A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Sure looks like 96L wants to shoot the channel
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4150. leo305
Jim Cantore is one of the best mets I've seen..

btw.. yea I agree with him..
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
Convection with 95L looks pathetic.
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4148. Patrap
96L Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
Quoting TampaSpin:
Again i can't wait for 2 days after Labor Day!.....THINK WHAT THAT MEANS!!....ROFLMAO


LOL! 2nd that!
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604
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Quoting Patrap:
NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Vertically Integrated Liquid Range 124 NMI



Dats cuz he's a Lurker..




LMAO Pat, I really believe that he does check this blog out occasionally.
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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
JimCantore   Latest visible satellite imagery and wind observations south of LA suggest invest95L is getting better organized and could be forming a TD.
Systems don't develop a "TD". And for probably the 10th time, 95L is attached to a frontal boundary.
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4142. Patrap
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
JimCantore   Latest visible satellite imagery and wind observations south of LA suggest invest95L is getting better organized and could be forming a TD.



Dats cuz he's a Lurker..


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
Is 96L looking any better than it was this morning?

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JimCantore   Latest visible satellite imagery and wind observations south of LA suggest invest95L is getting better organized and could be forming a TD.
Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
4139. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
current conditions at my location in ontario

mainly sunny
Temperature: 92.8°F
Dewpoint: 73.8°F
Humidity: 54 %
Wind: WSW 15 gust 22 mph
Humidex: 112
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting truecajun:


1 month and 3 days counting!!!!!!!!!


I'm not sure this blog can surive that long...
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


Hi Homeless...


Hey Tex. :)
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Quoting truecajun:


1 month and 3 days counting!!!!!!!!!


except i must say that i am very much enjoying not have to spend 1 hr in the car for morning carpool and another in the car for afternoon carpool.
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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:




Same T number that 96L has had for the last 24 hours :)


And that number is too low. What's your point?
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


Its also still attached to the front lol

but I am seeing signs that finally that may be changing, but it may run out of time

now if it moves westward along the coast and doesn't go inland, it may have a shot


Would it even be possible to move westward? Looks like there really isn't enough real estate left.. or steering..
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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:




Same T number that 96L has had for the last 24 hours :)
No one said 96L is a tropical depression.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Hi Homeless...
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Quoting TampaSpin:


I want Grade School to start! That was my point......LOL


1 month and 3 days counting!!!!!!!!!
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Quoting extreme236:


Not sufficient convective organization. T numbers are too low.


Same T numbers that 96L has had for the last 24 hours :)
Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
actually tampa its 3 days after labor world champs open the nfl season in the dome on that thursday so its 3 days lol


I want Grade School to start! That was my point......LOL
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Quoting extreme236:


Not sufficient convective organization. T numbers are too low.


Its also still attached to the front lol

but I am seeing signs that finally that may be changing, but it may run out of time

now if it moves westward along the coast and doesn't go inland, it may have a shot
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7358
Quoting DoubleAction:
Albeit very small, 95L has all the characteristics to be called a tropical depression as we speak, clearly has a closed surface circulation and peak sustained winds are at least 26knots per buoy readings right now.


Not sufficient convective organization. T numbers are too low.
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actually tampa its 3 days after labor world champs open the nfl season in the dome on that thursday so its 3 days lol
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Quoting AllStar17:


I agree.


looks like he's headed for st. mary parish and iberia parish for landfall. i'd like to be on the bay at cypremort point right now.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Well as you say i am wrong......I will say you are wrong!
Perfectly fine. I'm just pointing out what the ATCF site says.
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We in mobile prefer the designation "South Alabama" because we ain't "lower" than nobody.
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Quoting DoubleAction:
Albeit very small, 95L has all the characteristics to be called a tropical depression as we speak, clearly has a closed surface circulation and peak sustained winds are at least 26knots per buoy readings right now.
Still attached to a frontal boundary. No tropical depression or subtropical depression.
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actually....95L is on a NE track, if you believe the radar....

coming into Mobile...a really gully-washer...

96L will be a depression within the next 48-72 hours....landfall northern gulf coast. cat 2 or higher imho
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
You are too south and east.

217N, 868W,


Well as you say i am wrong......I will say you are wrong!
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Albeit very small, 95L has all the characteristics to be called a tropical depression as we speak, clearly has a closed surface circulation and peak sustained winds are at least 26knots per buoy readings right now.
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Seems the blog is kinda slow today....I guess there isn't as much excitement as we thought there might be today over 96L.
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no TS but respectable enuf:

Link
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 490
Pressure is dropping slowly here. Not sure if it's a cause of 95L, but I am very close to it.


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4113. IKE
Quoting Topography:


Is it showing the CV storm?


Nope.


Quoting RuBRNded:


I just moved from Crestview 6 months ago, aka Lower Alabama


Hello!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting TampaSpin:
I would put the most dominiate COC if there was one on 96L near ...

20N 85W....that is what i am seeing!


I agree.
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4111. Patrap
snicker




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
Quoting TampaSpin:
I would put the most dominiate COC if there was one on 96L near ...

20N 85W....that is what i am seeing!
You are too south and east.

217N, 868W,
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Again i can't wait for 2 days after Labor Day!.....THINK WHAT THAT MEANS!!....ROFLMAO
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4108. Patrap
96L 18Z Model Plots
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
I think the ECMWF is stuck on a southern track and eventually will lose credibility

Quoting IKE:


Looks like it comes in in extreme SE/southern Texas...moisture to it's north.

Several other waves on that run. Nothing serious.
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I would put the most dominiate COC if there was one on 96L near ...

20N 85W....that is what i am seeing!
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Looks like its a good thing 95L is about to make landfall, because it looks to be really coming together now.
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4104. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
Quoting IKE:


Defuniak Springs,FL.


I just moved from Crestview 6 months ago, aka Lower Alabama
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A site someone posted yesterday has all the models plots on it and they are showing a more consensus of Corpus Christi up to the west end of Galveston. Except for one that takes it into LA. Not sure if these are accurate.

LINK
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.