A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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4451. Patrap
I sure hope its all we see anywhere this crazy season skyepony
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
00
ABNT20 KNHC 052109
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
510 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA IS MOVING ONSHORE
TERREBONNE PARISH NEAR CAILLOU BAY. DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE
DATA INDICATE THAT SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE COULD
OCCUR ACROSS TERREBONNE PARISH...ESPECIALLY IN TERREBONNE
BAY...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
ONSHORE. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES ONSHORE. THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AFTER LANDFALL AND PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA. INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND ANY
WATCHES OR WARNINGS.
Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
96L is elongated NNE to SSW, will shoot the channel, skirt the Yucatan and enter the GOM.
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I need a tropical tidbit from Levi pronto. LOL.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting TampaSpin:


ROFLMAO........which is it.....?

I believe it was accurate....seems very easily plausiable that the Low went directly over the bouy!


Yes. Exactly- that would be the most sensible conclusion
to me as well.

EXCELLENT OBSERVATION TAMPA SPIN!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting STORMTOPII:


It was Tim. A Carnival Cruise ship passed near the buoy and reported a pressure of 1006mb.


Have seen bouy misreads before but, they usually failed working.....this one did not fail or go offline.
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Quoting Chicklit:
Yes, it's safe to assume SE Texas. Kinda reminds me of the doctor who amputated the wrong leg.


OUCH! or OOPS! Lol.
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Quoting txsweetpea:



I had a stream of ants in my guest bathroom this am (1st time)-the killing was on. It happened in my old house before Rita.


Maybe I need to go out to my yard and find an ant pile and ask them...... :)
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
4443. Hhunter
27knots sustained for one minute registered in the last hour near the 96L blob center of blob..pretty strong wind.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Hey, it works. I had ants move into my car before Gustav...
But I really think it was just the saturated soil that made them do that.
Or it could've been the cookie crumbs..LOL.. yes I think that's right. My kids left the hose on, flooded parts of the yard and under the house and the ants moved inside!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It was an actual pressure reading. Last night 96L decoupled, the mid level circulation was what we were watching while the low level circulation wondered off. Consequently, the low level circulation went over the buoy causing the dramatic pressure drop.




Thanks for explaining what I believed was real. The wind was what confirmed something real, to me.


Quoting Levi32:
96L's center was never under 1004mb. That reading was clearly a fluke.

It was spinning quite vigorously. I don't think our eyes were lying. The faster air moves, the less pressure it exerts on its surroundings. How else would men fly?
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96 PSU Vis floater. Stare at this for a while. I think, as usual, the NHC has the coordinates right on the money...
Link
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Yes, it's safe to assume SE Texas. Kinda reminds me of the doctor who amputated the wrong leg.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Yep. I'm assuming this means SE TX

MZ089-060330-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 29N91W IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND
THE SW LOUISIANA COAST EARLY THIS EVENING AS IT BECOMES DIFFUSE.
LOW PRES...POSSIBLY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY TUE. THE LOW WILL BE
NEAR 24N89W TUE...NEAR 27N92W WED...THEN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INLAND NE TEXAS THU.



hmmm....
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
Quoting atmoaggie:
Hey, it works. I had ants move into my car before Gustav...
But I really think it was just the saturated soil that made them do that.



I had a stream of ants in my guest bathroom this am (1st time)-the killing was on. It happened in my old house before Rita.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Samantha550:


Everything that I am seeing online, points to a landfall somewhere in our area, but not sure on the strength or even definite development. I am wondering what the local Mets will say tonight. I agree that whoever gets a hit most likely will have to ride it out, too late to call evacuations if needed.


Yep. I'm assuming this means SE TX

MZ089-060330-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 29N91W IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND
THE SW LOUISIANA COAST EARLY THIS EVENING AS IT BECOMES DIFFUSE.
LOW PRES...POSSIBLY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY TUE. THE LOW WILL BE
NEAR 24N89W TUE...NEAR 27N92W WED...THEN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INLAND NE TEXAS THU.

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4430. RitaEvac 2:04 PM PDT on July 05, 2010 Hide this comment.
Sorry but 96L doesn't have anything going on. Look at it, nuttin


poof
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
Chicklit.. I had a gut feeling you would say that! LOL just kiddin' ;)
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Sorry but 96L doesn't have anything going on. Look at it, nuttin
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Quoting midgulfmom:
Some of us still use ants and omens for forecasting.. LOL!
Hey, it works. I had ants move into my car before Gustav...
But I really think it was just the saturated soil that made them do that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 92Andrew:
Hey Wunderblog-

Question here...

I live in the Miami area and a stalled front has been producing consistent rain for the last week.

When will the rain end for south florida? Tomorrow? The day after?

Thanks in advance : D


NWS Miami/Dade

EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CWA ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE
PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTH FLORIDA TO DRY OUT SOME ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. SO WILL LOWER THE POPS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
TO SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CAT...BEFORE GOING BACK TO A HIGH IN
CHANCE CAT ON FRIDAY.

THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DISSIPATE FRIDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING FOR RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES TO BUILD BACK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA NEXT WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO SET UP...AND ALLOW FOR
THE TYPICAL DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Samantha550:


Everything that I am seeing online, points to a landfall somewhere in our area, but not sure on the strength or even definite development. I am wondering what the local Mets will say tonight. I agree that whoever gets a hit most likely will have to ride it out, too late to call evacuations if needed.


Where are you located?
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
Quoting atmoaggie:

A more populated version, in time, with more frequent measurement:


Not sold that this really supports pressures that low, though.
That's what I was thinking.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
4424. Levi32
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I would say that the pressure readings in 42056 were in error except that I don't understand how an instrument error would behave as a sharp pressure fall, a couple hours near the lowest reading, and then a strong pressure rise back to where pressure 'should' be. It really looks like a small deep low passed over the buoy with a calming of the winds.

But whatever it was, I don't see any evidence of a low like that now.


That's the problem....a low causing a pressure change that rapid would be very very tight, and a major eye-sore on satellite imagery. It also would be very likely to be a well-defined closed low. No such evidence of one existed, and every other weather station or buoy that this low has passed near before or since hasn't recorded anything under 1009mb. It's rather odd....but I don't believe the 1004mb reading. It would have been absolutely in our face on satellite imagery if it really existed.
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Hey look! Buoy 42056 has a twitter account:

http://twitter.com/buoy42056
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It was an actual pressure reading. Last night 96L decoupled, the mid level circulation was what we were watching while the low level circulation wondered off. Consequently, the low level circulation went over the buoy causing the dramatic pressure drop.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Probably did.


ROFLMAO........which is it.....?

I believe it was accurate....seems very easily plausiable that the Low went directly over the bouy!
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Hi Topo,
As long as it stays west, shear does not appear to be an issue.
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4420. Ossqss
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting guygee:
Pressure drop was coincident with a windshift from E/ESE to S.

A more populated version, in time, with more frequent measurement:


Not sold that this really supports pressures that low, though.
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


yeah, this is about the time you would start preparing but we still don't know what it is going to do and go for sure yet.....ughhhh


Everything that I am seeing online, points to a landfall somewhere in our area, but not sure on the strength or even definite development. I am wondering what the local Mets will say tonight. I agree that whoever gets a hit most likely will have to ride it out, too late to call evacuations if needed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Forgetting technicalities, 95L is a tropical depression. It is having the same effects on South Louisiana, South Mississippi, L.A., and the Florida Panhandle that a real tropical depression would have. Who cares if it's classified or not? We are getting DRENCHED here in Hattiesburg from its rains.

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Quoting atmoaggie:
I am fairly sure those buoys have 2 barometers. Now if one failed a year ago, I cannot say...
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting midgulfmom:
Some of us still use ants and omens for forecasting.. LOL!

Just please no "gut feelings..."
I'd trust an ant over that model.
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4413. Skyepony (Mod)
Watching 95L come in to LA on Wundermap. Watching the weather stations..25mph winds. Not in far enough to tell conclusively that it's not closed, looking at the one to the SE of center..probably not.

Kinda odd~ hurricane hunters fly out right off LA most days & chuck a sonde in the ocean. None has flown since Alex (June 29th), not even the every 7 day flight Kermit does over Deepwater.

Here's hoping that's the worst ya'll see this year.
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Some of us still use ants and omens for forecasting.. LOL!
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Quoting Levi32:


The low-level circulation went near the buoy but never had a pressure of 1004mb. The instrument failed in some way during that particular pressure drop.
I am fairly sure those buoys have 2 barometers. Now if one failed a year ago, I cannot say...
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Given the shear set up and SSTs, I wouldn't be surprised to see that WCarib invest make something of itself.
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Quoting angiest:


But which part? Brownsville to Sabine Pass doesn't make preparing easy.


Maddening isn't it?
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Hey Wunderblog-

Question here...

I live in the Miami area and a stalled front has been producing consistent rain for the last week.

When will the rain end for south florida? Tomorrow? The day after?

Thanks in advance : D
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PtownBryan:


Believe it or not Houston was in a drought...Was. lol. Pray yall get some rain soon!


The front lawn here looks almost like a desert.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Yep just love it. It was bad when we knew what was coming. This year Mother Nature throwing n a new twist to make us crazy.


Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
Quoting PtownBryan:


Believe it or not Houston was in a drought...Was. lol. Pray yall get some rain soon!

You will probably get what you pray for; just remember to be grateful.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.