A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Quoting ElConando:
what did the 2pm TWO say?


0% chance of development. Now its 60%.
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4649. Asta
Statement as of 12:04 PM CDT on July 5, 2010
Coastal Flood Watch


... Coastal Flood Watch in effect from late tonight through Wednesday
afternoon...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a coastal
Flood Watch... which is in effect from late tonight through
Wednesday afternoon.

The combination of high astronomical tides... above normal water
levels... and increasing southeast winds will give the potential
for coastal flooding around high tide Tuesday morning and
Wednesday morning. The threat for coastal flooding is higher with
the Wednesday morning high Tide.

Water levels are currently 1 to 2 feet above normal. Tuesday
morning high tides are generally between 7 and 10 am CDT. Tides
may reach 2 to locally 3 feet above normal values.

Wednesday morning high tides... between about 8 and 11 am
CDT... are expected to run 2 to 3 feet... and locally higher... above
predicted astronomical values.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...


Flooding may result in water covering roadways and low lying
property around high tide in coastal areas along the Mississippi
coast... and near tidal lakes... outside of hurricane protection
levees in southeast Louisiana.


A coastal Flood Watch means that conditions favorable for
flooding are expected to develop. Coastal residents should be
alert for later statements or warnings... and take action to
protect property.
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MH09, if they do upgrade it.. when would you expect a renumber?
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what did the 2pm TWO say?
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4646. Patrap
95L feeder making it into Uptown NOLA..

4:30 pm CDT today

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125619
4645. Levi32
Quoting Tazmanian:



dont re call that storm when was this


September 2008.
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As they say in baseball "good eyes" Pat! BBL...
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4643. IKE
Quoting muddertracker:
Huh? 19.0/85.6 is over land...I'm totally confused..


That's over water and due south of the extreme western tip of Cuba or the Yucatan channel.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Pretty crazy how fast the blog is moving because of a low attached to a frontal boundary being shaded red by a man named "STEWART". Lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting StormW:
If they name 95L, then they'll have to go back and name the other two in post analysis...the NJ system, which was more tropical than this will ever be, and the system that developed an "eye" off the Carolina coast before landfall.


but if there is a closed low and Tropical Storm force winds occur on
the coast they are gonna catch considerable heat for not classifying it.
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Quoting muddertracker:
Huh? 19.0/85.6 is over land...I'm totally confused..


not even close to land

19N 85.6W is about 135 SE of Cozumel
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NHC

Not
Hardly
Consistent
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Quoting Tropicnerd13:
With all the conflicting ideas on here can someone please tell me or give me a link to the requirements for categorizing a system as a tropical or subtropical storm as well as naming it?


Google is a wondrous thing...BING!
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Quoting muddertracker:
Huh? 19.0/85.6 is over land...I'm totally confused..


What? Might want to look again...Those coordinates are in the NW Caribbean...
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Well i can't believe I got that one right too....
I called for 95L to be a TD at land fall a few days ago....
Kinda Crazy.... I almost thought it would never make it.
Also reminds me of the noname storm that came ashore
on Dauphin Island last year.... mmmmmm

Taco :o)
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Andrea had very little convection too, heck Barry had most of its convection 60 miles away from the center.
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4634. IKE
Quoting itrackstorms:


Storm - Just to be clear, the (storm) I mentioned was referring to 95L and not you. I appreciate your thoughtful analysis. I just find it ironic after yesterday afternoon's blog sniping that NHC jumps on board 50 miles before landfall.

Whether justified or not, the NHC blew it on this one. They are either going to be seen as inconsistent for naming a storm with conditions they said they wouldn't or said to be caught napping.

Near 0% to 60% in 3 hours. That's got to be a record. :)


LOL...true....from 0 to 60 in 5 seconds! She's got some pick-me-up!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting itrackstorms:


Sit back... close your eyes... you can almost hear the collective gasp that occured across Wunderblog land when the above was posted.

I know funny...THAT was funny!

Congrats to Patrap and the others who did not take their eye off the ball (storm). I don't know whether she's going to go or not, but it certainly makes the next little while more interesting.


Agreed. Never underestimated Mother Nature because Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned!
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4632. beell
If you could find a northerly or northwesterly wind in the surface obs on the north and west side of 95L one might be able to make the case for separation from the front.

For the most part, winds switch from SE on the east side to E (along the frontal boundary) west of the system.

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Quoting IKE:
I've picked up .87 inches of rain today here at my inland Florida panhandle location, from Bonnie...er....95L.


We've had well over an inch here. We have had very TROPICAL type rains. Very heavy, with little lightning.
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With all the conflicting ideas on here can someone please tell me or give me a link to the requirements for categorizing a system as a tropical or subtropical storm as well as naming it?
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Quoting MississippiWx:


I agree with that placement of the center. The one that spun off and raced into the Gulf had no chance and was the one I was referring to earlier today that had no convection. I didn't see how it could have become a tropical cyclone.
Huh? 19.0/85.6 is over land...I'm totally confused..
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95L still has rather weak convection. I'm still not very impressed and unless they pull another TS Arthur, I still have some doubts about it being named.
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4626. IKE
Drama time on the blog.

Props to 95L....hope no one is hurt by it....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
4625. JavPR
Quoting JLPR2:


I had a second light shower now XD
Well there goes our sunny days :\

only 3-4 days of sunshine...this sucked....
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4624. USSINS
4618. He may not, but I will. If it looks a duck, quacks like a duck, it's probably a duck.


And, that's respectfully said, too, StormW.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


it is now tropical, but it could still be attached to the front


I am just not sure how the chances all of a sudden go up so quickly
It can't be tropical if it is attached to a frontal boundary because that would make it baroclinically induced.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Appears Stewart does not agree with the analysis of both areas by the previous shift.
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Quoting StormW:


No gasp here...if they classify it, then they will be going against the criteria that Beven made clear to me at the National Hurricane Conference.


Storm - Just to be clear, the (storm) I mentioned was referring to 95L and not you. I appreciate your thoughtful analysis. I just find it ironic after yesterday afternoon's blog sniping that NHC jumps on board 50 miles before landfall.

Whether justified or not, the NHC blew it on this one. They are either going to be seen as inconsistent for naming a storm with conditions they said they wouldn't or said to be caught napping.

Near 0% to 60% in 3 hours. That's got to be a record. :)
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4620. Patrap
Quoting aquak9:
must be the holiday mets at the NHC this weekend. kudos pat.


Dem guys have a lotta constraints aquak9..and I'd hate to be in dem shoes.

We seen a lotta like these and the Cindy climo tie in was like destiny for this one.

Thanx for the kind word.

We all send ya'll Holiday Hugs too.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125619
4619. JLPR2
Quoting Levi32:


Yeah...honestly. It drives me nuts. 95L is classifiable but this was not?



Of course not, *answers while covering his eyes*
LOL!
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Quoting Levi32:


Yeah...honestly. It drives me nuts. 95L is classifiable but this was not?




dont re call that storm when was this
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114056
4615. IKE
I've picked up .87 inches of rain today here at my inland Florida panhandle location, from Bonnie...er....95L.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
4613. JLPR2
Quoting JavPR:

we haven't still seen big showers over here but the wind picked up nicely...it's getting cloudy now tough...


I had a second light shower now XD
Well there goes our sunny days :\
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I agree that 95L is still attached to the frontal boundary, but how come the chance for tropical cyclone formation increased so rapidly if it is still nontropical?


it is now tropical, but it could still be attached to the front


I am just not sure how the chances all of a sudden go up so quickly
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4611. Levi32
Quoting StormW:
If they name 95L, then they'll have to go back and name the other two in post analysis...the NJ system, which was more tropical than this will ever be, and the system that developed an "eye" off the Carolina coast before landfall.


Yeah...honestly. It drives me nuts. 95L is classifiable but this was not?

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I meant dagger, sorry for the typo.....
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Storm, do you expect a renumber soon? I don't know why the NHC put 95L up to Red so soon before landfall if it just moves on shore.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


I agree with you
I agree that 95L is still attached to the frontal boundary, but how come the chance for tropical cyclone formation increased so rapidly if it is still nontropical?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
4607. aquak9
Quoting msmama51:
Hello everyone. I am brand spanking new to this. I clicked on the Jeff Masters' blog by mistake, but boy am I glad I did. I intend to, what is it you call it? lurk? Until I know enough to open my mouth. Well, except for questions that is. Apologising in advance for anything stupid coming from me, but I feel you're never too old to learn, right? And I find this very interesting, as this affects almost everyone at sometime personally.


welcome to the addiction.

No cussin' no name-callin, no firearms.
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If StormW is putting the dager into 95L, that's good enough for me.....
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Quoting StormW:


Go here, click NCEP FRONTS

AVN LOOP


I agree with you if that map is up to date and recent.
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4604. Patrap
Quoting washingaway:
If they name it, they should name it Pat


pfffth....

I aint nuthing but a dude..

We all saw the system had potential..it just was the focus was on 96L.

And that will shift back soon nuff rightfully so.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125619
Quoting TampaSpin:


What criteria was it missing......are you saying it was still attached to a frontal boundary...


It wasn't Forecast! LOL
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Quoting Tazmanian:



we seen it 20times now thank you


Hey its a shock to me Taz, I had to post it to make sense of it. 95L will likely be TS Bonnie before landfall judging from that ASCAT pass.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.