A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
So Miami you are saying that the Fat Lady is warming up and about to sing to 95L


95L's circulation will be coming onshore within the next hour or so, and no development will take place in that period of time.
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4200. Patrap



2 products issued by NWS for: 27NM SW Grand Isle LA
Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1101 AM CDT MON JUL 5 2010

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>040-
046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-061615-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
TANGIPAHOA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-
PEARL RIVER-HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
1101 AM CDT MON JUL 5 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL WATERS
OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS DAYTIME
HEATING MIXES WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE. THE STRONGEST STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF...HEAVY RAINFALL...CLOUD-TO-
GROUND LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN LOW-LYING AREAS.

MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN MARINE
ZONES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR INCREASED
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH THREE...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS...
A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TRANSPORTING DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREAT FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINS...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING FREQUENT
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN LOW-LYING AREAS.

MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN MARINE
ZONES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15
TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD.
SEAS WILL PEAK 5 TO 8 FEET ON WEDNESDAY.

.DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE OVER THE PERIOD AS A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA.
ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY
HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
4198. USSINS
4198. Moving pretty fast in that last radar loop - high top must have caught a faster, southerly flow and decided to scoot on towards shore.
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So Miami you are saying that the Fat Lady is warming up and about to sing to 95L


Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
4196. Patrap
Quoting TampaSpin:


Your obviously getting a strong onshore Wind...much oil coming onshore that you know of.


Im sure its not helping in Barataria Bay and Points east.

Lotsa Marsh there and 95 is all alone in SSTs that favor him for another few hours into Sunset
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
4194. guygee
Quoting hatteraswind:
wow,TPC has a new word for the model runs..."contaminated"...bets on this being a contaminated season??
Contaminated with Spurious Convective Feedback? Sure, it is built-in so count on it, plus plenty of the seriously unspurious convection.
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Quoting Patrap:


I'll be getting into my Hurricane/Depression suit and Going Live with the 95L Landfall here this evening.



Your obviously getting a strong onshore Wind...much oil coming onshore that you know of.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
If 96L gets it act together before moving into the GOM we will have a MAJOR HURRICANE COMING!

And i believe 95L is at least a TD now.....at least so......





so confusing. It is going to form, it isn't going to form....it will go here. No, it will go there......aaawwwww......if only we had a crystal ball to see where the storms would go and how strong they will be.
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
4191. angiest
Quoting extreme236:


I didn't know 95L could twitter LOL


eyjafjallajokull is on Facebook...
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Quoting SevereHurricane:


Guess I'm not crazy then? lol


Doesn't matter much, 95L is making landfall now as we speak

but it was never a TD because that front was always attached
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
4189. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
Quoting Patrap:


I'll be getting into my Hurricane/Depression suit and Going Live with the 95L Landfall here this evening.



LOL!
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
It does appear that 95L may not be attached to the front now, but it is too late IMO

the system does not have enough organized convection and will not have enough time

If 95L had done this 2 days ago, no question it would have gotten a name


Guess I'm not crazy then? lol
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I wish the cap locks key would have never been invented.
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4185. leo305
Quoting extreme236:


Uh...might wanna go back and check your history. At that point in time he was a minimal tropical storm and on a downward trend.


exactly.. 55mph tropical storm at that moment in time
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
Quoting whs2012:
Texas Hurricane**

Lol, COC is an abbreviation for Center of Circulation...and he is improving, but I just can't see the COC, maybe I'm blind? lol


yeah...lol....I can't see the COC either...
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
If 96L gets it act together before moving into the GOM we will have a MAJOR HURRICANE COMING!

And i believe 95L is at least a TD now.....at least so......



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Quoting IKE:


Nope.




Hello!


Hello I'm from LA~ Lower Alabama
sheri
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4180. USSINS
4165. TS, yeah, the HPC even had an "H" slapped over it last evening. It just needed a little more time over open water - a little too close to land and the dry air to contend. Still, quite impressive for a tiny system this close to shore. It's been interesting to watch.
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...and when football season starts, we can send up tp Baton Rouge on saturday nights to cover the LSU games.....

Oil Blimp
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Quoting leo305:


convection with TROPICAL STORM CHRIS (55MPH) looks pathetic too

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/quicklinks/best_of_esl/IOTW/images/chris2.jpg


Uh...might wanna go back and check your history. At that point in time he was a minimal tropical storm and on a downward trend.
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Quoting extreme236:


I didn't know 95L could twitter LOL
LOL. Meant to say Jim Cantore.
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Quoting leo305:


center of circulation


oh ok. I don't see that, but it looks like it is building more convection....so I think anyways...
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
It does appear that 95L may not be attached to the front now, but it is too late IMO

the system does not have enough organized convection and will not have enough time

If 95L had done this 2 days ago, no question it would have gotten a name
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL. I can't believe that 95L actually said this on twitter:

"Latest visible satellite imagery and wind observations south of LA suggest invest95L is getting better organized and could be forming a TD."

No wonder he works at the weather channel.


I didn't know 95L could twitter LOL
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Actully it appears 96L is really trying to pull things together now.......lets see if it continues....

Albit......FRont attached or not.....and i really don't see it attached now.....95L is a nice spinner...and does not look nor have the appearance of anything but, Tropical now...IMO!
If anything it is now attached to a WARM FRONG not a COLD FRont now......


I'd kinda like to be attached to a warm frong right now. I think it would feel good
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I guess then 95L will go down as the little invest that couldn't. You can tell the poor little guy just wanted a name ...
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


95L said it? wow cool lol
LMAO! Read it again.
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4166. leo305
Quoting TexasHurricane:


I don't even know what that is? So, it isn't improving??


center of circulation
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
Actully it appears 96L is really trying to pull things together now.......lets see if it continues....

Albit......FRont attached or not.....and i really don't see it attached now.....95L is a nice spinner...and does not look nor have the appearance of anything but, Tropical now...IMO!
If anything it is now attached to a WARM FRONT not a COLD FRont now......
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL. I can't believe that 95L actually said this on twitter:

"Latest visible satellite imagery and wind observations south of LA suggest invest95L is getting better organized and could be forming a TD."

No wonder he works at the weather channel.


95L said it? wow cool lol
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
wow,TPC has a new word for the model runs..."contaminated"...bets on this being a contaminated season??
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Quoting whs2012:


Where's the COC?


I don't even know what that is? So, it isn't improving??
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
4161. Patrap
Radar shows Convection..



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
LOL. I can't believe that Jim Cantore actually said this on twitter:

"Latest visible satellite imagery and wind observations south of LA suggest invest95L is getting better organized and could be forming a TD."

No wonder he works at the weather channel.
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Quoting leo305:
Jim Cantore is one of the best mets I've seen..

btw.. yea I agree with him..


He is one of the best "reporters" that I have ever seen
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4156. leo305
Quoting extreme236:
Convection with 95L looks pathetic.


convection with TROPICAL STORM CHRIS (55MPH) looks pathetic too

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/quicklinks/best_of_esl/IOTW/images/chris2.jpg
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
4155. Patrap
Quoting extreme236:
Convection with 95L looks pathetic.


Cloudtops arent convection..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129903
Quoting Patrap:
96L Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop


It does seem to be improving...I think?....anyone?
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
Quoting Patrap:
Someone chuck a Sonde up real high..





Just did....it's okay, it came back down again!!!!!!!
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Sure looks like 96L wants to shoot the channel
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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