A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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3801. Patrap
..Please.

Carry on
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Hi all... long time! My internet has been out since last week. Not cool at all.

We made it through the 3 days of rain from Alex. Now I see we a few new things to keep our eyes on.
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3799. txjac
Quoting StormW:


I agree!

One other point though, with these monsoonal types, they hang around and take time, so why would a LLC kick out and move quicker than the rest of the energy?


StormW, I'm trying to follow what you and kman are talking about. Is it possible the this system is trying to break in to two?
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3798. Patrap
A brief look at Climatology 101


95L current




Hurricane Cindy 5 years ago tonight

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
nice picture of invest96L
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Quoting angiest:


2.5 feet of motion (mostly horizontal in that area) isn't a whole lot. It is believed by some seismologists that the San Andreas proper north of the border may have up to 30 feet of motion built up in it. The 1906 San Francisco earthquake involved up to 20 feet of movement.


I will say it was one heck of an earthquake. Strongest I've felt. We've had a bunch of aftershocks too that have been up there as well. You start to get used to it really but every now and then, one really gets your attention.
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3795. beell
12Z GFS Parallel takes the 700mb disturbance near the Yucatan to the lower Texas coast Thursday morning.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
Have to say it is slightly disappointing, went to bed last night with 4 circles kind of looking forward to seeing what was up this morning

Get up, check the TWO and one circle is gone and the other 3 were all lowered lol

just a matter of time before the season is a bust people come out

I am about to go to bed, Don't be surprised if the 3 circles become 5. Last night it went from 2 to 4 while i was sleeping. Fingers crossed it stays only 3.
Goodnight all.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Yeah. I know. :( But I been wanting to use the smiley guy and thought I'd better get it in there before his sad friends have to come back out. Lol.


lol..... :)
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Quoting StormW:


I agree!

One other point though, with these monsoonal types, they hang around and take time, so why would a LLC kick out and move quicker than the rest of the energy?


I skipped the lecture where they went over that material LOL
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3790. Drakoen
Buoy 42056 should be watched for falling surface pressures.

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Quoting Patrap:






These are the new ones? Look pretty much like yesterday.......
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3788. Patrap
Quoting Drakoen:
What we need to watch for today is growing convection towards the cyclonic curvature, that would be a sign that the northerly flow is relaxing some over the system.


95L has more vorticity than 96l..easily

LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Interesting track...


Interesting and has my attention...
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


yeah, not sure. It doesn't look as good as it did yesterday, although that could change....


Yeah. I know. :( But I been wanting to use the smiley guy and thought I'd better get it in there before his sad friends have to come back out. Lol.
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latest radar looks like 95L starting to move more NNE could be wrong though.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
3784. Patrap




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
3783. bwi
Some of the Cuban radar sites seem to be down the last hour, at least those in the west. This mosaic shows some of the storms off the Yucatan earlier. If the sites come back online, could be helpful.
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Updated 925 mb sat and vort overlay map

4 very distinct areas. 95L, 96L " North", 96L "South" and inside the Windward islands.

Notice the two areas associated with 96L have a separation to them.

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Quoting Hurricanes101:
Have to say it is slightly disappointing, went to bed last night with 4 circles kind of looking forward to seeing what was up this morning

Get up, check the TWO and one circle is gone and the other 3 were all lowered lol

just a matter of time before the season is a bust people come out

i thought they were here allready if im mistaken we've had like ten of them so far
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3780. Drakoen
What we need to watch for today is growing convection towards the cyclonic curvature, that would be a sign that the northerly flow is relaxing some over the system.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Morning Tex. :) Lol. As usual they're no help at all. I have no idea what's happening with 96l this morning. So that's a good thing. SmileyCentral.com


yeah, not sure. It doesn't look as good as it did yesterday, although that could change....
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3778. Patrap
95L Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting TexasHurricane:
Channel 6 - Beaumont ,TX

Models from overnight now showing system not developing and moving more toward Texas.


Morning Tex. :) Lol. As usual they're no help at all. I have no idea what's happening with 96l this morning. So that's a good thing. SmileyCentral.com
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3775. calder
Quoting Hurricanes101:
Have to say it is slightly disappointing, went to bed last night with 4 circles kind of looking forward to seeing what was up this morning

Get up, check the TWO and one circle is gone and the other 3 were all lowered lol

just a matter of time before the season is a bust people come out


shouldn't be disappointing buddy! Hate to think how a developing storm on 96L forecast track would affect the gulf coast. Little yellow circles = happy faces
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3773. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting Drakoen:
NHC 72 hour:

Interesting track...
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
3771. Patrap





Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Have to say it is slightly disappointing, went to bed last night with 4 circles kind of looking forward to seeing what was up this morning

Get up, check the TWO and one circle is gone and the other 3 were all lowered lol

just a matter of time before the season is a bust people come out
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...as the invests turn, so do the days of our lives...bbl
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3768. angiest
Quoting guygee:
Houses and other buildings don't respond well when the earth moves 2.5 ft.
My brother's house sits almost on top of the San Andreas, not exactly on top but way too close for comfort.


That is true, merely stating that it was not a particularly large movement of the earth, even as the San Andreas system goes.
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Quoting StormW:


Well, the only problem I have with them knowing where the axis is, is that if the predominate flow is running SE to NW in the low level steering, why is the wave moving due west? On a surface map, without knowing where the wave axis is, that's how we track waves, by the kinks in the isobars.


I agree it is odd. Another case study for the 2010 season LOL
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3766. Drakoen
NHC 72 hour:

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Quoting Hhunter:
regarding 96L the models are crap..the system is decoupled. but, i see it making substantial progress today on rectifying that. I believe that it will pull together some where between the mid level swirl you see south and east and the low evel swirl near the yucatan. Lets see if this does not happen. The witches brew is starting to come together i think.


Agreed. Right near 19 N and 85 W.
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3764. calder
Quoting RecordSeason:
Rumors of a record season were greatly exaggerated.


poor guy just joined the blog to see 45 storms before september. dry your eyes :( sob sob
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Channel 6 - Beaumont ,TX

Models from overnight now showing system not developing and moving more toward Texas.
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Quoting IKE:
My amateur guess is...they'll lower the pct. on 96L further on the next TWO and 95L looks near land...close to death....

I'll go w/a 20-30% chance on 96L. I'd say 20%, but I don't think the NHC will....



Nah. We are one day closer to Bonnie than yesterday. I think the storm is getting its act together as we type. It will stay at 40% minimum.
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Channel 12 - Beaumont,TX

Wednesday and Thursday looks wet as another system in the Caribbean heads for South Texas. This tropical system could turn into Bonnie.
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3759. Drakoen
Quoting kmanislander:


The one that takes off to the N very quickly ?. It is partially obscured so the still would not pick it up.


Yes
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Quoting StormW:
Here's food for thought, what if...the scenario is different? Let me surmise this...look at the 06Z Surface analysis map, then think about this...the Tropical Wave seems to be "drawn incorrect". Look at the waves behind it, look how the axis runs through the upward "kinks" in the isobars, then down to the ITCZ. Look at the wave near the Yucatan. Goes from the south tip of the "kink", straight south. My thought is, it is oriented more like the wave at the Antilles, and draped across the Bahamas and Cuba, and the low we are seeing in the channel, is the southern end of the wave axis, while the stuff near Honduras is the monsoonal stuff of 96L.



Interesting thinking, but you would have to believe the NHC would know where the wave axis runs through ?.

I suspect that they have "comingled" if I might put it that way the wave passage with 96L having its true genesis from the ITCZ pushing back into the Caribbean and that has created the uncertainty over tracking as well as graphical depiction.
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3757. Hhunter
regarding 96L the models are crap..the system is decoupled. but, i see it making substantial progress today on rectifying that. I believe that it will pull together some where between the mid level swirl you see south and east and the low evel swirl near the yucatan. Lets see if this does not happen. The witches brew is starting to come together i think.
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2973
3756. guygee
Quoting angiest:


2.5 feet of motion (mostly horizontal in that area) isn't a whole lot. It is believed by some seismologists that the San Andreas proper north of the border may have up to 30 feet of motion built up in it. The 1906 San Francisco earthquake involved up to 20 feet of movement.
Houses and other buildings don't respond well when the earth moves 2.5 ft.
My brother's house sits almost on top of the San Andreas, not exactly on top but way too close for comfort.
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These two graphics don't make sense, unless there is a low off Honduras and discount the low forming in the GOM from developing. ???






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Quoting kmanislander:


The one that takes off to the N very quickly ?. It is partially obscured so the still would not pick it up.
Yes, also on the eastern quad.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Drakoen:


Yea. I would focus more on the area around the Yucatan
\


100% agree. the southern blob will collapse by late day.

this outflow boundary will enhance the northern LLC IMO.
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This shows that northward moving outflow boudary pretty well.

Outflow
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ShortWaveLoopWCarib

ShearMap is down but SST's are showing 30C.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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