A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Quoting SevereHurricane:


Call it what you want but satellite clearly shows an independent low pressure system.
Then why hasn't the NHC upgraded it to a subtropical depression?

Obviously 95L is still attached to the frontal boundary.

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Quoting SevereHurricane:


LOL! FYI, I never said it was a Tropical Depression. So I don't know why you are trying to give me a lesson on Mid-Latitude Cyclones? All I was pointing out is the impacts of this low pressure system and that it should be given more notice.
Yes but that "Hardcoreweather2010" guy, who I was originally referring to, always insisted that 95L was a subtropical depression.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
And for the record I didn't say that those problems that you stated are funny but rather that he insists that 95L is a subtropical depression when it never was.


Call it what you want but satellite clearly shows an independent low pressure system.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
95L does not qualify as a subtropical depression and never qualified as a subtropical depression. He's been constantly stating that and apparently does not read the NHC definition for a subtropical cyclone. Take a gander:

A non-frontal low pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones. This system is typically an upper-level cold low with circulation extending to the surface layer and maximum sustained winds generally occurring at a radius of about 100 miles or more from the center. In comparison to tropical cyclones, such systems have a relatively broad zone of maximum winds that is located farther from the center, and typically have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection.


LOL! FYI, I never said it was a Tropical Depression. So I don't know why you are trying to give me a lesson on Mid-Latitude Cyclones? All I was pointing out is the impacts of this low pressure system and that it should be given more notice.
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3993, summed up: high tides + lots of rain + saturated ground + waterways already above normal levels = FLOODING!
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Link
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



This blog just keeps getting spuriouser and spuriouser..


spu·ri·ous (spyr-s)
adj.
1. Lacking authenticity or validity in essence or origin; not genuine; false.
2. Of illegitimate birth.

3. Botany Similar in appearance but unlike in structure or function. Used of plant parts.

Well, isn't that special!!
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3994. Grothar
Looks healthy.

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3993. Patrap
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
108 PM CDT Monday Jul 5 2010


Update...
a coastal Flood Watch has been issued for the coastal
sections of southeast Mississippi and southeast Louisiana late
tonight through midday Wednesday. Coastal flooding may occur as with
high astronomical tides combine with above normal water levels and
an increasing southeasterly wind flow. The threat for coastal
flooding is higher on Wednesday morning than on Tuesday morning.


&&


Aviation...
deep moisture is over the area with precipitatble
water levels over 2.25 inches. Bands of convection are wrapping northwest
across the area around a low pressure center about 40 nm south of
Houma. In the short term...18z tafs account for convection over southeast
Mississippi and areas generally north of I-12...a lull between the
convection to the north and new convection firing up near the
mouth of the Mississippi River that is wrapping to the northwest.
Expect convection to become more scattered after 03z. VFR to MVFR
conditions will dominate. In thunderstorms...visibilities will fall to
1-3sm in precipitation with ceilings falling to bkn012-015cb.


92/albrecht


&&


Marine...
a small non-tropical low sitting over the near shore waters south
of Morgan City will move northwest through this afternoon then
dissipate as it moves inland. SW winds 10-15 knots dominate today
with some gusts to 20-25 knots around thunderstorms.


Short term models forecast tightening pressure gradients later tonight
through early Wednesday with high pressure remaining over Georgia and an
inverted trough extending north from a tropical wave in the
northwest Caribbean moves northwest into the central Gulf. Small
craft advisories were issued for the coastal waters for tonight
through Wednesday as winds rise to around 20 knots. The 12z nam12 has
stronger winds Tuesday into early Wednesday with some 30-35 knots reaching the
Gulf waters east of the mouth of the Mississippi River. The nam12
is also faster than the other short term guidance increasing winds
early this evening. The GFS and sref models also increase
winds...but only to around 20-25 knots and are about 12 hours slower
in the evolution of the wind field over the eastern have of the
coastal waters. At this point forecasts split the difference but
more in the direction of the GFS.


The area of disturbed weather in the northwest Caribbean is less
organized that 24 hours ago. Current National Hurricane Center
forecasts indicate that the wave will work northwest into the
central Gulf by midday Wednesday then head toward the Upper Texas or
southwest Louisiana coast. There is about a 30 percent chance that
this system will develop into a tropical cyclone. Swell to the
northwest of this wave are expected to rise to about 8 feet north the
outer Gulf waters Wednesday. Conditions will improve from the east
Thursday and Friday.


92/albrecht

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Quoting Patrap:


Has some work to do.. does look better than this morning though.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
Link
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
3990. Patrap
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Patrap, some people who don't live near inlet bays and bayou have a difficult time comprehending that when you have any abnormal rise in tides, coupled with heavy rain, especially when the ground is already saturated, is a recipe for some serious flooding. Oh, did I mention oil!



Yup...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
3989. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Quoting mcluvincane:


Yup. Its toast


? Explain
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
Quoting SevereHurricane:


Whats so funny? He's correct. This thing is already causing flooding problems to our vulnerable coastline. Water levels are already 2ft above normal in Barataria Bay as a result of the 20 knots of southerly flow.
And for the record I didn't say that those problems that you stated are funny but rather that he insists that 95L is a subtropical depression when it never was.
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Quoting WatchingThisOne:
Would anyone care to attempt a translation of: THE GEM GLOBAL CONTINUES TO BE CONTAMINATED BY SPURIOUS CIRCULATIONS OF TROPICAL ORIGIN" ?

Confused by multiple competing vortices? What "spurious circulations of tropical origin"? I'm beginning to hate the word spurious.

WTO



This blog just keeps getting spuriouser and spuriouser..
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Patrap, some people who don't live near inlet bays and bayou have a difficult time comprehending that when you have any abnormal rise in tides, coupled with heavy rain, especially when the ground is already saturated, is a recipe for some serious flooding. Oh, did I mention oil!
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3984. Grothar
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
One thing I've noted from this blog is that most of you don't have much patience.


We don't have time for patience!!!1
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
One thing I've noted from this blog is that most of you don't have much patience.


It's not that bad right now. And looking back and reading my posts, if that includes me, I don't see how making a prediction that only makes a jump from 30-40% makes me impatient.. lol these things take a while to develop. No red until the thing stacks.. which could be late tomorrow or the morning after is my best guess.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
Link
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
Quoting cg2916:


DMIN did not agree with 96L.

Yup. Its toast
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3980. beell
Dry air. Same dry air that gave 95L heck should still be in place N of the Yucatan. Aided by the ULL in the western gulf.

After 48 hrs, reinforced by dry subsident northerly flow along the eastern edge of a building upper ridge over TX and the SE. S of the zonal jet across the middle of the country.
Put that together with strong low-level southeasterlies and there could even be some higher shear along the eastern edge of 96L.

Maybe.
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Quoting SevereHurricane:


Whats so funny? He's correct. This thing is already causing flooding problems to our vulnerable coastline. Water levels are already 2ft above normal in Barataria Bay as a result of the 20 knots of southerly flow.
95L does not qualify as a subtropical depression and never qualified as a subtropical depression. He's been constantly stating that and apparently does not read the NHC definition for a subtropical cyclone. Take a gander:

A non-frontal low pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones. This system is typically an upper-level cold low with circulation extending to the surface layer and maximum sustained winds generally occurring at a radius of about 100 miles or more from the center. In comparison to tropical cyclones, such systems have a relatively broad zone of maximum winds that is located farther from the center, and typically have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection.
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3978. IKE
Quoting Topography:
Ike, is the GFS still showing that CV storm?


Not on the 12Z runs...either GFS.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
first post here. Gotta say something about 96L....it has PLENTY of time to ramp up. conditions are favorable, right? warm sst's...nice ridge above, and heck...it's hot in July.

gonna be a big year for hurricanes.
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ECMWF aiming for Brownsville...very weak low, strong SE to NW flow at 500 mb should steer right into Texas, but doesn't look strong at all on the Euro...just more rain.
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Quoting SevereHurricane:


Whats so funny? He's correct. This thing is already causing flooding problems to our vulnerable coastline. Water levels are already 2ft above normal in Barataria Bay as a result of the 20 knots of southerly flow.
Quoting Patrap:


Its futile..

Trust me on this.

LOL


True... LOL
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I'm not going to call 96L a flop just yet. I am, however, going to say that we should wait until Wednesday for any significant development.

96L is disorganized right now, yes, but it is under moderate to strong shear, up to 40 kts. This could certainly be hampering development.

If this invest takes the track that's anticipated, shear will gradually decrease. Also, SSTs are plenty warm. Right now, I say that we could see TS Bonnie heading toward the LA/TX border by the end of the week.

Basically, I agree with the NHC.



As for 95L, nothing tropical or subtropical, but an entity nonetheless. It is something that will negatively impact those in its path.
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96L is making me yawn today. Next system please.
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Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
3971. Patrap
Quoting SevereHurricane:


Whats so funny? He's correct. This thing is already causing flooding problems to our vulnerable coastline. Water levels are already 2ft above normal in Barataria Bay as a result of the 20 knots of southerly flow.


Its futile..

Trust me on this.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
3970. cg2916


DMIN did not agree with 96L.
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3968. Drakoen
96L seems like pre-Alex
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Very funny.


Whats so funny? He's correct. This thing is already causing flooding problems to our vulnerable coastline. Water levels are already 2ft above normal in Barataria Bay as a result of the 20 knots of southerly flow.
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3966. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
One thing I've noted from this blog is that most of you don't have much patience.
ditto!
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One thing I've noted from this blog is that most of you don't have much patience.
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3963. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Echo Tops Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Here we go again!
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3960. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
96's problem was it failed to close off yesterday thats what done it in
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Why'd they completely take out the Antilles disturbance? Guess conditions aren't gonna be as good as they thought they were, huh?
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
3958. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
95L is looking really good for a storm with 0% chance .LLC is trying to get under the convection with 29 mph + sustained winds. It could have easily been upgraded yesterday to a an std .


so we could have had an std in the gulf?
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take a looke at the COC at 17 N, 83 W. on the tropical floater#2 I also see another COC around 19N 84 Whttp://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html







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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
95L is looking really good for a storm with 0% chance .LLC is trying to get under the convection with 29 mph + sustained winds. It could have easily been upgraded yesterday to a an std .
Very funny.
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3953. Patrap
Whose gonna call Landfall..?

BP ?


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
97L is RIP
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115241
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The circulation is decoupled to the south and north, plus the showers and thunderstorms are disorganized. Unless 96L can fix all these things in the next 6 hours it will either likely stay at 30% or be decreased further to 20%.


Yeah, I understand that, but at 8AM I thought it would recover a little bit faster than it is now.. XD I still think it can pull itself together enough so that it won't go down to yellow.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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