A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Quoting DestinJeff:
12Z HWRF at Galveston in 66hrs

Nice tropical storm...that should bring us another 6-8" on top of the 6-12" we got last week. At least it is getting green around here again. ECMWF probably will be near Corpus.
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3900. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127814
On the 2PM TWO the NHC should only circle the northern portion of 96L, where the low level circulation is located.
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Models shift to the right

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The NHC TWO at Two PM EDT should be out soon. NHC get your crayons ready!!
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Even a TS is going to be bad here after all the rain we've had from Alex.

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3895. Dakster
Quoting Patrap:


Them K storms rare and In between ,,save for Gustav and Rita coming close..

Was 40 years here between Betsy and K.

But Cindy was only 7 weeks pre K.

So every year brings the same chance of a Hit,.


Hopefully this one isn't a "pre-k" storm and that the graduate level storm won't be coming either...
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Quoting Dakster:


You are going to have to change your nick to "NormalSeason" if this keeps up...
LOL...Wouldn't a zero storm season be a record season as well?
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3893. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Storm Total Surface Rainfall Accumulation Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127814
3892. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127814
3891. Drakoen
GFDL 12z, upper Texas coast:

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3890. Dakster
Quoting RecordSeason:
I am so tired of watching these pathetic waves do nothing.

At least the good news is the temperature has been much, much cooler ever since 93L became TD1 (01L).


You are going to have to change your nick to "NormalSeason" if this keeps up...
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3889. Patrap
Quoting Dakster:


Patrap -

Weather starting to degrade by you yet?

At least this "thing" isn't a Katrina type storm bearing down on you!


Them K storms rare and In between ,,save for Gustav and Rita coming close..

Was 40 years here between Betsy and K.

But Cindy was only 7 weeks pre K.

So every year brings the same chance of a Hit,.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127814
Quoting Murko:
...And happy independence day Venezuela!
Even Hillary thinks so, Venezuela's Independence Day.
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Still Toasty-

But Alex sure left a mark.

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3885. Patrap
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Now you gotta watch for those tornados that form in the bands. It does look like there is some banding...


I wouldnt be surprised to see a nado watch issued..as the heating kicks in.

First Marine Warning was less than 5 Minutes ago
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127814
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL, well those are the best.


haha yeah, you'd be surprised at the number of remnant systems we get in Indiana. Ike caused 80 mph wind gusts in my town
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3883. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127814
3882. Dakster
Drak - And that is bad why?
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Quoting Patrap:


Just a Lil wind and rain ..most the heavy stuff East and some training may occur in areas there.
Unless 95L Shifts gears..

But thats not likely.



Now you gotta watch for those tornados that form in the bands. It does look like there is some banding...
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Quoting tornadodude:


LOL this one takes it to me
LOL, well those are the best.
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3879. Dakster
Quoting ElConando:
Been getting A LOT of rain the past 3 days over 6 inches.


Patrap -

Weather starting to degrade by you yet?

At least this "thing" isn't a Katrina type storm bearing down on you!
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3878. Drakoen
Water Vapor Imagery shows a well defined upper level high over the northwestern Caribbean south of where 96L's low pressure center is situated. Convection grows in the region of upper level divergence, the cross-cutting flow over the Yucatan channel prevents convective development where the curvature is the strongest.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
12z TVCN and TVCC (consensus models) are the ones to pay attention to.



LOL this one takes it to me
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3876. Patrap
Quoting sarahjola:
patrap- before i go into cleaning mode can you tell me what you think about 95l and what type of weather we can expect to see from it and where do you think it will make landfall? also can you talk about 96l? thanks in advance:)


Just a Lil wind and rain ..most the heavy stuff East and some training may occur in areas there.
Unless 95L Shifts gears..

But thats not likely.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127814
3875. emguy
On second look...Notice the trade winds kinda look like they are accelerating and racing through the western Caribbean and Yucatan Channel. This actually may be the main inhibitor of 96L right now.
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3874. Patrap
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:


I don't recall Cindy being subtropical. You're comparing apples to cranberries.




I never said anything other than a climatology Lesson.

Follow the script.

Sip,

..ahhhhhhhhh
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127814
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


One will eventually win the battle as they both fight all the ingredience they both need. the one with the strongest low and available resources will normally win. Tie.... they both lose


Sorry I forgot to write IMO... I dont know this information for fact and Im not a met.. Just 35 years of watching the tropics.
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3872. IKE
Quoting Abacosurf:


Looks like Crown weather has this thought too...
Area Three: Tropical Wave in the Eastern Caribbean: I am keeping a very close eye on a tropical wave that is now located in the far eastern Caribbean. This tropical wave is producing shower and thunderstorm activity across the Lesser Antilles. This wave is currently interacting with a upper level trough of low pressure (TUTT). This interaction will strongly inhibit development from this tropical wave for the time being. My suspicion is that we will have to really watch this tropical wave later this week when it reaches an area between the western Caribbean and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions in that area will be more favorable for tropical development.

It should be noted that some of the model guidance like the Canadian and GFS operational model forecast this system to be pulled northward off of the US East Coast later this week. Looking at the overall setup, I think the trough now influencing this wave will lift out and leave this wave behind where it'll track westward towards the western Caribbean and southeastern Gulf of Mexico later this week. I think the model guidance may be feeding back too far north and east and thus forecasting a more northerly track than what is going to happen.


Here's what he says about 96L...

Area Two: Invest 96-L in the northwestern Caribbean: Invest 96-L, which is a tropical wave in the northwest Caribbean, has me scratching my head a little this morning. The convection surrounding this system has become less organized overnight and into this morning. The reason for this may be that there is some increased shear on the northeast side of this system and also that some dry air may have become ingested on the southwest side of it as well.

The latest wind shear forecast derived from the SHIPS model indicates that shear values should remain at 13 to 17 knots right into Tuesday morning and then decrease substantially to 5 knots or less after that. With that said, the latest hurricane track models indicate that Invest 96-L may be inland on the Texas coast as soon as Wednesday or Thursday and the latest intensity guidance indicates only modest strengthening with the latest LGEM model forecasting a 40 to 45 mph tropical storm.

As for the global model guidance, it appears that the guidance has a whole is shifting towards a solution of a more strung out elongated system that will slowly intensify than one that is more concentrated and one that is likely to really intensify.

At this point, my best guess is that this system will wait until it gets into the Gulf of Mexico before it starts to develop; this should happen by later on Tuesday. After that, I would say that slow intensification will occur right up to landfall which should be somewhere on the upper Texas coast between Freeport and Port Arthur on Wednesday evening. As for strength at landfall, it appears that this system will not intensify as much as previously thought, however, I do think that it will be a tropical storm upon landfall and its name will be Bonnie. With that said, the pressure gradient on the east side of this system between it and a high pressure system in the northeast Gulf of Mexico will cause south winds of 30 to 40 mph in the central Gulf of Mexico starting as early as later tonight and continuing right through Wednesday and possibly into part of Wednesday night.

Over the next 24 hours or so, showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and gusty winds can be expected across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.

All interests along the Texas and western Louisiana coast should monitor the progress of this system.
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12z TVCN and TVCC (consensus models) are the ones to pay attention to.

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Quoting DestinJeff:
12Z HWRF at Galveston in 66hrs


Good. Means it will shift before then and I don't have to worry about it ;)
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3868. bappit
Quoting sarahjola:
96l looks alot like it did last night.imo:)

Or worse. People were declaring Bonnie by today.
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3867. Dakster
Quoting LightningCharmer:
Little bit of weather spinning off 96L?

NWS radar image loop of Composite Reflectivity from Key West, FL


That explains the dark clouds to the south of me...
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patrap- before i go into cleaning mode can you tell me what you think about 95l and what type of weather we can expect to see from it and where do you think it will make landfall? also can you talk about 96l? thanks in advance:)
Member Since: September 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1293
3865. Murko
A Whale tests inconclusive due to high seas:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/world/us_and_canada/10511167.stm

And happy independence day Venezuela!
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Quoting Drakoen:


Most of the vorticity associated with that wave is north of the Caribbean. Upper level winds are not favorable for development.


Looks like Crown weather has this thought too...
Area Three: Tropical Wave in the Eastern Caribbean: I am keeping a very close eye on a tropical wave that is now located in the far eastern Caribbean. This tropical wave is producing shower and thunderstorm activity across the Lesser Antilles. This wave is currently interacting with a upper level trough of low pressure (TUTT). This interaction will strongly inhibit development from this tropical wave for the time being. My suspicion is that we will have to really watch this tropical wave later this week when it reaches an area between the western Caribbean and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions in that area will be more favorable for tropical development.

It should be noted that some of the model guidance like the Canadian and GFS operational model forecast this system to be pulled northward off of the US East Coast later this week. Looking at the overall setup, I think the trough now influencing this wave will lift out and leave this wave behind where it'll track westward towards the western Caribbean and southeastern Gulf of Mexico later this week. I think the model guidance may be feeding back too far north and east and thus forecasting a more northerly track than what is going to happen.
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3863. GPTGUY
Quoting BaltOCane:
@GPT: it's coincidence, not irony


yes my mistake...just woke up not thinking straight lol
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@GPT: it's coincidence, not irony
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96l looks alot like it did last night.imo:)
Member Since: September 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1293
I still say the COC of 96L is lacated near 17.3N 83.7W and if you look at the sat it seems that the convection that is to the north is now moving back to that maon area that I mentioned a few word up at 17.3N 83.7W I think that, that COC that was seen by some the way I see it that it is now dead with bearly any curviture and now that convecting is now bulding back to its south

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3858. GPTGUY
Its a coincidence 95L is just about in the same spot as Cindy was exactly 5 yrs. ago today.

a href="http://" target="_blank">Link
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Quoting LightningCharmer:


If, indeed, there are two lows developing in close proximity to each other, does this close proximity impede development of both lows significantly or rather is the effect negligible?


One will eventually win the battle as they both fight all the ingredience they both need. the one with the strongest low and available resources will normally win. Tie.... they both lose
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Quoting Drakoen:
Look at this and there is no question that 96L is located in the Yucatan Channel



Looks like the E Carib. wave is southeast of PR.

Also see turning around 20 to 23 W - a wave that moved off Africa maybe a day ago.
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Quoting Drakoen:


Most of the vorticity associated with that wave is north of the Caribbean. Upper level winds are not favorable for development.


The southern energy will translate west to the western carib. by late week. IMO of course.
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3853. Drakoen
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Thanks Patrap, and to think some thought 95L was RIP in yesterday. NEVER take your eyes off of one of these spinning in your backyard, especially with water temps the way they are this year. We're getting crazy little storms right now all the way in Panama City.
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3851. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Looks like HPC finally got the memo.....
Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

THE GEM GLOBAL CONTINUES TO BE CONTAMINATED BY SPURIOUS CIRCULATIONS OF TROPICAL ORIGIN.


Not saying the CMC is out-to-lunch on 96L, but the above was posted early this morning^^^
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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