A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Quoting IKE:
4030 posts in 30 hours...over 2 invests.

Imagine a cat 5?


That and with people's tendency to get bored over existing systems, you'd see a bunch of "when and where will we see invest X?"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Click FRONTS for a Chuckle and Squiggly Lines beaucoup.

LOL


95L Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop


Bro that is rather Crazy to see that....LOL! That map really needs some High Definition for that front......they really need to fix that!
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Correct COC location:

AL, 96, 2010070518, , BEST, 0, 217N, 868W, 30, 1009, DB

Terribly off on the location of the COC.

05/1745 UTC 17.3N 84.8W T1.0/1.0 96L
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
4048. beell
Quoting Patrap:
Click FRONTS for a Chuckle and Squiggly Lines beaucoup.

LOL


95L Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop


Nice little confluence axis (from post 4036) extending straight S from the mouth of the river, Pat. Bet that gets pretty active this afternoon.
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4047. bwi
SSW at 20n 85w

Continuous Winds TIME
(CDT) WDIR WSPD
12:50 pm SSW ( 211 deg ) 14.6 kts
12:40 pm SW ( 219 deg ) 19.2 kts
12:30 pm SW ( 220 deg ) 25.8 kts
12:20 pm SSW ( 195 deg ) 31.9 kts
12:10 pm SE ( 143 deg ) 20.6 kts
12:00 pm SE ( 146 deg ) 23.3 kts
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AL, 96, 2010070518, , BEST, 0, 217N, 868W, 30, 1009, DB
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Quoting IKE:
4030+ posts in 30 hours...over 2 invests.

Imagine a cat 5?
If Jeff Masters was posting then we would've had multiple entries. But 4040 posts over a CAT 5 will probably take minutes rather than hours.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
4044. Patrap
Somebody better adjust dat Warm Front N Boundary.,.itsa on da move
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127689
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
Halloween would be better!!!


NO NO the 2 days after Labor Day will be very good for this blog. THINK!....LOL
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4042. Patrap
Click FRONTS for a Chuckle and Squiggly Lines beaucoup.

LOL


95L Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127689
Quoting blsealevel:
Got a feeling 95L will hang around on land long enough to some how effect 96L path.
hope not though.


You are getting tedious, JFV.
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I have not gone far enough back in the blog to see if the Ascat pass has been posted yet but if not it clearly shows that there is no surface low near the coast of Honduras. Lots of high winds but that is all. 96L appears to be on the way NW through the channel.

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15778
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
i live in east haven conn the temp is 98F AT 2:25PM..ITS GOING TO BE VERY HOT FOR THE NORTHEAST ALL WEEK LONG..WOW IS HOT HERE..


Well, at least the humidity is only around 30%. So far. Stay air-conditioned, wear light, light-colored clothing, stay hydrated. Looks like things will start to cool off a bit on Thursday.
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4037. IKE
4030+ posts in 30 hours...over 2 invests.

Imagine a cat 5?
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4036. beell
A moot point as far as impact goes.
Still attached if you believe this...

Photobucket
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Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
i live in east haven conn the temp is 98F AT 2:25PM..ITS GOING TO BE VERY HOT FOR THE NORTHEAST ALL WEEK LONG..WOW IS HOT HERE..

Drink plenty of water & Gatorade, stay out of the sun during the hottest part of the day, stay in an air-conditioned place.

I live in TX, you are experiencing what we have in North TX for about 2 1/2 mos. Do NOT overdue it in the heat, it can cause you to become very ill or worse!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
4034. Patrap
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
108 PM CDT Monday Jul 5 2010


Update...
a coastal Flood Watch has been issued for the coastal
sections of southeast Mississippi and southeast Louisiana late
tonight through midday Wednesday. Coastal flooding may occur as with
high astronomical tides combine with above normal water levels and
an increasing southeasterly wind flow. The threat for coastal
flooding is higher on Wednesday morning than on Tuesday morning.


&&


Aviation...
deep moisture is over the area with precipitatble
water levels over 2.25 inches. Bands of convection are wrapping northwest
across the area around a low pressure center about 40 nm south of
Houma. In the short term...18z tafs account for convection over southeast
Mississippi and areas generally north of I-12...a lull between the
convection to the north and new convection firing up near the
mouth of the Mississippi River that is wrapping to the northwest.
Expect convection to become more scattered after 03z. VFR to MVFR
conditions will dominate. In thunderstorms...visibilities will fall to
1-3sm in precipitation with ceilings falling to bkn012-015cb.


92/albrecht


&&


Marine...
a small non-tropical low sitting over the near shore waters south
of Morgan City will move northwest through this afternoon then
dissipate as it moves inland. SW winds 10-15 knots dominate today
with some gusts to 20-25 knots around thunderstorms.


Short term models forecast tightening pressure gradients later tonight
through early Wednesday with high pressure remaining over Georgia and an
inverted trough extending north from a tropical wave in the
northwest Caribbean moves northwest into the central Gulf. Small
craft advisories were issued for the coastal waters for tonight
through Wednesday as winds rise to around 20 knots. The 12z nam12 has
stronger winds Tuesday into early Wednesday with some 30-35 knots reaching the
Gulf waters east of the mouth of the Mississippi River. The nam12
is also faster than the other short term guidance increasing winds
early this evening. The GFS and sref models also increase
winds...but only to around 20-25 knots and are about 12 hours slower
in the evolution of the wind field over the eastern have of the
coastal waters. At this point forecasts split the difference but
more in the direction of the GFS.


The area of disturbed weather in the northwest Caribbean is less
organized that 24 hours ago. Current National Hurricane Center
forecasts indicate that the wave will work northwest into the
central Gulf by midday Wednesday then head toward the Upper Texas or
southwest Louisiana coast. There is about a 30 percent chance that
this system will develop into a tropical cyclone. Swell to the
northwest of this wave are expected to rise to about 8 feet north the
outer Gulf waters Wednesday. Conditions will improve from the east
Thursday and Friday.



92/albrecht

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127689
We need Labor Day to hurry up and get here FAST!
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4032. Patrap
Quoting USSINS:
4021. Yeah, Pat, if 95L had a bit more time over water, I don't think it'd be quite so disrespected. Still, it can and likely will cause plenty of trouble as it is. Pesky, stubborn little system despite the dry air.


Tenacious "D" Im dubbing it.

Always interesting to watch them cozy up to the Coast and Improve in structure.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127689
Got a feeling 95L will hang around on land long enough to some how effect 96L path.
hope not though.
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Quoting extreme236:


I'm agreeing with you, not saying the NHC is wrong lol
LOL, I get it now.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
One thing I've noted from this blog is that most of you don't have much patience.
It has nothing to do with patience. I just don't understand why these systems just don't either materialize or dissipate in ten or so minutes. It's just so unfair and unnerving!!!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
So the NHC map is wrong, very interesting.


I'm agreeing with you, not saying the NHC is wrong lol
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


No he is saying that the NHC made sure it was still attached to the front before they created the surface chart that still has it attached to the front
That is what I thought.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
4026. USSINS
4021. Yeah, Pat, if 95L had a bit more time over water, I don't think it'd be quite so disrespected. Still, it can and likely will cause plenty of trouble as it is. Pesky, stubborn little system despite the dry air.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
So the NHC map is wrong, very interesting.


No he is saying that the NHC made sure it was still attached to the front before they created the surface chart that still has it attached to the front
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7397
Quoting extreme236:


Your right he should check for himself, but still I'd think the NHC would've checked too before they made that map...lol


LOL! True, however, whatever frontal boundary that was over SE LA has degenerated. Low level clouds are clearly being influenced by the low pressure system just off Lafourche Parish. There still could be something left of that boundary over in Florida though.
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Quoting extreme236:


Your right he should check for himself, but still I'd think the NHC would've checked too before they made that map...lol
So the NHC map is wrong, very interesting.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
4022. USSINS
Just like Alex, the same kind of energy has piled up in the wCaribbean. There is broad, general circulation, but unlike Alex, the steering flow is more northerly. And, I am less concerned about dry air than I am any shearing component. SST's are warm enough to generate surface lift and an adequate moisture field for development. The energy and the circulation will have to tighten around a central, surface circulation, but it has ample time to do that still. Additionally, the flow from the frontal system to the west will aid the moisture field and northerly steering.
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4021. Patrap
95L getting better organized as it slowly drifts N.

Lotsa Wet to flow into the Gulf Coast this afternoon.

Showa Powa

NEXRAD Radar
Mobile, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127689
Link
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4018. Patrap
Quoting IKE:
Tropical weather Gods...please get 95L inland and dissipated.

TIA!

$$$


Jealous..

LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127689
4017. Hhunter
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2973
Quoting extreme236:


Your right he should check for himself, but still I'd think the NHC would've checked too before they made that map...lol


you would think lol
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7397
.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
We need a new blog. This one tastes a bit stale.
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Quoting SevereHurricane:


Instead of playing the NHC frontal map card and look at Visible Satellite imagery and tell me the circulation isn't independent from that frontal boundary.


Your right he should check for himself, but still I'd think the NHC would've checked too before they made that map...lol
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...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE ERN GULF
OF MEXICO TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NW
ATLC TO THE NE GULF SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS NRN FLORIDA NEAR ST. AUGUSTINE ACROSS THE PENINSULA TO
NEAR 30N88W MEETING A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO A 1011 MB LOW S
OF ATCHAFALAYA BAY LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE W ALONG 28N92W 28N94W.
RADAR
IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF 86W ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...AS WELL AS FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 86W-92W...

From the 2pm discussion.
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Quoting SevereHurricane:


Instead of playing the NHC frontal map card and look at Visible Satellite imagery and tell me the circulation isn't independent from that frontal boundary.


it isn't that stream of clouds heading away from the system towards Florida makes it pretty evident it is still attached to the front and always has been
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7397
96L 30% of developing....not what I was expecting at all today.....Thought for sure it would be a depression today. hmmmm
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4009. Hhunter


feel like we may be starting to get cyclogenesis
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2973
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Then why hasn't the NHC upgraded it to a subtropical depression?

Obviously 95L is still attached to the frontal boundary.



Instead of playing the NHC frontal map card and look at Visible Satellite imagery and tell me the circulation isn't independent from that frontal boundary.
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4007. IKE
Tropical weather Gods...please get 95L inland and dissipated.

TIA!

$$$
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Link

Ant that special!!
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4005. Patrap
.."Lah.la..la"..

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127689
Oh no, round two? Not again! Haven't ya'll beaten the crap out of this horse enough already!
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Link

Don't see this happening at this time.
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4002. Patrap
95L Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127689
Quoting SevereHurricane:


Call it what you want but satellite clearly shows an independent low pressure system.
Then why hasn't the NHC upgraded it to a subtropical depression?

Obviously 95L is still attached to the frontal boundary.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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