A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

Share this Blog
2
+

Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 4801 - 4751

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109Blog Index

Can they name 96L at the 8 pm outlook even after it made land fall StormW?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4800. aquak9
Quoting hurricanehanna:
rhut rho....backs out quietly


it's ok, hanna...I'll strap on the muzzle and behave.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
Not sure what the big arguement is about. 95L is not even a named storm right now.


pretty simple, all started when the NHC upped the chances of development all of a sudden to 60%; then the few who were making the case for 95L to be upgraded all basically said "I told you so, I told you so"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanehanna:
rhut rho....backs out quietly
Will you go back in for a scooby snack?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
also what is up with the NHC saying it's 50 miles away when it is clearly making landfall now




See the radar signature right south of the barrier island, thats the center of the storm. When they released that update it was a little further out. Plus island dont count as land. There talking about the coast line itself was 50 miles from the center.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I say al hell is breaking loose 95L could become TS Bonnie and 96L which I still do not think that it is at those coordinates I think it is a bit to the SW near 18 83.4 or at 17 85


WKC...You think this could become a tropical storm?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


It's humorous because half of the bloggers on here yesterday were RIP-ing it and those that weren't were asked/told...not to talk about it.

Classic.



What is humorous is we have a featured blogger who is defending himself against at least two... I don't even know what to call them... other then that misspelt colour word..

Storm... you know better then to feed them :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The winds in that squall line are probably stronger than the storm itself.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4792. ncstorm
Quoting whs2012:
StormW,

No, I know you know a lot more about storms than I do lol...but to me, the rating of a storm as a TD or TS shouldn't be "if it's attached to a frontal boundary or not", but "if it has a circulation, and the degree of impact it's going to bring to the area" (if it has TS force wind gusts, than it shouldn't just be thrown out the window). I'm sure your right about what your saying and the conference and all.But...Like example, don't you think a hurricane should have a category not just for strength but for size, and for barometric pressure? I went through Ike, and I can honestly say that it felt like a Cat 3..not a Cat 2. Idk. I'm a noob :D, but I think that this system should be given SOMETHING...

*Plus, I would have never said that to you. You're one of the best bloggers on here. I didn't even see your post until after I made mine.


It has been given something..its been name 95L..an invest..there is no consistency to label this a tropical storm according to the NHC..if they went around naming every storm according to this blog criteria we would be in the Z's by now..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I see the WU Home page now has 96L at 19 N 85.6 W.

This is becoming a farce. I don't think there are any coordinates left in the NW Caribbean to place this at.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
rhut rho....backs out quietly
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aquak9:
zombie alert

Ok, first question...what's a zombie for this blog?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4787. Drakoen
Not sure what the big arguement is about. 95L is not even a named storm right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Don't mess with the Coast Guard!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
96L is right here

AL, 96, 2010070518, , BEST, 0, 190N, 856W, 30, 1007, DB,
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114776
Quoting whs2012:
StormW,

No, I know you know a lot more about storms than I do lol...but to me, the rating of a storm as a TD or TS shouldn't be "if it's attached to a frontal boundary or not", but "if it has a circulation, and the degree of impact it's going to bring to the area" (if it has TS force wind gusts, than it shouldn't just be thrown out the window). I'm sure your right about what your saying and the conference and all.But...Like example, don't you think a hurricane should have a category not just for strength but for size, and for barometric pressure? I went through Ike, and I can honestly say that it felt like a Cat 3..not a Cat 2. Idk. I'm a noob :D, but I think that this system should be given SOMETHING...

*Plus, I would have never said that to you. You're one of the best bloggers on here. I didn't even see your post until after I made mine.
I think it's time for you to change your definition of a tropical cyclone. Here's the NHC definition for a tropical cyclone:

A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects).
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
4781. IKE
Quoting Orcasystems:


Its always safe in here :)
Thats why we have ignore buttons... that being said.. its getting humorous right about now :)


It's humorous because half of the bloggers on here yesterday were RIP-ing it and those that weren't were asked/told...not to talk about it.

Classic.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingaway:
NHC

Not
Hardly
Consistent


The devil is always in the details! they do their best
and i have a feeling they would be perfect like StormW
if it was not for the politics involved.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I see the low as being detached from the front... at least it is now. The frontal boundary maps are older than the 2:00 TWO (of 0% chance fame). Gotta question who's preparing the maps, too! Still looking for a closed circulation, though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
StormW i don't know this but, yes i do see the Warm front the maps show so not to disagree with the Warm front.....but, its not the Cold front that it once was.......does the Warm front not differ in a Cold Front attachment when the criteria for fronts are in place....Thanks!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bappit:

No, I don't think you know what you are talking about.


And where, pray tell, did your meteorology degree come from? Did you enjoy the trip to the NHC conference?? Geez, have some respect.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I say al hell is breaking loose 95L could become TS Bonnie and 96L which I still do not think that it is at those coordinates I think it is a bit to the SW near 18 83.4 or at 17 85
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11215
also what is up with the NHC saying it's 50 miles away when it is clearly making landfall now
Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
4772. Patrap
95L was/iz interesting..but its no Shaker or weather maker like its Big Brother was 5 years ago this night.





Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4770. aquak9
Topography- just when I think, time and time again, you have finally ground my last nerve? You find another one to grind.

I was in the mood to go butcher some zombies and here you are.

Sweet-talkin' the BigDawgs ain't gonna do ya no good.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Gulf buoys
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting msgambler:
Good evening Pat, water puppy, Orca, StormW, atmo, and all others I missed. Pat, is it safe for me to come in? Looks a few posts back and have to ponder the thought.


Its always safe in here :)
Thats why we have ignore buttons... that being said.. its getting humorous right about now :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I don't understand why they have 95L as a 30 kt system when there's barely anything higher than 25 kts being observed anywhere...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4766. Drakoen
It appears that northerly shear over 96L is lessing somewhat allowing for convection to slowly push northward. The 850mb vorticity is closer to the surface low which should aid in additional organization.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4765. IKE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ok guys how is this a TD or TS? Where is the "organized deep convection" that is needed for this to be classified? It is not there, period.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
95L is not a tropical cyclone. If they classify this as one, I'm sorry, but I've lost a bit more faith in the NHC's ability to forecast TC genesis.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting STORMTOPII:


And satellite imagery along with surface observations clearly indicates that it isn't.
Satellite imagery indicates that it is still attached and surface observations can't determine whether or not it is attached or not.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Good evening Pat, water puppy, Orca, StormW, atmo, and all others I missed. Pat, is it safe for me to come in? Looks a few posts back and have to ponder the thought.
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
Quoting Drakoen:
Wow I come back to see that 95L has a high chance of becoming a tropical storm lol


Yup, caught me off guard. It's really getting its act together quickly.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4759. Patrap
Well a Dog Walk is in order to watch the Low clouds swirls..


..Ciao
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4758. Levi32
Quoting StormW:


Ok...then where was the organized convection for the 12-24 hours the NHC requires?


Exactly the inconsistency....where is that required criteria gone to all of the sudden?
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26564
Quoting Patrap:
Folks can go back to 3 am here and see some were yakking up 95L organization.

But that may require effort, so I digress.


It was impressive at 3am....and we are headed to NOLA in a couple weeks if you need an extra Directv Dish!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Folks can go back to 3 am here and see some were yakking up 95L organization.

But that may require effort, so I digress.


Take the credit, Pat. You deserve it on this one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
Wow I come back to see that 95L has a high chance of becoming a tropical storm lol
LOL, it is still attached to a warm front and lacks organization on satellite.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
So is 95l moving any oil inland ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Well, as I was saying yesterday, these small systems that form... well... on the end of a FRONT can ramp up rather quickly. Looks like some of the louisiana coast will be experiencing tropical storm Bonnie tonight.

Told ya'll not to down-cast that system.


It is not a TS or a TD and should not be one, it has not ever had enough organized convection to be classified and it is now making landfall

The I told you so is way too early
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4751. hydrus
Quoting StormW:


Negative...this shows how the front comes across Florida and goes up in LA.

Someone said 96L is becoming better organized. Where the organization? I cant find it. The Floater looks disorganized.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20546

Viewing: 4801 - 4751

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.