A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Quoting aquak9:
Zombie alert- code red


Am I considered a zombie because I only post once in a while?
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Sooooo.... I say we all head to Hurricanes101's blog to do some hurricane trivia.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting bappit:

From the Fort Worth discussion:

Went ahead and placed vcsh in after 21z tomorrow as a low pressure system currently off the la coast will move northwest towards North Texas over the next 48 hours. Whether the system actually makes it here or not it is expected to send a tropical plume of moisture west into North Texas by tomorrow afternoon. 18z model runs were more aggressive with this moisture return which has increased confidence in precipitation chances for tomorrow afternoon.

Both 95L & 96L will provide the Dallas-Ft Worth, TX area with pretty decent rain chances :o)-build that ark!!
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5347. leo305
Quoting Hurricanes101:


NHC says it made landfall


radar says otherwise though
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5345. leo305
on radar 95L looks like its moving WNW over water, but the NHC said its inland?
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Quoting RobertM320:


Accidentally "poofed" and "flagged" in the same evening! WOW I must be earning some "respect" in here! lol

..you're forgiven, Kristina, but I'll haunt you if I lose my handle... j/k
LOL, don't worry about it. If you get a lot of those flagged a lot though is when you'll get a 24 hour ban.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting SiestaCpl:


note...COC still offshore..barely..running WNW or stalled...


NHC says it made landfall
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Quoting taco2me61:


You are so welcome sweetie. I also think we will
be getting more rain from 95L as it pushes moisture
from our East toward the west arcross Alabama.

Taco :o)


Hey Taco!
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5339. xcool
i'm not go be like jfv keep get new names .
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5338. bappit
Quoting Barnabas:
Folks: Where does 95L's moisture go next? Any chance it ends up in north central Texas?

From the Fort Worth discussion:

Went ahead and placed vcsh in after 21z tomorrow as a low pressure system currently off the la coast will move northwest towards North Texas over the next 48 hours. Whether the system actually makes it here or not it is expected to send a tropical plume of moisture west into North Texas by tomorrow afternoon. 18z model runs were more aggressive with this moisture return which has increased confidence in precipitation chances for tomorrow afternoon.
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Quoting Patrap:


note...COC still offshore..barely..running WNW or stalled...
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5336. aquak9
grothar- SANITY!!!

robertm- one poof and one flag is no big deal. You're fine.

But when you start saying "poof" to your coworkers....
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5334. IKE
Correct call by the NHC holding 96L at 30%....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
5333. xcool
btwntx08 .so .iknow
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Taz why does it say this blog has been blocked by ADMINS?
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
Thank you dear for your response.Im not trying to disquise myself for anyone.Im a happy granny of one.But its ok.Now back to weather.


You are so welcome sweetie. I also think we will
be getting more rain from 95L as it pushes moisture
from our East toward the west arcross Alabama.

Taco :o)
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5330. Patrap
96L Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop
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5327. bakers
no major computer models forcast tropical cyclone development into mid july. historically speaking the first half of july is inactive. this year is no different. it is moving along as it should quite average.
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5325. Patrap
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96L appears to be becoming better organized. The "center" relocation has helped the system. Look for a good DMAX tonight. If it gets it, it could start to develop/strengthen more quickly.
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Quoting Kristina40:
Robert, I accidentally flagged one of your posts. If admin's give you any grief it was an accident and meant for the post above yours. I'm sure they will see your post was not inflammatory or off topic though. Having mouse issues.


Accidentally "poofed" and "flagged" in the same evening! WOW I must be earning some "respect" in here! lol

..you're forgiven, Kristina, but I'll haunt you if I lose my handle... j/k
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5321. Patrap

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5320. Grothar
Small flare-up Southeast of 95L in the last few frames

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Well MH09 do you know what this means it mean that that BEST track data was tracking the mid level circulation and the Low Level circulation should still be in the Caribbean maybe it is where me and Stormpet been seeing or somewhere near there maybe hopfully 96L can stall and get better looking during D-MAX maybe a new MLC can develop over the LLC then thing will start to ramp up
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12719
5318. aquak9
Zombie alert- code red
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5317. xcool
MiamiHurri drop it
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Quoting Barnabas:
Folks: Where does 95L's moisture go next? Any chance it ends up in north central Texas?


Yes..most likely it will...
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Quoting xcool:
MiamiHurric -Freedom of speech
There is a difference between freedom of speech and disrespect. Curse all ya' want, I'm not the one that's going to banned.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
5313. cg2916
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
18Z runs



VERY consistent on a N TX landfall, and it doesn't even have an LLC yet!
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
5312. cg2916
Quoting ElConando:
I'm out till the blog regains some sanity.


Don't worry, it won't.
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5311. JLPR2
Quoting Tazmanian:
how about that lol look all


Link


No surprise there :P
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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
18Z runs



I think 96L's center has relocated farther to the south.
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Thank you dear for your response.Im not trying to disquise myself for anyone.Im a happy granny of one.But its ok.Now back to weather.
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Quoting ElConando:
95L can still do some stuff to SE LA flooding and minor damage could happen as this continues inland.


GOES 13 Sat shown WNW direction for COC running parallel along coast...will impact oil along the full length of LA wetlands..pushing oil further inland...that is bad news...it may well pull it westward into areas that had little oil before today.
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5305. calder
back to 96L... now it's percentage chance is 30%. Now this means that 3 times out of 10 this system will develop into a tropical cyclone within 48 hours. Everybody following?

Now, are there any new rules about who can post what at what times and with what regularity? No, I didn't think so.

Goodnight from bonnie scotland, this blog fries my brain... Im out.
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Quoting ElConando:
I'm out till the blog regains some sanity.
How can we be serious with a face like that?
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how about that lol look all


Link
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18Z runs

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5301. xcool
MiamiHurric -Freedom of speech
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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