A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Quoting Bordonaro:

That is 96L's problem. It still is an open wave, no closed center of circulation is apparent!

The lower pressures in that area, are due to high SST & high TCHP keeps the system popping off large masses of heavy convection, that waxes & wanes. Conditions are favorable for slow development, of course, we all have to wait.
Yes, I get "antsy" sometimes because this is the area (around Yucatan) that I like to start "getting ready" if need be...but hope that's not needed. Thanks!
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Quoting Patrap:
Quoting Patrap:
5 years ago tonight



They don't even look much different! Why is 95L not even a TD then?
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4349. Patrap
Quoting LADobeLady:


Just a warm up for what was to come.


Lil did we know then..


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128651
Quoting Tazmanian:
we could see 96L take off fast in the gulf

Yes, that is very true, scary low wind shear in the western Gulf of Mexico!!
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Quoting Patrap:
5 years ago tonight

<


Just a warm up for what was to come.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
we could see 96L take off fast in the gulf
It's likely that the bulk of organization and development will take place in the Gulf of Mexico.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting winter123:

NVM got it. I thought the COC (weak now but thats obviously where its trying to form based on convection and outflow) was in the carribean though??



Why is there a second red dot below the "L" on the map near the 85/20 that some talk about as the possible CoC?
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4343. Patrap
Quoting LADobeLady:


In Houma, LA


My fav spot in Se La..Cocodrie and Dulac.
by Far.

Heaven
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128651
4341. xcool
time RUN OUT .96L BETTER HURRY
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we could see 96L take off fast in the gulf
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4339. Patrap
5 years ago tonight

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128651
Quoting KingofNewOrleans:


Maybe 96L will twitter and tell us.


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96L COC 17.7N/83W as far I can tell
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Quoting midgulfmom:
Hi where are you?


In Houma, LA
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4335. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128651
at last the net it working the way it sould be it been slow all AM
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Quoting midgulfmom:
Interested to see the models once a coc is fixed.

That is 96L's problem. It still is an open wave, no closed center of circulation is apparent!

The lower pressures in that area, are due to high SST & high TCHP keeps the system popping off large masses of heavy convection, that waxes & wanes. Similar to the monsoon pattern that spawns typhoons in the W PAC. Conditions are favorable for slow development, of course, we all have to wait.
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Quoting FLdewey:


I make it out there at least once a year on business... it's always interesting to see the progress each year. I, for no scientific reason, think Miami will see the big nasty before nola again. Who knows - it's all part of what makes living in the South, well living in the south.


Agree good place to live only get storms every now and then no doupt Fl. gets a ton more hopefully we all come out on top this year.
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Quoting KingofNewOrleans:
I doubt 95L is a TD, but at least it's got spin, something that's hard to demonstrate with 96L
The only reason that rotation is more evident with 95L is because that invest is much smaller than 96L. In reality 96L's spin is stronger as viewed through MIMIC-TPW.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting winter123:

NVM got it. I thought the COC (weak now but thats obviously where its trying to form based on convection and outflow) was in the carribean though??




hmmmmm, still showing this I see...
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Yes Houston dodged two gigantic bullets in Rita and Ike. Living to the east I can say they both sucked! And I was on the "wesk" side of Rita. I never want to see a major take Houston head on. Especially since they say they won't evac anymore. It would be bad.


Totally agree. I too was on the "weak" side of Rita and on the eastern eyewall for Ike. Neither were pleasant.
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4328. hydrus
Quoting tropicfreak:


Well looks like the teens are starting to take over. (I'm 14) Baltimore birds is 13.
You youngins are computer wizards. I can remember when computers were few, and mostly belonged to the government or the banks. On board the ship I worked on, in the early 1980,s they had a huge clunky thing called a Satellite Navigator, Now it is called a GPS.
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4327. xcool
given the now limited time 96L
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Quoting TankHead93:
Good thing my family and I are located in a place in Pinellas County that doesn't flood and isn't in a surge zone.


Just don't bet on those Maps being 100% accurate in a Cat 4 or 5. I would error on caution. In 2004 i remember areas that flooded that was not expected and it was nothing.
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Quoting whs2012:
When should he have a COC?


Maybe 96L will twitter and tell us.
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pouring out here in lehigh acres fla, just east of ft myers. we have a areal flood warning and theres already flooding all over here. mostly just streets but the rain doesnt look like its going to stop soon and the flooding will get worse
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I doubt 95L is a TD, but at least it's got spin, something that's hard to demonstrate with 96L
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Quoting LADobeLady:
The first rains of 95L are here, no grass cutting again today.
Hi where are you?
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4321. Patrap
Quoting USSINS:



I'm not certain "Katrina" and "weakening" belong in the same sentence together. Hardly anything about it was weak except those that underestimated its fury. The SSS landfalling scale of a Cat 3 was hardly descriptive of its massive catastrophic power. I was inland, about 150 miles away and had sustained CAT 3 winds. It exited the nEast portion of the state still a Cat 1.

Whatever describes the "top" of or the "worst" of the scale - that's what Katrina was, a 5 or whatever one wants to call it, but it simply was not just a Cat 3 - that's for certain.


I always find that amusing,..if one can ..in a fractured way.

Shakes head..sips slowly.

30 ft Storm Surge..

Some Cat 3.

Like P surge,17ft

Yup.

ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.........

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128651
Quoting KoritheMan:


?
He edited it already to 96L.
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4318. aquak9
best line from the video, SSI:

"it's enough to make ya wanna chew your own foot off"

yep, that's quotable
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Quoting angiest:


If Ike had followed the forecast track a 20-30 foot surge would have gone up the Houston Ship Channel instead of just off to the north and east as happened. Not to mention putting the core of Houston in the eastern eyewall. And yet much of Houston was a tremendous mess for some weeks after getting hit by the "weak" side of the storm.


Yes Houston dodged two gigantic bullets in Rita and Ike. Living to the east I can say they both sucked! And I was on the "wesk" side of Rita. I never want to see a major take Houston head on. Especially since they say they won't evac anymore. It would be bad.
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Quoting winter123:
Model spread for 96L?

NVM got it. I thought the COC (weak now but thats obviously where its trying to form based on convection and outflow) was in the carribean though??

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Quoting rareaire:
TampaSpin, thats it no soup for you!


LOL.....i wonder if my mommy would still fix me some......YEP i know she would!
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Quoting TampaSpin:


If Tampa was to ever get hit with a Major Cane......i don't really think most that live i Tampa would know WATER wise what hit them.......the entire City of Tampa would be nearly destroyed!
Good thing my family and I are located in a place in Pinellas County that doesn't flood and isn't in a surge zone.
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Quoting Bordonaro:
4240. OK it's a warm core Low attached to a stationary front. Hopefully this moves inland quick, before it sheds the stationary front & creates major problems.


You can't have a low attached to a stationary front. Air circulates around lows therefore an attached front moves...i.e. is not stationary.

95L hasn't been on a front for a few days. There isnt a feature anywhere near it that matches the description of a real front.

Mets use the term "front" very loosely. In this case NWS mets have been using the term to describe a boundary between higher dewpoints and lower one, - mainly aloft, actually - and perhaps some elongated troughing along the NE GOMEX that has since diappeared.
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Model spread for 96L?
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yes my good Friend MH09 but that is the old one 96L has multiple COC like Alex had when it was in the beginning stages but if you look closely on the sat the convection is moving south with convection expanding to the north it makes it look like it is moving north to the old COC near the yucatan channel and yes it could be one of the two that you listed as well but I am more falling on the side of a fairly new COC being there weak but that that weak and slowly growing
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Interested to see the models once a coc is fixed.
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4306. xcool
TAMPSPIN
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Quoting txwxnut2:
That is where i said the CoC was most likely at...until a 13yo...thought he knew better.....LOL....JUST SAYIN!

13yo? LMAO!!!! (if you are talking about me...I'm 38!!!

Irregardless - I was looking there after you pointed it out, and can somewhat see something trying to form there, but it is not a coc...yet, but with the burst of convection, it may materialize. I can't see jack in the channel where the models are initializing. There was (past tense) an eddy around 17, but it got shread pretty good the last couple of hours.


Well looks like the teens are starting to take over. (I'm 14) Baltimore birds is 13.
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Quoting Patrap:



I think Tampa and Miami go furst.

But thats just me.



If Tampa was to ever get hit with a Major Cane......i don't really think most that live i Tampa would know WATER wise what hit them.......the entire City of Tampa would be nearly destroyed!
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4302. aquak9
Whew (wipes brow) at least I know I'm safe here in Jacksonville
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TampaSpin, thats it no soup for you!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.