A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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4701. aquak9
zombie alert
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yes i guess 3 maps was wrong......LOOK at this Graphic......you can easily see the Front in question......if 95L is at the very end of the front and NO one cannot say that is not the case.....then at what point can 95L be detached.....i can happen very quickly as it shows in this graphic i do believe.....


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4698. IKE
Quoting Topography:
That's one to know, Pat. Saty safe over tehre, plz. You know how Nature can be.



Hmmm.
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I gave the surprise storm in the GOMEX last year (Claudette) to TampaSpin.

Gotta give 95L to Pat, he new that this had potential. I even wrote it off.
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Quoting whs2012:
After looking at Patraps video, you must be CRAZY if you don't think 95L is a TD...it might even be a TS!


funny cuz I just had a similar thunderstorm come through my street here in St Pete in association with that spin off the coast of Tampa

Should that be named too?
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting Patrap:
95L feeder making it into Uptown NOLA..

4:30 pm CDT today

Very nice video there Pat!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
4693. Patrap
How bout dem Saints, eh ?
Quoting whs2012:
After looking at Patraps video, you must be CRAZY if you don't think 95L is a TD...it might even be a TS!


I sent it to the NHC e-mail.

For reference .

LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129910
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96L is still going to be the stronger of the 2 systems IMO


I am really not sure anymore whether 95L is attached to the front or not, the latest maps say it is, I can't tell

Either way the NHC I feel was right in the first place, this sudden jump to 60% is puzzling to me
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
96L organizing nicely.


I agree. That could be Bonnie or Colin (if 95L becomes Bonnie)
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4687. Asta
Quoting CybrTeddy:
If they do upgrade it, they better do it within the hour. This is about to make landfall. 96L is also increasing in organization.

Link

I agree that the public has a right to know.. especially if their cars are not parked on high ground or at least the Neutral Ground... ;)
but I also think some people might panic if they upgrade it... Katrina PTSD and all.. just MHO

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Quoting pcbsmokey:
Hmmm......HPC Surface Analysis



Edit: Link

Doesn't appear to be attached *shrugs*

It is not any longer :o)
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
4683. Patrap
hardcoreweather stuck to his guns as well.

Like a true trooper.

Mo props there fo sho..

.."Hooper drives the Boat"..!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129910
96L organizing nicely.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting ncstorm:
Im so glad that most of you bloggers dont work at the NHC..those people know more about storms than some of you ever will and to criticize them for not naming 95L which is nothing but thunderstorms with gale winds..every storm that hits the GOM is NOT a tropical cyclone..


lol I agree, I just don't even see what warrants the upgrade to 60%; it is making landfall NOW
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Looks like 95L and the front are still connected on the vorticity map...

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4678. Patrap
Landfall in the marsh is Kinda like landfall in a warm tub with cane grass.

Just a lil fact,,..that aint a beach down there.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129910
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
This is one reason why you never turn your back on a system that is in your backyard and you will never hear me say a system is dead until the threat is 0 even if it's not upgraded the effects will still be the same.


Props to you great job sticking to what you thought!
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(Jeff Master On Vacation)
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4675. GetReal
Quoting cajunkid:
Crow for many.

Never deal in absolutes.



You can say that again!!! Never discount those small compact systems....
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4674. hydrus
Quoting aquak9:


welcome to the addiction.

No cussin' no name-callin, no firearms.
No firearms?....Link
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22728
4673. ncstorm
Im so glad that most of you bloggers dont work at the NHC..those people know more about storms than some of you ever will and to criticize them for not naming 95L which is nothing but thunderstorms with gale winds..every storm that hits the GOM is NOT a tropical cyclone..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WOW! I left with a 0% and come back and find a 60%? WTH? I guess it detached itself from that ole' front.. Still probably won't get renumbered, convection is very weak.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
4671. Patrap
Quoting Topography:
WOW, Pat, that was one hell of a feeder band from Bonnie. Do you have your sutters on, just in case? Since the NHc faiiled to nail this one. Isn't this gonna catch all of the NOLA citizens off guard? Not to mention the oil spill.


WaS just a feeder squall..

Dead calm now.

LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129910
4670. Ossqss
Station SPLL1
LSU CSI
Location: 28.867N 90.483W
Conditions as of:
Mon, 05 Jul 2010 20:00:00 UTC
Winds: SE (140°) at 22.9 kt gusting to 26.0 kt
Significant Wave Height: 3.3 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 6 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.88 in
Air Temperature: 75.9 F
Water Temperature: 84.0 F
Visibility: 6.5 nmi
Tide: 1.89 ft (above MLLW)


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=spll1
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If they do upgrade it, they better do it within the hour. This is about to make landfall. 96L is also increasing in organization.

Link
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Quoting MississippiWx:


We've had well over an inch here. We have had very TROPICAL type rains. Very heavy, with little lightning.


Over here in Mobile we only had one little shower very early this morning @ about 5 am. It's been cloudy all day off and on, but that's been it.
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4667. IKE
95L/that woman...making landfall.....

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NHC forgot to factor in the:

JMOV


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but in the end I go with the NHC, but it is pretty obvious that at times they can be inconsistent

last year was a fantastic example; they named Grace out in the middle of nowhere but did not name either 90L or the system by NJ
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
4663. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129910
Hmmm......HPC Surface Analysis



Edit: Link

Doesn't appear to be attached *shrugs*
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look.... we always fail to realize that the guys at the nhc are the experts... we aren't. It doesn't look tropical to me either.. but the nhc thinks it is and they know more than me
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Quoting MississippiWx:


What? Might want to look again...Those coordinates are in the NW Caribbean...
oh..hehehe..been starring at that thing too long...thanx everyone...lol
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4656. IKE
Quoting Patrap:
95L feeder making it into Uptown NOLA..

4:30 pm CDT today



95L/Bonnie flexing her muscles....and she was written for dead yesterday. Props to you Pat for hanging in with her/it!
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
TN then people do not know the full criteria of a tropical system


I just had a downpour associated with the circulation offshore of Tampa with 40mph winds gusts and it felt tropical, should that area be named too?


NHC apparently thinks its tropical and has a chance, they bumped it up to Red alert. They even said '60% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone'
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
MH09, if they do upgrade it.. when would you expect a renumber?
I don't expect a renumber from 95L, but if we do get one it will be as it makes landfall.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
TN then people do not know the full criteria of a tropical system


I just had a downpour associated with the circulation offshore of Tampa with 40mph winds gusts and it felt tropical, should that area be named too?
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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