A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Quoting Tazmanian:



we seen it 20times now thank you


Hey its a shock to me Taz, I had to post it to make sense of it. 95L will likely be TS Bonnie before landfall judging from that ASCAT pass.
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Quoting StormW:
If they name 95L, then they'll have to go back and name the other two in post analysis...the NJ system, which was more tropical than this will ever be, and the system that developed an "eye" off the Carolina coast before landfall.


I agree with you
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Quoting RecordSeason:
4552:

"I see no evidence of a tropical cyclone. This damage was caused by an oil spill." - insurance adjuster, 2010.


Then- This damage was caused by tropical weather-BP claims
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4594. JavPR
Quoting JLPR2:


I got a heavy one a few hours ago XD

we haven't still seen big showers over here but the wind picked up nicely...it's getting cloudy now tough...
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
A SMALL WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA IS MOVING ONSHORE
TERREBONNE PARISH NEAR CAILLOU BAY. DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE
DATA INDICATE THAT SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE COULD
OCCUR ACROSS TERREBONNE PARISH...ESPECIALLY IN TERREBONNE
BAY...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
ONSHORE. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES ONSHORE. THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AFTER LANDFALL AND PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA. INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND ANY
WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

It FINALLY shed the frontal boundary!!!!!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Uh-oh. 96L organizing.

AL, 96, 2010070518, , BEST, 0, 190N, 856W, 30, 1007, DB,


Just where I thought. 95L kinda scares me reguarding 96. If it pops out in the GOM with a spin its got a good chance of developing.
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4591. aquak9
must be the holiday mets at the NHC this weekend. kudos pat.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
A SMALL WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA IS MOVING ONSHORE
TERREBONNE PARISH NEAR CAILLOU BAY. DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE
DATA INDICATE THAT SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE COULD
OCCUR ACROSS TERREBONNE PARISH...ESPECIALLY IN TERREBONNE
BAY...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
ONSHORE. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES ONSHORE. THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AFTER LANDFALL AND PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA. INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND ANY
WATCHES OR WARNINGS.



we seen it 20times now thank you
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114703
4588. IKE
18Z operational GFS @ 24 hours...

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4587. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
If they name it, they should name it Pat
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Quoting calder:


was it ever even a closed low? just because it has TS gusts doesn't mean it was tropical


atleast a Tropical Depression possibly more. I agree with Tampa though.
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Hello everyone. I am brand spanking new to this. I clicked on the Jeff Masters' blog by mistake, but boy am I glad I did. I intend to, what is it you call it? lurk? Until I know enough to open my mouth. Well, except for questions that is. Apologising in advance for anything stupid coming from me, but I feel you're never too old to learn, right? And I find this very interesting, as this affects almost everyone at sometime personally.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A SMALL WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA IS MOVING ONSHORE
TERREBONNE PARISH NEAR CAILLOU BAY. DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE
DATA INDICATE THAT SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE COULD
OCCUR ACROSS TERREBONNE PARISH...ESPECIALLY IN TERREBONNE
BAY...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
ONSHORE. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES ONSHORE. THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AFTER LANDFALL AND PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA. INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND ANY
WATCHES OR WARNINGS.
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Quoting xcool:
AlexEmmett LOL .HEY

for the sake of the blogs sanity
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Quoting MississippiWx:


I agree with that placement of the center. The one that spun off and raced into the Gulf had no chance and was the one I was referring to earlier today that had no convection. I didn't see how it could have become a tropical cyclone.
Yup. This one is nestled inside the convection. Plus, winds increased 5 knots and pressure decreased 1mb.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting NOLAWino:
95L squall just knocked out my DirecTV.


oh the humanity! :)
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4578. Patrap
Quoting TampaSpin:


Bro the windchart you posted earlier confirmed in my mind that this was at least a TD if not Bonnie as i said....it was easy to see.


The wind profile is the tell all,most the time,,but the Obvious was stated by the NHC.

They just stubborn sometimes, and those obs are always gonna be ahead of them with todays gadgets.

Especially dem human eyes.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
Quoting StormW:


No gasp here...if they classify it, then they will be going against the criteria that Beven made clear to me at the National Hurricane Conference.


What if it's not attached to a frontal boundary any longer? If their observations have proven that it has become its own entity, then I don't see how they are going against their own criteria.
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4576. USSINS
4548. Hey, Alex should have been called a TD long before it was finally classified, imo. The NHC of old would have declared it for sure.

But, hey, they too are not perfect and do make mistakes. Very, extremely reliable, but still human. And, these days with all the political correctness, heavy-weight insurance and now BP gusher, I think they're being quite particular with their considerations and statements.

We'll see yet. The season is just getting started.
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Last ASCAT pass

Link
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WHOA! 95L's almost a TD.
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Quoting StormW:


No gasp here...if they classify it, then they will be going against the criteria that Beven made clear to me at the National Hurricane Conference.


What criteria was it missing......are you saying it was still attached to a frontal boundary...
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4571. xcool
AlexEmmett LOL .HEY
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
4570. IKE
...60 PERCENT...

95L....
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Uh-oh. 96L organizing.

AL, 96, 2010070518, , BEST, 0, 190N, 856W, 30, 1007, DB,


I agree with that placement of the center. The one that spun off and raced into the Gulf had no chance and was the one I was referring to earlier today that had no convection. I didn't see how it could have become a tropical cyclone.
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Quoting hydrus:
Are you going to explain on the blog why it is bad news for NOLA?

IF it begins with a K forget it
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4566. hydrus
Quoting MississippiWx:


Visible loops show that there is easily a closed low, not to mention surface obs.
I agree. It is spinning up as we type...Link
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4565. Patrap
Quoting midgulfmom:
Especially if it's upgraded later...


I aint saying nuthin..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
4564. xcool
100% TD OR TS IMO .I DID F--- UP BIG TIME .
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
Quoting xcool:
if 95L GET NAME BAD NEWS FOR NOLA.& PAT KNOWS WHAT I TALK ABOUT.
Especially if it's upgraded later...
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Crow for many.

Never deal in absolutes.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Uh-oh. 96L organizing.

AL, 96, 2010070518, , BEST, 0, 190N, 856W, 30, 1007, DB,



yup
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114703
4558. hydrus
Quoting xcool:
if 95L GET NAME BAD NEWS FOR NOLA.& PAT KNOWS WHAT I TALK ABOUT.
Are you going to explain on the blog why it is bad news for NOLA?
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Quoting calder:


was it ever even a closed low? just because it has TS gusts doesn't mean it was tropical




WE may not ever know since we never had recon nor a good Scan ......
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Quoting Levi32:
If the NHC classifies this it will be yet another example of their inconsistency.
Agree.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Uh-oh. 96L organizing.

AL, 96, 2010070518, , BEST, 0, 190N, 856W, 30, 1007, DB,
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting calder:


was it ever even a closed low? just because it has TS gusts doesn't mean it was tropical


Visible loops show that there is easily a closed low, not to mention surface obs.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4553. JLPR2
Quoting JavPR:
PR have started to receive the firsts showers from the tropical wave near us. During the last minutes wind have picked up in my area.


I got a heavy one a few hours ago XD
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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
00
ABNT20 KNHC 052109
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
510 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA IS MOVING ONSHORE
TERREBONNE PARISH NEAR CAILLOU BAY. DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE
DATA INDICATE THAT SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE COULD
OCCUR ACROSS TERREBONNE PARISH...ESPECIALLY IN TERREBONNE
BAY...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
ONSHORE. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES ONSHORE. THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AFTER LANDFALL AND PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA. INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND ANY
WATCHES OR WARNINGS.


Sit back... close your eyes... you can almost hear the collective gasp that occured across Wunderblog land when the above was posted.

I know funny...THAT was funny!

Congrats to Patrap and the others who did not take their eye off the ball (storm). I don't know whether she's going to go or not, but it certainly makes the next little while more interesting.
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ASCAT from earlier showed a closed surface circulation with 2 40mph wind barbs.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.