A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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TampaSpin, thats it no soup for you!
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Quoting winter123:

Not to be the doom-bringer, but this is just a warning sign. One day probably within our lifetimes a strong storm instead of an invest will hit in this location, while strengthening (vs. Katrina which hit east of the area while weakening) and it will be flooded for good and uninhabitable.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It says 96L now.


lol

I was just messing. :P
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Looking on IR Rainbow, looks like the "C" is starting to close up, which means it's strengthening.
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4297. USSINS
Quoting winter123:

...(vs. Katrina which hit east of the area while weakening) and it will be flooded for good and uninhabitable.



I'm not certain "Katrina" and "weakening" belong in the same sentence together. Hardly anything about it was weak except those that underestimated its fury. The SSS landfalling scale of a Cat 3 was hardly descriptive of its massive catastrophic power. I was inland, about 150 miles away and had sustained CAT 3 winds. It exited the nEast portion of the state still a Cat 1.

Whatever describes the "top" of or the "worst" of the scale - that's what Katrina was, a 5 or whatever one wants to call it, but it simply was not just a Cat 3 - that's for certain.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


No you said i was wrong...i posted something completely different than mine......I and many are really getting feed up with this....can't say how many emails i have on file.....JUST SAYIN!
Please put me on ignore, it will be greatly appreciated.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
4295. angiest
Quoting Patrap:



I think Tampa and Miami go furst.

But thats just me.



If Ike had followed the forecast track a 20-30 foot surge would have gone up the Houston Ship Channel instead of just off to the north and east as happened. Not to mention putting the core of Houston in the eastern eyewall. And yet much of Houston was a tremendous mess for some weeks after getting hit by the "weak" side of the storm.

So we still haven't had our own worst case.
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Quoting FLdewey:


Imagine if you will... (cue music)
well your not 13, lol
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Quoting FLdewey:


Imagine if you will...


Intresting tad of info. Rita put 8 ft of water in my yard, Ike put 6 ft looks like the local levee program is making progress.
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4290. aquak9
4277- thanks. gotta wait for it to load. Good thing you tossed that in, I was actually in the mood to butcher a zombie, but could not find any around.

Lucky us.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Immaturity to the maximum I see. Anyways I never said that you were wrong, I was just pointing out where the ATCF site labeled the coordinates.


No you said i was wrong...you posted something completely different than mine......I and many are really getting feed up with this....can't say how many emails i have on file.....JUST SAYIN!
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4288. will45
Quoting aquak9:


garbage in, garbage out


yup dats a good way to put it lol
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That is where i said the CoC was most likely at...until a 13yo...thought he knew better.....LOL....JUST SAYIN!

13yo? LMAO!!!! (if you are talking about me...I'm 38!!!

Irregardless - I was looking there after you pointed it out, and can somewhat see something trying to form there, but it is not a coc...yet, but with the burst of convection, it may materialize. I can't see jack in the channel where the models are initializing. There was (past tense) an eddy around 17, but it got shread pretty good the last couple of hours.
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4286. Patrap
Quoting winter123:

Not to be the doom-bringer, but this is just a warning sign. One day probably within our lifetimes a strong storm instead of an invest will hit in this location, while strengthening (vs. Katrina which hit east of the area while weakening) and it will be flooded for good and uninhabitable.



I think Tampa and Miami go furst.

But thats just me.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Aquak9 just for you :)


The won't ask for directions either
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4283. aquak9
Quoting will45:
Models will have a lot of error until a good tight center can be established.


garbage in, garbage out
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The first rains of 95L are here, no grass cutting again today.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


?
It says 96L now.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
4280. xcool
20% ON 96L HERE.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
96 Finally building cold cloud tops again. Hope it runs out of time before we do.
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4276. will45
Models will have a lot of error until a good tight center can be established.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That could be 2 things, none of which the COC.

1) Odd outflow boundary formation.
2) MLC.

The true low level circulation of Alex is much further north around the Yucatan channel.


?
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Quoting Patrap:

Not to be the doom-bringer, but this is just a warning sign. One day probably within our lifetimes a strong storm instead of an invest will hit in this location, while strengthening (vs. Katrina which hit east of the area while weakening) and it will be flooded for good and uninhabitable.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Quoting txwxnut2:
I the COC arond 17 n fizzled the last couple hours. Looks like something is trying to take over around 85 w 20 n, but I'm not seeing a COC anywhere at this point - just a broad general circulation with eddies all over the place. I'm currious if something will take over on that burst of convestion that we're seing around 85 w 20 n? Check out the shortwave view on floater #2. Notice the circulation that gets stretched out east/west around 17 in the last few frames. I think this thing will develop once it finds a center, but with all those eddie circulations, it keeps fighting itself.



That is where i said the CoC was most likely at...until a 13yo...thought he knew better.....LOL....JUST SAYIN!
Immaturity to the maximum I see. Anyways I never said that you were wrong, I was just pointing out where the ATCF site labeled the coordinates.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Afternoon everyone. It's sunny with light winds here just south of N.O. (across the river) but as I can see from the radar, that's all about to change...
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At least the convection on 96L is staying consistent.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The GFS forecasts for the anticyclone currently slightly to the west of 96L to move in line with it so yes, conditions at least in the upper levels will be favorable when 96L is in the GOM.


Seems like were looking at something similar to how Alex developed, except farther north and west.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
right now I see the true COC of 96L near 17.5/6N 83.7/8W
That could be 2 things, none of which the COC.

1) Odd outflow boundary formation.
2) MLC.

The true low level circulation of 96L is much further north around the Yucatan channel.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Link

Looks like 96L is going to traverse through the channel.
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4266. xcool
poor 96L
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
4265. hydrus
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
right now I see the true COC of 96L near 17.5/6N 83.7/8W
....Link Plenty of convection....................Its the size of the Yucatan peninsula.
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4264. aquak9
Quoting whs2012:
I may be a newbie, but isn't it sorta of odd how the models are in so much agreement about the track of 96L? Like, all of the tracks (minus 1 or 2 weird ones) are bringing it east of Corpus Cristi, and west of Beaumont, TX?


the tracks can't even initialize correctly cause there's no defnitive COC.

Kinda like five men running a race, but no one knows where the starting point is.
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Quoting txwxnut2:
I the COC arond 17 n fizzled the last couple hours. Looks like something is trying to take over around 85 w 20 n, but I'm not seeing a COC anywhere at this point - just a broad general circulation with eddies all over the place. I'm currious if something will take over on that burst of convestion that we're seing around 85 w 20 n? Check out the shortwave view on floater #2. Notice the circulation that gets stretched out east/west around 17 in the last few frames. I think this thing will develop once it finds a center, but with all those eddie circulations, it keeps fighting itself.



That is where i said the CoC was most likely at...until a 13yo...thought he knew better.....LOL....JUST SAYIN!
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Quoting TexasHurricane:
Are conditions in the GOM more favorable for 96L when it gets there?
The GFS forecasts for the anticyclone currently slightly to the west of 96L to move in line with it so yes, conditions at least in the upper levels will be favorable when 96L is in the GOM.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
4260. hydrus
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
right now I see the true COC of 96L near 17.5/6N 83.7/8W
I see it!! I see IT!!
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Quoting txwxnut2:
I the COC arond 17 n fizzled the last couple hours. Looks like something is trying to take over around 85 w 20 n, but I'm not seeing a COC anywhere at this point - just a broad general circulation with eddies all over the place. I'm currious if something will take over on that burst of convestion that we're seing around 85 w 20 n? Check out the shortwave view on floater #2. Notice the circulation that gets stretched out east/west around 17 in the last few frames. I think this thing will develop once it finds a center, but with all those eddie circulations, it keeps fighting itself.


Wondering about that myself.
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Link
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why have the models been initialised north of this?

That COC has been elongated - see the shortwave - but I have the contention that the models are initialized too far north. That is why making "landfall" predictions w/o a true COC are pee in the wind, and should be considered generalities until we have a better defined COC.
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Are conditions in the GOM more favorable for 96L when it gets there?
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Quoting LADobeLady:
so the BP clean-up can go on unhindered

In order for that to happen you have to remove the Army Corps of engineers and the USCG from the equation.

Sorry, I cannot help in that department!!
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Quoting TankHead93:
Can we please end all discussion/bickering about 95L which soon enough will be onshore and therefore no longer a threat to develop. 96L is much more of a concern than 95L will ever be as it has more of a chance at becoming a significant player in the next few days as it becomes better organized and has much more time over water than 95L has.

Yes :o)!! Remember the folks in Louisiana are concerned about it's impact on the BP oil spill.

As 96L slowly boils in the W Caribbean Sea.
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so the BP clean-up can go on unhindered

In order for that to happen you have to remove the Army Corps of engineers and the USCG from the equation.
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4251. calder
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
right now I see the true COC of 96L near 17.5/6N 83.7/8W


why have the models been initialised north of this?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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