visable in that area.


I can see some cyclonic curvature oriented east to west on. Perhaps the northerly shear is impeding on its development causing the convection to lag south of the system.
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Quoting StormW:


You'll have to stop in and share a cup of coffee!
StormW,I have been lurking for a couple of years, and always have respected your point of view. I am taking from your comment that you live in the Tampa area?
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ACK Storm, the green one is coming right at me...
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3641. bassis
Quoting StormW:
Got your attention?

12Z STATISTICAL MODELS


12Z DYNAMIC MODELS


What is the definition/difference of/between statistical and dynamice models
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3640. angiest
Quoting StormW:
Got your attention?

12Z STATISTICAL MODELS


12Z DYNAMIC MODELS


In other words, it is going somewhere in the Gulf.
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Quoting Drakoen:
Not sure why the 12z BEST was all the way up into the Yucatan channel. Satellite estimates reveals a circulation much farther to the south.


Appears to be the area of lowest pressure and there is a weak cyclonic curvature in visable in that area.
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Quoting hurricane23:
TUTT north of the Antilles seems to be a permanent feature so far this season. Not much going on with 96L this morning.


Adrian, What does the TUTT at that position may mean when the peak of the season arrives?
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ASCAT got a pretty good shot of 96.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2350
3635. beell
30-40 knots of low level southeasterly flow S of Jamaica towards the western tip of Cuba may be a factor in 96L's lack of organization this morning. Kinda hard to pull itself together under that kind of surge. Things are a little calmer to the west near the Yucatan Peninsula.

06Z 850mb GFS Parallel-Valid 12Z
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Quoting IKE:


LLC....




Upper Level Divergence....



du/dx+dv/dy
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96L isn't looking all that good today, so my thoughts of getting development out of all 3 areas looks to be wrong

may happen eventually, but not anytime soon
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3632. Becca36
Quoting StormW:


You'll have to stop in and share a cup of coffee!

I wish I could! Lot's of family stuff to do before we leave tomorrow early morning. Next time that would be great Storm!
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3631. Drakoen
Not sure why the 12z BEST was all the way up into the Yucatan channel. Satellite estimates reveals a circulation much farther to the south.
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3629. DVG
Quoting Progster:
that's an interesting LLC/ULD couplet W of Tampa

I know the history doesn't show it, but I was in the Tampa airport in 2004. My flight back to Jax was delayed till almost midnight. Originally a 6PM takeoff. What a wild storm.
Lightning all over.

It later became Alex. Not saying, just relating.
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3628. aquak9
kristina- you have wu-mail, top of the screen, red "mail"
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3626. Becca36
Quoting Progster:
that's an interesting LLC/ULD couplet W of Tampa

I'm visiting my sister over near Tampa and we're supposed to get some pretty heavy storms today according to Bay News 9.
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The HH still scheduled to look at 96? I'm surprised...it looks a mess :) Oh..good mornig.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2350
Quoting Bordonaro:

Now you understand what it feels like in New Orleans, LA, Houston, TX & Miami, FL.

Dallas-Ft Worth, TX is a "drier heat". Two weeks ago it was 103F, dewpoint 62F, Heat Index about 105F.


Already 87F as of 11am here in Dutchess County, New York!
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I also do not see a spin/COC near the new Lat/long for 12Z but I do see it at where I said just a minute ago at 16.7N 83.4W
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3622. aquak9
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
CURRENT CONDITIONS
MAINLY SUNNY
Temperature: 88.0°F
Dewpoint: 74.1°F
Humidity: 64 %
Wind: W 16 mph
Humidex: 107


KEEPER!!! your humiture is STILL going up? geeez. You're gonna hafta change your icon to that melting silver guy in Terminator2.
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I haven't tried that one yet aqua. I'm new to this. I've always watched and followed storms but never used these maps before.
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Happy Independence Day (yesterday) to all Americans on the blog!
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Looking at this seems like the vorticity is further south than what they are calling the coc.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
3618. IKE
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3617. aquak9
kristina
are you comfortable using the NDBC link? It's real easy once you get the basics.

I reviewed 42057, 42056, and LCIY2. Pressures dropped overnite, but seems to be stablizing around there.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
CURRENT CONDITIONS
MAINLY SUNNY
Temperature: 88.0°F
Dewpoint: 74.1°F
Humidity: 64 %
Wind: W 16 mph
Humidex: 107

Now you understand what it feels like in New Orleans, LA, Houston, TX & Miami, FL.

Dallas-Ft Worth, TX is a "drier heat". Two weeks ago it was 103F, dewpoint 62F, Heat Index about 105F.
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that's an interesting LLC/ULD couplet W of Tampa
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Alex may cause more flooding.
Officials prepared to divert Hurricane Alex floodwater

"The last time the IWBC had to divert water was back in 1988 during Hurricane Gilbert."

We might see the affect of the Boarder Wall on the flood channels here.....
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3613. Dakster
http://www.cnngo.com/singapore/none/singapore-average-temperature-rising-209897?TrackID=obpaid

Wow... Talk about going into the extremes. Singapore is breaking 140 year records - which is as far back as they have them.
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3612. IKE


LLC....




Upper Level Divergence....


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96L is starting to look like Alex in the early stages but anyway I think that the main COC in near Honduras 16.7N 83.4W
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Thanks aqua, I thought it was a buoy because it was there for so long. Finally figured out how to get the id's for them on that map.
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3609. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
CURRENT CONDITIONS
MAINLY SUNNY
Temperature: 88.0°F
Dewpoint: 74.1°F
Humidity: 64 %
Wind: W 16 mph
Humidex: 107
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3608. hydrus
Quoting Dakster:


I just bought some Crayola Stock...
lol
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where did everybody go?
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3605. aquak9
kristina- if you're still here-

I rarely, if ever, totally trust the ships reports. For trends, if there's quite a few, then yeah...but one singular ship? Don't trust the QC on their equipment, if they even do it.

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Quoting Bordonaro:

95L is moving close to shore as a non-tropical Low as we speak. Will bring some good rains to Southern Louisiana.

This year the NHC will be using PLENTY of crayons. Things may get so busy that they may need to buy the Crayola Corp, or use bingo markers to track tropical systems.

We have had more than enough rain in S LA for a while.
I'm thinking some dry erase markers and a HUGE board may do the trick for them.
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3603. Dakster
Quoting Bordonaro:

95L is moving close to shore as a non-tropical Low as we speak. Will bring some good rains to Southern Louisiana.

This year the NHC will be using PLENTY of crayons. Things may get so busy that they may need to buy the Crayola Corp, or use bingo markers to track tropical systems.


I just bought some Crayola Stock...
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Quoting hurricanehanna:
morning all! Hope everyone had a great 4th!

Looks like someone got into the box of crayons again at the NWS - must be that time of year. Any thoughts on development of 95L?

95L is moving close to shore as a non-tropical Low as we speak. Will bring some good rains to Southern Louisiana.

This year the NHC will be using PLENTY of crayons. Things may get so busy that they may need to buy the Crayola Corp, or use bingo markers to track tropical systems.
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3601. brla61
Godd morning everyone. Great update Storm!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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