A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Where is the new blog?

"My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening."
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5400. xcool
FLdewey lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting mobilebayal:

We had one quick shower around 5pm. Did you go to any of the beaches today?

No I'm still on call and had to work all day
:o(

I will be going this weekend to take some pictures though....
I need to know how the clean-up is going...
No rain at my house at 5pm but could hear thunder...
How was your day?

Taco :o)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5398. aquak9
calder- thank you!!!

grother- yes a compliment.

ike- pass the bottle
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5396. Patrap
my eyes are lost ..forever.
it burns,,,it burns I tell yas


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5395. xcool
KEEPEROFTHEGATE so .i'm not jfv jr here
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Quoting FLdewey:



you been re ported
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Hey wgy did you say my name was a disquise?
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5389. Patrap


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Why are we posting pictures of Ferris Bueller?
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Quoting aquak9:
oh who can leave with this sort of excitement?
It's like a drug isn't it Aqua
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5385. IKE
Quoting xcool:
all drama & jfv get old .


So does vulgarity.


Quoting aquak9:
oh who can leave with this sort of excitement?


LOL....nothing on TV this entertaining.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Patrap:
Snorrrrrrrrrrrrrrre...

...Klunk!


Passing you a glass of something strong on the way to dinner....
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5382. bappit
Quoting Patrap:


I tried Logic here once..

And well..that didnt pan out too well.

Practice makes perfect. :)
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5381. Patrap
Snorrrrrrrrrrrrrrre...

...Klunk!
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Off for dinner here....enjoy all! Quite the season to watch...calm is needed by all to keep this a useable space for all...
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5378. Grothar
Quoting aquak9:
grothar- SANITY!!!

robertm- one poof and one flag is no big deal. You're fine.

But when you start saying "poof" to your coworkers....


Hey, aqua, Hope that was a compliment. I very rarely get accused of sanity. Strange mood tonight on the blog.
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5377. calder
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
Since there are no actual coord, then you can throw ALL the models out. No correct location to initialize.


exactly
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5376. aquak9
oh who can leave with this sort of excitement?
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Quoting taco2me61:


You are so welcome sweetie. I also think we will
be getting more rain from 95L as it pushes moisture
from our East toward the west arcross Alabama.

Taco :o)
We have finally gotten a lil break in Semmes right now.I know more is on the way.LOL!!!!!!!
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5374. JLPR2
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Lol. Ok, although this blog is giving me a good laugh, it's time to head out.


Yeah, its entertaining. XD
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


NHC says it made landfall


Yes... and they are..well not always that exact...as it can touch the shore will the COC and then turn West ..as it did and lose contact with the coast..in any case it did not continue inland as you can see on any radar loop...as far as threat..it is minimal but it will continue to moisten the atmosphere towards TX in advance of any other storm that comes into the gulf this week.
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5371. calder
Quoting aquak9:
whoa...angry zombie.


ignored. byebye
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Quoting Topography:


who the HELL are you calling, JFV???? I am not that individual, ok, taz? clearly, you must be him, since you are always mentioning him on here. Continue to accsue me of being him, and I will report you to teh admin. I am not that infamous fellow. You've got some nerve.


???
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5369. xcool
all drama & jfv get old .
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Quoting taco2me61:

Hey There Mobilebay... You staying dry today???
Although it has been very "Hot & Sticky" this aternoon....

Taco :o)

We had one quick shower around 5pm. Did you go to any of the beaches today?
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5367. JLPR2
Quoting IKE:



Hmmm.


yeah, it couldn't be more obvious LOL!

I recommend a grammar check plug-in for firefox XD
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Quoting FLdewey:


Take it easy... Taz calls everyone JFV at least once... it's like an initiation.
It gets old!
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Lol. Ok, although this blog is giving me a good laugh, it's time to head out.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
5363. aquak9
whoa...angry zombie.
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Back to zero again. They just can't make up their minds.
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5361. aquak9
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
Anyone have legitimate coordinates on 96L ?


that's like asking for legitimate answers from BP.
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5360. xcool
guess time go back new website here go drama .
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Quoting mobilebayal:


Hey Taco!

Hey There Mobilebay... You staying dry today???
Although it has been very "Hot & Sticky" this aternoon....

Taco :o)
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Quoting leo305:
on radar 95L looks like its moving WNW over water, but the NHC said its inland?

I'm with you on this. I'm not ready to write off 95L. As long as the COC is over water, it has a risk of developing. It seems to be hugging the coastline and further closing its circulation.
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5356. calder
Quoting F4PHANTOM:
Anyone have legitimate coordinates on 96L ?


no real legitimate coords as multiple vortices still trying to consolidate. There are plenty of guesses though
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Here's Joey B's take on 95 this afternoon.

There is no change to my idea on the system in the northern gulf, it is doing what it was supposed to do, but if anything, we are getting a prime example of what is wrong with TPC and why my two suggested ideas.. 1 on how to classify ( closed rotary circulation, gales in on quad and 2) how to judge the intensity of the storm, incorporating pressure and pressure tendency on a 1-10 scale would be better. In any case a forecaster came in and saw what all saw, that this had a vigorous low to mid level circulation that could cause strong winds in a small area, so he upgraded. What should have been done before could have been handled with special tropical disturbance statements, rather than just blowing it off as a 10% chance. That is not to say it should be named, it is to say that the perception is that there is a sudden jump in intensity, when that is plainly not the case! What happened was a change of the shift and someone looking hard at the data and making a judgement call. Of course you and I have to react, to I have to let all my clients know that its the same as has been described, the weather has not changed, just the forecaster for TPC did and decided to handle it differently

You get what I am talking about. And this person has had several "experiences" where he walked into a hornets nest... a storm that was developing without the previous shift even saying anything. For you Texans.. remember the morning of Allison, the 5 am bulletin, or Humberto?

But like I said, if Alex is any indication, we are in for a long season, and I am talking not only about the actual weather, but the explanations I will have to give. It would be funny if it werent so serious, but it has spread to other matters, non weather related ( I dont know how much more economic recovery I can take over here... I feel guilty the way things have been going so good there too)

I am developing a dark side

Now the most obvious problem in the northwest gulf is still forecasted to not line up the low and mid level centers enough so that it wont be a big storm. But here is the problem and why the area from Corpus Christi to the Louisiana coast should be concerned. These large scale pattern development systems need time to develop. One can plainly see a mid level rotation center east of the northern coast of the Yucatan. Gales are being reported from ships south of the west tip of Cuba where the low and mid level flows are lined up. But the system leans southeast from the low level center near the northeast coast of the Yucatan to the mid level center. If such a system were to line up, look out, another case of rapid feedback development. I dont think this will have the time. However I do think and area of tropical storm conditions, with gales and heavy rains, will pinwheel on the right side of the system, and that means the threat of 6-12 hours of heavy rain... and no matter how its classified ( after what we have been seeing, who knows, right) tropical storm like conditions on the upper Texas or Louisiana coast later Wednesday or Thursday


Now, here is why New England has to sleep with one eye open ( Canadian maritimes too) The upper low that is well east of the coast will back southwest the next several days and entrain the energy from the tropical wave near Puerto Rico. There is plenty of heat around, no doubt about that, the ocean is boiling off the east coast relative to the time of the year. With a major ridge building over the central Atlantic and a trough in the middle of the nation, the area southeast of Hatteras would be a nice place for this wave to get entrained into a falling pressure field caused by the upper low backing, and feedback and develop. A TPC nightmare of course since they tend to ignore things like that, and then its a 50-50 chance if it ever gets classified ( Jersey Devil) anyway. But there is some African influence here and the MJO is locked in octant 2, so one never can be sure if the whack a mole pattern doesnt deliver in cases like this.

Notes and asides: I see the polar temp has been below normal much of the summer
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5354. docrod
Quoting IKE:
Correct call by the NHC holding 96L at 30%....



Hope my Texas coast friends are watching. BTW - who roused the rabble around here. Just check back in after a 3 hour time out and whoa. Time to pop more corn and put on another movie. - take care - outta here.
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5353. IKE
Quoting Topography:


who the HELL are you calling, JFV???? I am not that individual, ok, taz? clearly, you must be him, since you are always mentioning him on here. Continue to accsue me of being him, and I will report you to teh admin. I am not that infamous fellow. You've got some nerve.



Hmmm.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting aquak9:
Zombie alert- code red


Am I considered a zombie because I only post once in a while?
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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