A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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4251. calder
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
right now I see the true COC of 96L near 17.5/6N 83.7/8W


why have the models been initialised north of this?
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4240. OK it's a warm core Low attached to a stationary front. Hopefully this moves inland quick, before it sheds the stationary front & creates major problems.
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Can we please end all discussion/bickering about 95L which soon enough will be onshore and therefore no longer a threat to develop. 96L is much more of a concern than 95L will ever be as it has more of a chance at becoming a significant player in the next few days as it becomes better organized and has much more time over water than 95L has.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


I think some area losing judgement on what does in fact qualify a system for classification of a TD or TS

95L has always been attached to the front and has never had sufficient organization or persistence to get upgraded

Again at this point, whether it is just an invest or a TD is of very little meaning, impacts will be the same either way

At this point 95L is producing widespread heavy rain, gusty winds & water rises along the LA coastline.

The main reason why we're watching 95L so closely is due to the potential impacts on the BP oil spill area, LA, MS, AL, FL impacted by wind/tide driving oil onshore.

Hopefully this feature will move onshore and dissipate quickly so the BP clean-up can go on unhindered.
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right now I see the true COC of 96L near 17.5/6N 83.7/8W
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95L Coastal ASCAT
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Nothing really worth watching IMO. Just a couple of weak systems with no chance of becoming much more than a bad afternoon thunderstorm.
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I the COC arond 17 n fizzled the last couple hours. Looks like something is trying to take over around 85 w 20 n, but I'm not seeing a COC anywhere at this point - just a broad general circulation with eddies all over the place. I'm currious if something will take over on that burst of convestion that we're seing around 85 w 20 n? Check out the shortwave view on floater #2. Notice the circulation that gets stretched out east/west around 17 in the last few frames. I think this thing will develop once it finds a center, but with all those eddie circulations, it keeps fighting itself.
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4242. Dakster
Patrap, is it raining 10w40?

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4241. Patrap
I can see the red Warm front in between the Clouds outside..

Pfftth..LOL
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95L warm core



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Nonetheless, 95L does look better organized, but it's just out of real estate.
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Link
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4237. Patrap
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


I think some area losing judgement on what does in fact qualify a system for classification of a TD or TS

95L has always been attached to the front and has never had sufficient organization or persistence to get upgraded

Again at this point, whether it is just an invest or a TD is of very little meaning, impacts will be the same either way
Very true. But what I previously meant is that if 95L wouldn't of originated from a frontal boundary, or if the frontal boundary wouldn't of come into play that 95L would've become a tropical depression.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091


Still attached to the frontal boundary, but looks like a TD.
Member Since: February 21, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 340
Quoting hunkerdown:
depends on the convection associated with said fart...


You'd have to give it a T# of 2
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rather than childless bickering amount whether 95L is this or that...let's just follow the thang.....look for a possibility it will travel east along the coast.....lol lol lol....
then ramp up to a depression or TS.....
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4232. Patrap
Itsa, Itsa,.Itsa..

Itsa Raining and the winds a blowing some.

pffffth..
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Quoting extreme236:


I doubt it. T1.0 is not sufficient organization.


I think some area losing judgement on what does in fact qualify a system for classification of a TD or TS

95L has always been attached to the front and has never had sufficient organization or persistence to get upgraded

Again at this point, whether it is just an invest or a TD is of very little meaning, impacts will be the same either way
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Quoting extreme236:


I doubt it. T1.0 is not sufficient organization.
Then again, the fact that it attached to a frontal boundary deteriorates satellite appearance, thus Dvorak numbers are greatly impacted or reduced.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
4229. Patrap
Quoting hunkerdown:
depends on the convection associated with said fart...


Always,..LOL
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Quoting Patrap:
Some cant quantify a fart here..

LOL
depends on the convection associated with said fart...
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.
Member Since: February 21, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 340
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
There is no doubt that if 95L were not attached to the frontal boundary it would be a tropical depression.


I doubt it. T1.0 is not sufficient organization.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
now I don't think we should downplay 95Ls impacts on the areas it is affecting

It is impacting the oil spill region and the heating of the day will give you guys in LA a nasty weather day.


However in terms of whether 95L deserves to be a TD or TS, IMO it does not. It was always attached to the front, now it is not but it is about to make landfall.

That being said, sometimes even the invests can have a significant impact on land


As I said earlier, 2 foot water rise in Baritaria Bay has occured as a result of the Southerly Flow associated with 95L. Infact, the water has inundated peoples yards outside of the levee protection system.
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4224. Patrap
2 products issued by NWS for: 27NM SW Grand Isle LA
Marine Weather Statement

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
221 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2010

GMZ550-570-052115-
221 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS...


AT 213 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS INDICATED A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS UP
TO 33 KNOTS...9 NM SOUTHWEST OF ISLE DERNIERS...MOVING NORTHWEST AT
10 KNOTS.


THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
8 NM SOUTHWEST OF ISLE DERNIERS AT 245 PM CDT...
JUST SOUTHWEST OF CAILLOU BAY AT 345 PM CDT...

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO 33 KNOTS...LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES...
LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE
HARBOR IMMEDIATELY UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2924 9118 2928 9121 2935 9088 2931 9092
2923 9078 2917 9092 2916 9075 2913 9077
2920 9067 2928 9069 2926 9060 2937 9052
2931 9048 2937 9044 2929 9039 2925 9022
2816 9011 2813 9121 2928 9130
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It has absolutely not met all the criteria

take a look at the convection current with 95L, it is certainly not persistent nor strong enough for classification

whether it is classified or not is irrelevant at this point
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4222. Patrap
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.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting TropicalNonsense:


Prior to landfall,it met all the "tropical" criteria
except for the NHC acknowledgement.


Still never had sufficient organization.
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4219. bappit
Nice sea breeze along the Yucatan visible on the 96L floater.
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1258 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2010

.AVIATION...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING AN EDDY OVER THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS EAST OF VERMILION BAY OFF TERREBONE PARISH. MOVEMENT IS
UNCERTAIN DUE TO REFORMATION OF THE CENTER CLOSER TO THE CONVECTION.
DRIER AIR IS BEING ENTRAINED FROM THE NORTH. SOME VFR CIGS IN BANDS
ABOUT THIS CIRCULATION. ENHANCED CU EAST OF THE ATCHAFALAYA SHOULD
BE SPREADING WESTWARD INTO LFT AND ARA TERMINALS SO WILL INCLUDE
VCTS THERE. BY 20Z WENT WITH A TEMPO MVFR WITH TSTMS FOR LFT AND ARA.
THE NAM IS TAKING THIS SYSTEM AS AN EASTERLY WAVE WESTWARD WITH
THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE WETTER EASTERN PORTION BY TUESDAY.
THEREFORE WILL GO WITH VCTS ALL LOCATIONS IN THE MORNING AROUND
15Z WITH TEMPO MVFR IN TSTMS.
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Actually, when 96L ramps up, the movement will be more poleward....

I think it will be a northern gulf coast event..cat 2 or perhaps stronger. need feedback on the gulf conditions in 3-4 days. if we have a nice ridge, and moist air....explosion city!

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Quoting Hurricanes101:
now I don't think we should downplay 95Ls impacts on the areas it is affecting

It is impacting the oil spill region and the heating of the day will give you guys in LA a nasty weather day.


However in terms of whether 95L deserves to be a TD or TS, IMO it does not. It was always attached to the front, now it is not but it is about to make landfall.

That being said, sometimes even the invests can have a significant impact on land


Prior to landfall,it met all the "tropical" criteria
except for the NHC acknowledgement.
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Quoting Patrap:
NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile Range 124 NMI



That is sure at least close to Depression it appears...
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Quoting leo305:


exactly.. 55mph tropical storm at that moment in time


Not it wasn't. That image says August 3rd. On August 3rd his peak intensity was 40kt.
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4213. Patrap
Lower Plaquemines
Forecasts for Louisiana — Return to U.S. Severe Weather
Current Severe Weather

Coastal Flood Watch

Statement as of 12:04 PM CDT on July 05, 2010

... Coastal Flood Watch in effect from late tonight through Wednesday
afternoon...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a coastal
Flood Watch... which is in effect from late tonight through
Wednesday afternoon.

The combination of high astronomical tides... above normal water
levels... and increasing southeast winds will give the potential
for coastal flooding around high tide Tuesday morning and
Wednesday morning. The threat for coastal flooding is higher with
the Wednesday morning high Tide.

Water levels are currently 1 to 2 feet above normal. Tuesday
morning high tides are generally between 7 and 10 am CDT. Tides
may reach 2 to locally 3 feet above normal values.

Wednesday morning high tides... between about 8 and 11 am
CDT... are expected to run 2 to 3 feet... and locally higher... above
predicted astronomical values.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...


Flooding may result in water covering roadways and low lying
property around high tide in coastal areas along the Mississippi
coast... and near tidal lakes... outside of hurricane protection
levees in southeast Louisiana.


A coastal Flood Watch means that conditions favorable for
flooding are expected to develop. Coastal residents should be
alert for later statements or warnings... and take action to
protect property.
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Oh 95L is coming to visit me, I'll take it, and anything with a name can go "poof" and yes that is a WISHCAST.
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4211. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 1.45 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

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4210. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile Range 124 NMI

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now I don't think we should downplay 95Ls impacts on the areas it is affecting

It is impacting the oil spill region and the heating of the day will give you guys in LA a nasty weather day.


However in terms of whether 95L deserves to be a TD or TS, IMO it does not. It was always attached to the front, now it is not but it is about to make landfall.

That being said, sometimes even the invests can have a significant impact on land
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annnnnnnd......9kts in Houma w/29.88 Falling
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4206. Patrap
Quoting USSINS:
4198. Moving pretty fast in that last radar loop - high top must have caught a faster, northerly flow and decided to scoot on towards shore.


I sped up the frame sequence to Warp,,to show the unattached Synoptic Clarity for the Eyeball challenged
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4205. fishcop
http://www.caymanweather.com/
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One thing is for sure, florida has had some serious rain and more is on the way, never had this much so early in the season.
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Land friction going to spawn some pretty strong thunder storms from 95L looks like Houma might get caught up in some of that train effect tonight and in the morning
hope it don't last to long.
East of houma to.
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I dunno, Tim....Highest winds I could find (metars in GRL3) around 95L were 8kts in NOla *shrugs*
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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
So Miami you are saying that the Fat Lady is warming up and about to sing to 95L


95L's circulation will be coming onshore within the next hour or so, and no development will take place in that period of time.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.