A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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ASCAT from earlier showed a closed surface circulation with 2 40mph wind barbs.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21159
AL, 96, 2010070518, , BEST, 0, 190N, 856W, 30, 1007, DB,
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114965
Quoting Levi32:
If the NHC classifies this it will be yet another example of their inconsistency.


absolutely agree
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Kinda like Humberto II... Louisiana style.
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4545. JavPR
PR have started to receive the firsts showers from the tropical wave near us. During the last minutes wind have picked up in my area.
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4544. calder
Quoting TampaSpin:


Bro the windchart you posted earlier confirmed in my mind that this was at least a TD if not Bonnie as i said....it was easy to see.


was it ever even a closed low? just because it has TS gusts doesn't mean it was tropical
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4543. xcool
NOLAWino YOU BETTER CALL DirecTV.LOL
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4542. calder
Quoting RecordSeason:
So what?

Let the record heat come! Woot! Global Warming it is!

Once it warms up a few more degrees and ice melts everywhere, the world will be FORCED to develop real energy technology and space colonization, instead of the status quo crap we have now for technology and economics.

Unfortunately, the effects of GW aren't likely to be substantial enough to put real environmental or economic pressure on anyone for at least a few more decades.


...
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95L squall just knocked out my DirecTV.
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not good for the oil!
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Quoting Patrap:
Gotz sum vid too...



Pat didn't you say that you were going to stream live from Grand Isle and act like OZ and get stuck in the sand ?
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Statement as of 4:56 PM EDT on July 05, 2010

... A Flash Flood Warning remains in effect until 730 PM EDT for
extreme northeastern Miami-Dade and southeastern Broward counties...

At 443 PM EDT... the Hollywood Police Department reported water
entering houses east of federal Highway.

Also... the National Weather Service Doppler radar is estimating that
1.5 to 5.5 inches has fallen from Miramar eastward to Hollywood and
northward to Fort Lauderdale this afternoon. A report has also
been received of 5.2 inches of rain in Miramar.

Rainfall intensity is decreasing across the area, however an
additional half an inch may still be possible in this area over the
next hour or two.

Locations in the warning include but are not limited to Hallandale...
Port Everglades... Wilton Manors... Pembroke Pines... Hollywood and
aventura

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of urban
areas... highways... streets and underpasses as well as other drainage
areas and low lying spots.


Lat... Lon 2594 8011 2595 8043 2603 8043 2605 8016
2617 8016 2617 8010


Tingler


... Flood Watch remains in effect until 10 PM EDT this evening...

The Flood Watch continues for

* a portion of South Florida... including the following areas...
coastal Broward... Metro Broward... northeast coastal Miami Dade
and northeastern Metro Miami Dade.

* Until 10 PM EDT this evening

* at 5 PM EDT... flash flooding has already been reported in Hollywood
with flood waters entering multiple homes east of federal Highway.
A Flash Flood Warning is in effect for southeastern Broward County
and extreme northeastern Miami-Dade County until 730 PM this evening...
where 2 to over 5 inches of rain has fallen. Rain continues to fall
over the area... though intensity is gradually weakening.

* Street flooding will continue over parts of the area. There continues
to be the potential for additional more serious flooding with
the possibility of roads becoming impassable and flood waters
entering more structures.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
additional flash flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding
should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.




345 PM EDT Mon Jul 5 2010

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued an

* Urban Flood Advisory for minor flooding of poor drainage areas
in...
southeastern Broward County in Southeast Florida...
this includes the cities of... Pembroke Pines... Miramar...
Hollywood... Hallandale... Davie...
northeastern Miami-Dade County in Southeast Florida...
this includes the cities of... Miami Gardens... Miami
Lakes... aventura...

* until 545 PM EDT

* at 342 PM EDT around 2 inches of rain has already fallen over this
area over the past hour on saturated soil and this area may receive
an addition couple of inches.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause elevated levels on
small creeks and streams... and ponding of water in urban areas...
highways... streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage
areas and low lying spots.

Lat... Lon 2592 8011 2591 8050 2609 8050 2612 8010
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95L looks to be bringing rough weather directly over
the Deep Water Horizon spill. OUCH!

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Quoting Patrap:
WOWSa..I just got that inbound cell with TS force Gust for sure.
Jeesum that was August Like..


Bro the windchart you posted earlier confirmed in my mind that this was at least a TD if not Bonnie as i said....it was easy to see.
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4535. xcool
if 95L GET NAME BAD NEWS FOR NOLA.& PAT KNOWS WHAT I TALK ABOUT.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Ah crap. Every time they get one we get the next one. Lol.


LOL... we just may....
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
This is one reason why you never turn your back on a system that is in your backyard and you will never hear me say a system is dead until the threat is 0 even if it's not upgraded the effects will still be the same.
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Quoting Chicklit:

Use whatever image you want.
Not seeing it.


Visible loops and radar are pretty good tools and they definitely give the hint that 95L is a TD.
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From Wikipedia


Tropical Storm Marco was the smallest known tropical cyclone on record. The 13th named storm of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season, Marco developed out of a broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean during late September 2008. Influenced by a tropical wave on October 4, a small low-level circulation center developed over Belize. After crossing the southern end of the Yucat√°n Peninsula, the low was declared Tropical Depression Thirteen early on October 6. The depression quickly intensified into a tropical storm and was given the name Marco later that day. Marco reached its peak intensity with winds of 65 miles per hour (100 km/h) early on October 7. Around this time, tropical storm force winds extended 11.5 miles (18.5 km) from the center of the storm, making Marco the smallest known tropical cyclone on record.[1][2] Around 1200 UTC, Marco made landfall near Misantla, Veracruz. The storm rapidly weakened after landfall, dissipating later that day. Because of its small size, Marco caused minimal damage. However, the storm's heavy rains led to floods up to 10 feet (3.0 m) deep that covered highways and damaged homes.
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Swish

Swish does not a tropical depression make.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


I was thinking that band of thunderstorms moving onshore was probably where TD/TS force winds were occurring. I'm thinking they will never designate this a TD or TS since it's already moving ashore. They might classify it after the season.
The 5:10 PM TWO stated it was 50 miles off the coast, although I agree with you that it is unlikely that it will get classified, you never know.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21159
4527. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127874
4526. Patrap
Gotz sum vid too...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127874
The NHC is all but admitting this storm now has tropical storm force winds. They just couldn't very well go straight from 0% chance to a TS and save face. They will probably not categorize it, then upgrade in "post-season analysis" like they've occasionally done before with near-shore storms.
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4524. hydrus
Quoting ElConando:


Beat out Marco maybe? LOL
AAAHHHHH! ya beat me Conando!!
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4523. Patrap
WOWSa..I just got that inbound cell with TS force Gust for sure.
Jeesum that was August Like..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127874
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Since tropical storm force winds have been reported, if designated, 95L will likely go straight to tropical storm status.


Ah crap. Every time they get one we get the next one. Lol.
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4521. Levi32
If the NHC classifies this it will be yet another example of their inconsistency.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26611
Quoting Levi32:
It does seem to be spinning pretty fast on visible satellite though, so higher winds could be occurring right near the center. It's a very small system.


I was thinking that band of thunderstorms moving onshore was probably where TD/TS force winds were occurring. I'm thinking they will never designate this a TD or TS since it's already moving ashore. They might classify it after the season.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Lol...water vapor is not something to use when trying to "see" a weak tropical cyclone.

Use whatever image you want.
Not seeing it.
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Here in central florida we are going to get more rain the norleans. we have a wave of moisture and thunderstorms heading our way!!
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1683
4517. hydrus
Link.... 95L has a chance to beat Marco in the micro-cyclone category..
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Quoting Levi32:
It does seem to be spinning pretty fast on visible satellite though, so higher winds could be occurring right near the center. It's a very small system.


Beat out Marco maybe? LOL
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4515. USSINS
Do they make models for folks signing up now for 95L?

ROTFL


I guess it's the new age, digital generation - all dependent on gadgets and the like. Honestly, I never look at a model, at all, just sat pics and surface obs. Granted, it's a useful tool, but there's way too much emphasis put on them, imo.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
that being said I look at the systems convection and I just don't buy it being named

Me either, but the NHC just might.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21159
If it got a circulation and it blows over 40 this close to the coast I guess they want to play it safe.
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Ladies and gentleman, a quick visual description of the mixed emotions on this blog as of right now concerning...

95L!!!!





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I guess this 95L just goes to show you never know what these storms are gonna do...
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
4508. Levi32
It does seem to be spinning pretty fast on visible satellite though, so higher winds could be occurring right near the center. It's a very small system.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26611
Quoting Patrap:


I was up at 4 am here yakking about ol' Chug a Lug 95L.


Itza Trooper..


..Hooper Drives the Boat!!


You betcha bottom he does! 4 am? You are dilligent, to be sure!
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2338
that being said I look at the systems convection and I just don't buy it being named

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A LOT of rain here in S Fla the past few days. The ground is totally saturated (meaning it cannot hold any more water.) Flooding is minor in my area though.
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Quoting Chicklit:
This is the current WV Image of 95L

RainbowLoop

Not seeing it.


Lol...water vapor is not something to use when trying to "see" a weak tropical cyclone.
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4503. xcool
GOOD JOB PAT ..
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4502. angiest
Quoting btwntx08:

actually it isnt they sometimes it is called ne tx too but yea most of the time its se tx


NE Gulf Coast or SE Texas...

Looks like HWS Houston/Galveston hasn't looked at the new models as they are talking about the far western Gulf:

The forecast was a bit tricky given the weak flow regime aloft and
that the models differed on how the pattern changes over the next
several days. In the short term...the NAM...GFS...and European model (ecmwf) bring
high moisture content into southeast Texas. The weak northern Gulf low is
expected to move into either southern la or far southeast Texas by Tuesday.
This system will probably bring likely probability of precipitation at least to the southeast
half of the forecast area on Wednesday. Per the latest NHC
tropical weather outlook...the Caribbean tropical wave does have a
chance to develop into a tropical depression as it moves westward.
The latest track models have the system moving into the far western
Gulf and inland sometime Thursday.
Although the eventual
development and track is unknown at this time...plenty of moisture
will bring likely probability of precipitation to southeast Texas on Thursday and maybe into early
Friday. Precipitable water/S were high enough to consider forecasting heavy
rainfall. For now will keep the mention in the hazardous weather
outlook. Lowered probability of precipitation on Friday as the models did agree on pushing
the moisture inland of the forecast area.

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4501. Ossqss
Any links to any Anemometers South of Houma, La ? I bet there are some pretty good sustained winds in that neck of the woods.....
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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