A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

Share this Blog
2
+

Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 3751 - 3701

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109Blog Index

ShortWaveLoopWCarib

ShearMap is down but SST's are showing 30C.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey Everyone. Our local Houston news (CHannel 2) is saying that 96L could be at the Texas coast on Wednesday (day after tomorrow) as Bonnie. Does that sound reasonable to be here so soon? I'm located on the coast near Freeport and was curious.

Thanks!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:


Run this loop. It is somewhat obscured by mid leve cloudiness but you can see it eject out of the blob.


The one that takes off to the N very quickly ?. It is partially obscured so the still would not pick it up.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3746. Drakoen
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Are you talking about the northern and eastern quadrant, because that's where I see them.


Yes
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What are the models suggesting with 96L today?
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
Mid-Level Shear.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:


Run this loop. It is somewhat obscured by mid leve cloudiness but you can see it eject out of the blob.
Are you talking about the northern and eastern quadrant, because that's where I see them.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
3742. lavinia
On the NHC satellite page, why are there so many different views? Vis and WV are pretty obvious, but do the other ones (shortwave, funktop, rainbow etc) show different aspects? Sorry if this is a dumb question, but I've been wondering about this for a while and haven't found an answer.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:


Blow up near Honduras just cough up a big surface outflow boundary


Noticed that a while ago, Couple of little engines down there that stall out before they can get going.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3740. Drakoen
Quoting kmanislander:
Although I don't see an outflow boundary in this image.



Run this loop. It is somewhat obscured by mid leve cloudiness but you can see it eject out of the blob.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


Collapsing thunderstorm. We'll see if that is the start of a downward trend.

Nah, 96L is an area of Lower pressure caused by very warm temps, very high SST's & gradually lowering pressures in the area. This will go on until a TD develops or the pressures rise in the W Caribbean.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi everybody. Looks like shape shifting going on in the WCaribbean.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3736. IKE
My amateur guess is...they'll lower the pct. on 96L further on the next TWO and 95L looks near land...close to death....

I'll go w/a 20-30% chance on 96L. I'd say 20%, but I don't think the NHC will....

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3735. bwi
I think the blob at about 19n 86w is worth watching. Near those weird pressure falls last night. Calm winds now along Yucatan coast, strong SSE wind at 20n 85w.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
is there some rotation just off the NE tip of the Yucatan?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3733. Drakoen
Quoting kmanislander:


Collapsing thunderstorm. We'll see if that is the start of a downward trend.


Yea. I would focus more on the area around the Yucatan
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Although I don't see an outflow boundary in this image.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:


Blow up near Honduras just cough up a big surface outflow boundary
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Looks like the outflow boundary from the southern cluster is interacting with the northern cluster. 42056 is SSE at 25-31knts. Looks like a new center is forming on 85W and 19N
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3729. angiest
Quoting TampaSpin:
NASA Radar Images Show How Mexico Quake Deformed Earth
PASADENA, Calif. -- NASA has released the first-ever airborne radar images of the deformation in Earth's surface caused by a major earthquake -- the magnitude 7.2 temblor that rocked Mexico's state of Baja California and parts of the American Southwest on April 4.

The data reveal that in the area studied, the quake moved the Calexico, Calif., region in a downward and southerly direction up to 80 centimeters (31 inches). The maps can be seen at: http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/UAVSARimage20100623.html .



2.5 feet of motion (mostly horizontal in that area) isn't a whole lot. It is believed by some seismologists that the San Andreas proper north of the border may have up to 30 feet of motion built up in it. The 1906 San Francisco earthquake involved up to 20 feet of movement.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Its doing everything pre-Alex did except its going to take a more northerly track so YES!


oh ok. Just noticed it was down to 40% and doesn't look very healthy (from the picture I saw). Just wondering if it wasn't going to be able to develop or not.
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
Quoting Drakoen:


Blow up near Honduras just cough up a big surface outflow boundary


Collapsing thunderstorm. We'll see if that is the start of a downward trend.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BTW, the night before last, SkyePony posted the 00Z CMC, which developed the low over the Bahamas then quickly dissipated it as the low headed toward Florida.

It also tracked 95L northwestward into western Louisiana before dissipating it after landfall.

And it took the the LesserAntilles low and pushed it above the GreaterAntilles toward Georgia before recurving it above the western Bahamas into northeastward track heading toward Massachusetts or eastward thereof.

However the CMC took what-is-now-96L through northern Yucatan and into Texas rather than through the Yucatan-Cuba Channel. So the analogy falls apart there.
Plus it developed an ITCZ wave west of WSW of CapeVerde into a deep low, which then proceeded through the LesserAntilles into the western Caribbean.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


The circle they have now is so wide it encompasses the entire area where 96L is and the blow up near Honduras. 96L will soon travel outside the circle to the N so then the options would be to create a second circle OR expand the existing circle so that it continues to covers both LOL
LOL. I'm sure they will just expand the circle until they start thinking, "Damn, that's a big circle!"
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting TexasHurricane:
So, I guess 96L isn't going to develop as good as we thought.....should we still be concerned with this one?


Until it is dead and gone absolutely. Don't let a fall off in organization with any tropical system lull you into a false sense of security. They can and do bounce back very quickly. Just keep up to date on what is happening with it from time to time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3721. Drakoen
Quoting kmanislander:


The circle they have now is so wide it encompasses the entire area where 96L is and the blow up near Honduras. 96L will soon travel outside the cirle to the N so then the options would be to create a second circle OR expand the existing circle so that it continues to cover both LOL


Blow up near Honduras just cough up a big surface outflow boundary
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TexasHurricane:
So, I guess 96L isn't going to develop as good as we thought.....should we still be concerned with this one?


Its doing everything pre-Alex did except its going to take a more northerly track so YES!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So, I guess 96L isn't going to develop as good as we thought.....should we still be concerned with this one?
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
3718. Drakoen
Quoting YourCommonSense:


Morning Drak!

What do you think of the AOI in the E.Caribbean?

Nothing at the moment. Approaching an area of upper level convergence and low level divergence
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I assume if the NHC decides to circle the area north of Honduras it could become 97L.


The circle they have now is so wide it encompasses the entire area where 96L is and the blow up near Honduras. 96L will soon travel outside the cirle to the N so then the options would be to create a second circle OR expand the existing circle so that it continues to cover both LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I assume if the NHC decides to circle the area north of Honduras it could become 97L.

So this bunch of clouds or blob had two lows or will have two lows? ... one off Nicaragua, and one off the Yucatan? Interesting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormSurgeon:
BR/NOLA Radar


Looks like 95L comeing to give my area a vist
don't look to bad though I am expecting lots of rain from it looks like just a tad west of Morgan City Louisisana.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
Quoting kmanislander:


Yeah, I saw his post. 96L just took off to the NW last night while everyone, including the NHC it seems, was watching the area much further S.

If the area near Honduras develops a surface low would that then become 97L ?
I assume if the NHC decides to circle the area north of Honduras it could become 97L.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
ok yeah Drakoen I can see it now but weak and just about dead
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:



Looks that way. Have to agree with Drak on the Yucatan thing...someone posted this earlier, but here's what Bastardi had to say on it:

MONDAY 9 AM

ON THE ROAD, POST LATER

Quick look at the Caribbean system indicates the mid-level center is behind the low-level center, which is near the northeastern tip of the Yucatan. Not a favorable scenario for rapid development, and part of the way large-scale systems organize... rather than one tropical wave. The system is not sheared, it's just that it has different areas at different levels where it's trying to develop. In the Pacific, this takes several days. In the Atlantic, this can run out of room. Texas should still keep an eye on this.


Yeah, I saw his post. 96L just took off to the NW last night while everyone, including the NHC it seems, was watching the area much further S.

If the area near Honduras develops a surface low would that then become 97L ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Very interesting scenario playing out with 96L...
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting LightningCharmer:

I really felt like a geek reading this blog on my phone for the last few years. I was hiding and supressing my terrible habit. Now I know, I'm not alone. I'm out of the closet now.


LOL......I have been called many things even from this blog!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3707. Drakoen
96L is pretty much like pre-Alex except 96L is oriented north to south due to northerly shear whereas pre-Alex was oriented east to west due to westerly shear.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


I agree. Something is trying to spin up there.
Thanks. I thought I was seeing things. I think this might be the more dominant coc and where 96L "might" organize a little better.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
JimCantore 95L trying to beat 96L to #Bonnie , however, t-storms NOT currently co-located near micro center south of Lafayette, LA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NASA Radar Images Show How Mexico Quake Deformed Earth
PASADENA, Calif. -- NASA has released the first-ever airborne radar images of the deformation in Earth's surface caused by a major earthquake -- the magnitude 7.2 temblor that rocked Mexico's state of Baja California and parts of the American Southwest on April 4.

The data reveal that in the area studied, the quake moved the Calexico, Calif., region in a downward and southerly direction up to 80 centimeters (31 inches). The maps can be seen at: http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/UAVSARimage20100623.html .

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:
Hi kman!


Hi there Storm. Looks like "son of 96L" trying to come to life just offshore the N coast of Honduras. This season may be one where we see many unexpected things, like how 96L has behaved so erratically to date.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 3751 - 3701

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Partly Cloudy
78 °F
Partly Cloudy