A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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4100. IKE
Quoting pcbsmokey:


You notice that the ECMWF's the only one that's got 96L to the south still? CMC, GFDL, HWRF (GFS hints, but that's it) all N TX/LA border-ish


Looks like it comes in in extreme SE/southern Texas...moisture to it's north.

Several other waves on that run. Nothing serious.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
It almost looks like it's moving west.. or at least the convection appears to be..

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4097. Patrap
Quoting biloxidaisy:


Who ordered all this rain!! It's not supposed to rain on three day weekends! ;-)


Im betting BP had sumthing to do with it.

Absolutely.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting pcbsmokey:
Kristina? You in PC or PCB? (PCB, here) Fixin' to get a cell in the SW part of Ike's feeder


I'm actually in Hiland Park near the 231 Winn Dixie. Looks like the worst of it is going to pass south near the Beach.
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Quoting F4PHANTOM:
Put all three coordinates on a map and you will see the length of the tropical wave.
That isn't the point. The only correct coordinates are the ones given out by the ATCF site, SAB and TAFB are both off a few hundred miles.
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Quoting IKE:
12Z ECMWF


You notice that the ECMWF's the only one that's got 96L to the south still? CMC, GFDL, HWRF (GFS hints, but that's it) all N TX/LA border-ish
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hi eveyone. how is 95L affecting the oil? is it pushing it out, in, west or east?

i hear that they have 900 more feet to go on the relief well, so hopefully they will get it done by August. I'm trying not to believe the doomsday stuff that it's going to sink collapse and flow until empty. I won't believe it until it happens, just for my own mental well being.
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I call 96L a blob of confusion, I'm not sure anyone really knows where the true center is or where it will consolidate, I personally think its around 18/82.5, but who really knows?
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What is the current movement of 96L? I can not see a NW movement into the Gulf but more northerly IMO....
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Quoting Patrap:
Someone chuck a Sonde up real high..





Who ordered all this rain!! It's not supposed to rain on three day weekends! ;-)
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4088. IKE
12Z ECMWF
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Kristina? You in PC or PCB? (PCB, here) Fixin' to get a cell in the SW part of Ike's feeder
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4086. Patrap
ooooooooh-eee

Dats Juicy beell
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Ah, well howdy neighbor and hang on. I'm going out to move my potted veggies in under the eaves.
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4084. Patrap
Someone chuck a Sonde up real high..



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
4083. beell
95L found a moisture tap to the east.
2.1 - 2.3's on precipitable water.

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It appears I'm about to get hit again as well. Hubby and I were just about to head out for oysters if we can find any. Looks like we'd better wait a bit til this passes.
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4081. IKE
Quoting Kristina40:
Ike, are you in Pensacola or PC?


Defuniak Springs,FL.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
4080. IKE
My rain gauge is approaching 3/4's of an inch...heavy rain and thunder now. 77.0 outside.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Ike, are you in Pensacola or PC?
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4078. IKE
Quoting Patrap:
hang on Ike..!






LOL!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Lol Ike, I've been in one for days. Enjoy the ride! I still say we should have given him some kind of pet name.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT? THAT is right on the money! WOW!
I would like to know what you are looking at, really.

AL, 96, 2010070518, , BEST, 0, 217N, 868W, 30, 1009, DB,
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4075. Patrap
hang on Ike..!




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
4074. IKE
I'm in a feeder band off 95L! Woohoo!

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting TampaSpin:


YA! LMAO at you!
The discrepancy between the correct coordinates and the once SAB gave out is about 200+ miles.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
TAFB at 1.0. They as well are very off on the location of the COC.

AL, 96, 201007051745, 1840N, 8500W, TAFB, DS, VI, 5, 1010 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T, DT = 1.0 BASED ON 0.2 BANDING. NLINEMET= 1.0 PAT=


WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT? THAT is right on the money! WOW!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL!


YA! LMAO at you!
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4069. Patrap
Quoting Kristina40:
Patrap, it's been like that for days here in Panama City. 95L started very close to us here so we've been feeling it through its entire journey plus we have that stuff down near Tampa throwing stuff our way. I was on my way to work Friday morning and the sky was the deepest blue ever over my head but in every direction around me there were huge storm clouds blowing up. It was very cool.


I bet.

2010, the Season of WTH ?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting TampaSpin:


In what way? Looks pretty close to me...
LOL!
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Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
i live in east haven conn the temp is 98F AT 2:25PM..ITS GOING TO BE VERY HOT FOR THE NORTHEAST ALL WEEK LONG..WOW IS HOT HERE..
Be glad you don't live in louisiana...It feels like 98 about 6 months out of the year.
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Patrap, it's been like that for days here in Panama City. 95L started very close to us here so we've been feeling it through its entire journey plus we have that stuff down near Tampa throwing stuff our way. I was on my way to work Friday morning and the sky was the deepest blue ever over my head but in every direction around me there were huge storm clouds blowing up. It was very cool.
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TAFB at 1.0. They as well are very off on the location of the COC.

AL, 96, 201007051745, 1840N, 8500W, TAFB, DS, VI, 5, 1010 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T, DT = 1.0 BASED ON 0.2 BANDING. NLINEMET= 1.0 PAT=
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4064. Patrap
Quoting Kristina40:
For the record, thanks for sticking with 95L and keeping us up to date on it Patrap. I never counted this little bugger out if not just for its ability to cause major problems with oil central.


Well Its always good to stick with what ya seen before.
And we've seen this a lot thru the years.

And a lot of others have too.

Never discount a Vortex in the N GOM first week of July.
Climo tells us that easily.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Correct COC location:

AL, 96, 2010070518, , BEST, 0, 217N, 868W, 30, 1009, DB

Terribly off on the location of the COC.

05/1745 UTC 17.3N 84.8W T1.0/1.0 96L


In what way? Looks pretty close to me...
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4062. Patrap
Quoting beell:


Nice little confluence axis (from post 4036) extending straight S from the mouth of the river, Pat. Bet that gets pretty active this afternoon.


Im with yas on in that regard.

The Sky here is Like a Mix of tropics ,with a slight hint of fall tossed in, Crazy
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
For the record, thanks for sticking with 95L and keeping us up to date on it Patrap. I never counted this little bugger out if not just for its ability to cause major problems with oil central.
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I hope not all invests are going to be like this for the season, with all the scattered coordinates and various discrepancies between them.
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4059. s1ecr
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2010062712&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

http://wavcis.csi.lsu.edu/forecasts/forecasts.asp?modelspec=mike21

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4058. Patrap
Quoting TampaSpin:


Bro that is rather Crazy to see that....LOL! That map really needs some High Definition for that front......they really need to fix that!


Coool stuff eh, TS ?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
4057. IKE
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Correct COC location:

AL, 96, 2010070518, , BEST, 0, 217N, 868W, 30, 1009, DB

Terribly off on the location of the COC.

05/1745 UTC 17.3N 84.8W T1.0/1.0 96L


Only a 200 mile difference! LOL.


Quoting extreme236:


That and with people's tendency to get bored over existing systems, you'd see a bunch of "when and where will we see ?"


True...same questions that no one can definitely answer.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting WatchingThisOne:


Well, at least the humidity is only around 30%. So far. Stay air-conditioned, wear light, light-colored clothing, stay hydrated. Looks like things will start to cool off a bit on Thursday.
Be glad you don't live in Louisiana...feels like 98 about 6 months out of the year!
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96L improving on satellite presentation slightly.

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4054. Patrap
Quoting Kristina40:


It's doing what I was afraid it would do, pulling off that very warm water to its West.

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/gulfmex.cf.gif


O yeah..it found a cozy spot fo sho. And the West side is building some stuff too.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting Patrap:
Click FRONTS for a Chuckle and Squiggly Lines beaucoup.

LOL


95L Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop


It's doing what I was afraid it would do, pulling off that very warm water to its West.

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/gulfmex.cf.gif
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Quoting F4PHANTOM:
Halloween would be better!!!


December would be the best, cold and snow, Nor'easter season!
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Quoting IKE:
4030 posts in 30 hours...over 2 invests.

Imagine a cat 5?


That and with people's tendency to get bored over existing systems, you'd see a bunch of "when and where will we see invest X?"
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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