A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

Share this Blog
2
+

Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 4851 - 4801

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109Blog Index

Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Point is, a system with winds upwards of tropical storm force is making landfall in southeast Louisiana. Why does it matter to us or the people affected what the NHC classifies it as?

No one wanted to watch 95l because it wasn't "tropical."


And that's the ONLY point most of us were ever trying to make. If it knocks a tree down on my roof, you think it really matters to me whether the NHC classified it or not?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


I don't think it's so bad as to not offer any coordinates. It still deserves to be an invest and thus coordinates must be given. They simply decided that the old surface low is no longer the dominant circulation, and the low-mid level center to the south has taken over.


Reminds me of pin the tail on the donkey.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Some people are bashing the NHC for being to bold. They are the ones making money, not us. I personally also don't think 95L's a tropical storm but if they name it they name it. 96L on the other hand.. I think we can all agree this has huge potential to be Bonnie (or Colin)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4847. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:
Actually, with 96L's new coordinates it is much better organized.

Excellent satellite view


Yeah it doesn't look half-bad at all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4845. Levi32
Quoting kmanislander:


Then perhaps they should consider not trying to give coordinates where none can be accurately placed with any degree of consistency.


I don't think it's so bad as to not offer any coordinates. It still deserves to be an invest and thus coordinates must be given. They simply decided that the old surface low is no longer the dominant circulation, and the low-mid level center to the south has taken over.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanehanna:
I know anyone has a right to express their opinion....however, to flat out call out Storm W and question his ...now that's just not right.
I 100% agree. Admin. needs to be cleaning house.
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
4841. Drakoen
Actually, with 96L's new coordinates it is much better organized.

Excellent satellite view
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29864
Be back later...
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting Hurricanes101:


It is not a TS or a TD and should not be one, it has not ever had enough organized convection to be classified and it is now making landfall

The I told you so is way too early
Point is, a system with winds upwards of tropical storm force is making landfall in southeast Louisiana. Why does it matter to us or the people affected what the NHC classifies it as?

No one wanted to watch 95l because it wasn't "tropical."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:


That is because 96L has competing vortices


Then perhaps they should consider not trying to give coordinates where none can be accurately placed with any degree of consistency.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


Thank you. I'm just saying, that if the are going to make a hard point about their criteria, they need to be consistent with it.


Hi storm, will 96L be getting into more favorable conditions as he moves forward or is it looking like it won't develop?
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
4835. KORBIN
Not sure what's going on with the blog this afternoon but you have to have some waders on to get though some of the garbage to find the meat and potatoes today.

StormW, What's up with the circulation off our Coast here in Tampa? Looks like a low but not finding it anywhere?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I know anyone has a right to express their opinion....however, to flat out call out Storm W and question his knowledge...now that's just not right.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4833. Levi32
Quoting superweatherman:
StormW... Can they still name 95L even after making landfall?


They technically could but would be reluctant to. They have classified a storm over Africa before, before it came off into the Atlantic.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4832. IKE
Quoting midgulfmom:
Fox News 8 N.O. Met Bob Breck has "viper" model bringing 96L just west of N.O. Wed. as rainmaker... Just sayin'...LOL Back to BBQ...BBL..again


He's a pretty good met from what I've read on here.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting atmoaggie:
LOL!
(I think this is dry sarcasm. I hope. Right?)


unfortunately, its proably not. It's like romper-room

[no offense to anyone specificly] on here lately.

makes for an entertaining 5,000 post blog though! [laughs]

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


I know Orca, but got some of the folks who sent me to the Conference to further my knowledge, I bring it back here, and well.....


And Storm, I think I speak for 99.9999999% of this blog when I say that we all value your expertise. I've learned so much over the last few years just reading your posts. My question to those questioning your knowledge is why they can't even show one little tiny bit of respect. It's one thing to ask a question to learn, but it doesn't seem to me that learning is the important thing to them... Kind of sad don't you think?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi all!

...high five to Hardcoreweather2010, Kristina40, Patrap and others who KNEW not to turn their back on 95L...

LOL...who'da thunk it?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
StormW... Can they still name 95L even after making landfall?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:


It has been given something..its been name 95L..an invest..there is no consistency to label this a tropical storm according to the NHC..if they went around naming every storm according to this blog criteria we would be in the Z's by now..


There is no Z name storm. LOL

Tell'em Storm, You are one of the few that actually knows what you are talking about.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4824. Drakoen
Quoting kmanislander:
I see the WU Home page now has 96L at 19 N 85.6 W.

This is becoming a farce. I don't think are any coordinates left in the NW Caribbean to place this at.


That is because 96L has competing vortices
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29864
Quoting taco2me61:

Hey take me with you LOL

Taco :o)

I'm watching from the sidelines....if the gloves come out...I'm a gone pecan
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Fox News 8 N.O. Met Bob Breck has "viper" model bringing 96L just west of N.O. Wed. as rainmaker... Just sayin'...LOL Back to BBQ...BBL..again
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting whs2012:
Miami,

What difference would it make if it was attached to a frontal boundary or not (impact wise)? Lol exactly nothing! It looks like a tropical cyclone to me. Looks like they either need to revise that, or it is not attached to the frontal boundary. And obviously NHC backs me up when I say it's not attached, because they gave it a 60% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone!
I understand what you mean. Regardless of it being named or not it will cause the same damage, and you make a very good point. But this is not a tropical cyclone.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting hurricanehanna:

maybe so Shaggy...but the boys are scarin' me!
lol
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2337
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Either way it's not gonna get named. They lucky guessed a NHC inconsistency. Just give 'em this one lol. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.


lol guess so
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7337
Quoting Hurricanes101:


pretty simple, all started when the NHC upped the chances of development all of a sudden to 60%; then the few who were making the case for 95L to be upgraded all basically said "I told you so, I told you so"


Either way it's not gonna get named. They lucky guessed a NHC inconsistency. Just give 'em this one lol. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
96L looks far more of a mess than Alex did at this point, and the conditions on the other side of the Yucatan aren't as favorable as when Alex made he trip either. Also its moving faster so won't have as much time to develop. On the plus side it wont be over land as long as Alex was (if at all) so isn't likely to deteriorate too much. All in all I think its reasnoble to give it a good chance of becoming a moderate TS by landfall somewhere in Texas.

What's all this fuss over 95L?? Does it matter whether it has detached from the front or not now, it's already over land.....having said this if it had another day over sea it might have been a problem, was just getting it's act together.

But it sure aint a TD right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanehanna:
rhut rho....backs out quietly

Hey take me with you LOL

Taco :o)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4814. Levi32
Quoting kmanislander:
I see the WU Home page now has 96L at 19 N 85.6 W.

This is becoming a farce. I don't think there are any coordinates left in the NW Caribbean to place this at.


It's torn for sure....the new coordinates are at the low-mid level center, and whether there is a new surface center forming under that or not remains to be seen. The old surface center north of the Yucatan Channel seems to be fading away, but yet it remains the focal point for vigorous spinning of the entire area on TPW imagery, which is usually a good indication of where the system is trying to spin up a dominant center.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting STORMTOPII:


ROFLMAO!!!You must be very inexpirienced in the field of Meteorology. Surface observations are crucial in the determination of the location of fronts.


13 years does not provide a long time line to acquire much in the way of experience but he is a nice kid.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4810. IKE
Quoting kmanislander:
I see the WU Home page now has 96L at 19 N 85.6 W.

This is becoming a farce. I don't think are any coordinates left in the NW Caribbean to place this at.


I agree with ya there on 96L...which looks no better now than it did at the latest TWO....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting muddertracker:
Will you go back in for a scooby snack?

maybe so Shaggy...but the boys are scarin' me!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I mean 95L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4807. aquak9
Quoting STORMTOPII:


ROFLMAO!!!You must be very inexpirienced in the field of Meteorology. Surface observations are crucial in the determination of the location of fronts.


and that is not the real StormTop.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


No, because as long as there are fronts attached, either way, it's still baroclinic in nature, not barotropic.


Thanks and yes that is why we sent you to the NHC Conference....Thanks!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:
I see the WU Home page now has 96L at 19 N 85.6 W.

This is becoming a farce. I don't think are any coordinates left in the NW Caribbean to place this at.
LOL, yup, those are the coordinates.

AL, 96, 2010070518, , BEST, 0, 190N, 856W, 30, 1007, DB,
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting Patrap:
95L was/iz interesting..but its no Shaker or weather maker like its Big Brother was 5 years ago this night.







wow, pat you can clearly see the strong rotation in that radar image.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting bappit:

No, I don't think you know what you are talking about.
LOL!
(I think this is dry sarcasm. I hope. Right?)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Can they name 96L at the 8 pm outlook even after it made land fall StormW?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 4851 - 4801

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
73 °F
Overcast