A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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4501. Ossqss
Any links to any Anemometers South of Houma, La ? I bet there are some pretty good sustained winds in that neck of the woods.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4500. Levi32
I dunno I mean....no deep convection and no reports of winds over 15 knots around the system. It's well-defined but I'm not sure if it qualifies as a TD yet.

So the NHC suddenly doesn't want 12+ hours of deep convection before designation? Honestly...

Regardless, one can see what home-grown mischief can do on frontal boundaries in the Gulf of Mexico. Always gotta be on your toes.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26695
4499. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129334
Since tropical storm force winds have been reported, if designated, 95L will likely go straight to tropical storm status.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
4497. xcool
AL, 95, 2010070518, , BEST, 0, 287N, 909W, 30, 1008, LO

Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
c*** 95L surpised us shoot
Member Since: July 13, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
Quoting MississippiWx:
Forgetting technicalities, 95L is a tropical depression. It is having the same effects on South Louisiana, South Mississippi, L.A., and the Florida Panhandle that a real tropical depression would have. Who cares if it's classified or not? We are getting DRENCHED here in Hattiesburg from its rains.



LOL...I just posted this and look what the NHC did. I guess they finally woke up...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is the current WV Image of 95L

RainbowLoop

Not seeing it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
if 95L be comes the B storm then 96L will be come the C storm
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115432
Quoting JLPR2:


yep, 95L might become TD2 before moving inland, its certainly looking healthy on visible


winds are TS force with it, could be Bonnie actually
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4491. xcool
95L TD WT--
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
I have to say that giving the Louisiana low a "near 0% chance" of developing when the 2:00 Outlook was posted this afternoon was reckless. The forecasters on duty this afternoon were out to lunch. That's the problem with a government holiday. The veterans take the day off and leave the B team in charge!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
95L this may pull it off
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115432
Quoting TampaSpin:


Shoooo....no confrontation.....that would be very immature of me.....LOL
LOL, na. Props out to you on that one.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
It is a small but strong puff ball. Lil Bonnie may come forth tonight!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Samantha550:


SE TX Lumberton


ok, mauriceville here...
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4485. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Vertically Integrated Liquid Range 124 NMI



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129334
Quoting TexasHurricane:


Maybe I need to go out to my yard and find an ant pile and ask them...... :)


Go back to 2005 and read Dr Masters blog days before Katrina hit. Long before we had satellites, radar, models, and computers we had mother nature and her signs.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TexasHurricane:


Maybe I need to go out to my yard and find an ant pile and ask them...... :)



Maybe so......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pcbsmokey:
Looks like Tim was on it ;)
Quoting STORMTOPII:
Hey Tampa, looks like the always right 13 year old was wrong.


Shoooo....no confrontation.....that would be very immature of me.....LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4481. xcool
THAT SO SAD 95L BLOW OUT 96L
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting TexasHurricane:


yeah, but I think we got the next one that came right?...


Yeah 10 days later. Lol. Early warning?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4479. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129334
Quoting STORMTOPII:
Hey Tampa, looks like the always right 13 year old was wrong.
I wasn't the only one that was wrong. The NHC also said it was attached to a frontal boundary in the 18z surface analysis.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
LOL @ teeheehee'ing, Pat. Once again, right up to the last minute, then...HELLLLLLLL-OOOOOOOOO. Guess those hour+ old METARs need to catch up :))
Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 38
4475. Patrap
Quoting Patrap:


Teee,hee...hee,hee



U betcha..

Lotas energy stored in the marsh tonight too.



I was up at 4 am here yakking about ol' Chug a Lug 95L.


Itza Trooper..


..Hooper Drives the Boat!!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129334
4474. JLPR2
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Well that certainly changes things, it did appear it was detaching from the front, but will it really have the time to develop now?


yep, 95L might become TD2 before moving inland, its certainly looking healthy on visible
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
now i have gut
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115432
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Well that certainly changes things, it did appear it was detaching from the front, but will it really have the time to develop now?
It is 50 miles off the shore apparently.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting homelesswanderer:


I dunno. I had an ant invasion in my kitchen. Had to kill em off as we were leaving from Gustav. He missed. Lol.


yeah, but I think we got the next one that came right?...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TexasHurricane:


Where are you located?


SE TX Lumberton
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pcbsmokey:
A SMALL WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA IS MOVING ONSHORE
TERREBONNE PARISH NEAR CAILLOU BAY. DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE
DATA INDICATE THAT SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE COULD
OCCUR ACROSS TERREBONNE PARISH...ESPECIALLY IN TERREBONNE
BAY...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
ONSHORE. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES ONSHORE. THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AFTER LANDFALL AND PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA. INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND ANY
WATCHES OR WARNINGS.


Yep and nothing about Sub-Tropical....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Lol. I'm afraid you will probably have to wait until tomorrow for one. Got too much school and work to handle today.
Don't worry about it.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
4466. Levi32
.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26695
4465. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129334
LOL, I will eat the biggest crow of life if 95L becomes Bonnie.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
00
ABNT20 KNHC 052109
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
510 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA IS MOVING ONSHORE
TERREBONNE PARISH NEAR CAILLOU BAY. DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE
DATA INDICATE THAT SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE COULD
OCCUR ACROSS TERREBONNE PARISH...ESPECIALLY IN TERREBONNE
BAY...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
ONSHORE. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES ONSHORE. THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AFTER LANDFALL AND PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA. INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND ANY
WATCHES OR WARNINGS.



OMG
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115432
Quoting JLPR2:
A SMALL WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA IS MOVING ONSHORE
TERREBONNE PARISH NEAR CAILLOU BAY. DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE
DATA INDICATE THAT SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE COULD
OCCUR ACROSS TERREBONNE PARISH...ESPECIALLY IN TERREBONNE
BAY...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
ONSHORE. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES ONSHORE. THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AFTER LANDFALL AND PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA. INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND ANY
WATCHES OR WARNINGS.


Did everyone see this?


Well that certainly changes things, it did appear it was detaching from the front, but will it really have the time to develop now?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4461. Ossqss
Quoting atmoaggie:
Hey, it works. I had ants move into my car before Gustav...
But I really think it was just the saturated soil that made them do that.



Oh my, I hope it was not Them darn fire ants! Had a bout with them last night :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4460. Levi32
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I need a tropical tidbit from Levi pronto. LOL.


Lol. I'm afraid you will probably have to wait until tomorrow for one. Got too much school and work to handle today.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26695
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Yep. I'm assuming this means SE TX

MZ089-060330-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 29N91W IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND
THE SW LOUISIANA COAST EARLY THIS EVENING AS IT BECOMES DIFFUSE.
LOW PRES...POSSIBLY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY TUE. THE LOW WILL BE
NEAR 24N89W TUE...NEAR 27N92W WED...THEN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INLAND NE TEXAS THU.


actually it isnt they sometimes it is called ne tx too but yea most of the time its se tx
Member Since: July 13, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
4458. leo305
new low forming under the convection east of the Yucatan based on VIS sat
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like Tim was on it ;)
Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 38
4456. Patrap
Quoting pcbsmokey:
A SMALL WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA IS MOVING ONSHORE
TERREBONNE PARISH NEAR CAILLOU BAY. DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE
DATA INDICATE THAT SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE COULD
OCCUR ACROSS TERREBONNE PARISH...ESPECIALLY IN TERREBONNE
BAY...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
ONSHORE. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES ONSHORE. THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AFTER LANDFALL AND PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA. INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND ANY
WATCHES OR WARNINGS.


Teee,hee...hee,hee



U betcha..

Lotas energy stored in the marsh tonight too.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129334
Oh Damn!!

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting TexasHurricane:


Maybe I need to go out to my yard and find an ant pile and ask them...... :)


I dunno. I had an ant invasion in my kitchen. Had to kill em off as we were leaving from Gustav. He missed. Lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4453. JLPR2
LOL
I was beaten to it XD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A SMALL WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA IS MOVING ONSHORE
TERREBONNE PARISH NEAR CAILLOU BAY. DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE
DATA INDICATE THAT SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE COULD
OCCUR ACROSS TERREBONNE PARISH...ESPECIALLY IN TERREBONNE
BAY...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
ONSHORE. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES ONSHORE. THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AFTER LANDFALL AND PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA. INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND ANY
WATCHES OR WARNINGS.
Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 38
4451. Patrap
I sure hope its all we see anywhere this crazy season skyepony
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129334

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.