A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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21Z surface map from HPC. I guess at some point they decide when a low is no longer attached to a front, with 95L it was this afternoon.


Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11342
Quoting IKE:
4881...you sound like several bloggers from on here yesterday.

Look at the title of the blog...."A Tale of Two Invests"


Ike... when you say something like that you have to quote them... I have no idea what he said, I can't see that one.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
I see my little 95L is still making a nuisance of himself. Let's just call him "mini Alex" and move on. I just can't get that irate over whether the NHC names him or not. I just hope he didn't set things up to well for the next system coming along.
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Link

Can anyone enlighten me as to whether the spin south of the western tip of Cuba in this link is a low level, mid level, etc.?
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Afternoon all.

Still overcast rainy weather here. I jokingly said to someone today that this is the same weather that has been crisscrossing the NW Bahamas since last Wednesday.... lol

However, I see 95L may get an upgrade before landfall, per the special update at 5 p.m.???

And still no closed circulation on 96L?
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4896. USSINS
Let's just hope that 95L doesn't claim a life. IMO, it's always better to err on the side of safety and precaution. Of course, everyone has individual responsibility as well, but a fraction better approach to alerts could be beneficial, perhaps lifesaving.

I'm not saying call it a TS, but calling it a TD cannot hurt in these precarious scenarios. I think the NHC is completely competent, but let's get real here - substantial winds are coming ashore along with rainfall for flooding streets, etc - all of which are dangerous. Anything that contributes to awareness and saving life, I'm all for it, even if sometimes it's not "by the book."
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Low is heading toward me, I'll be watching my pressure to see how far it'll drop. :P


Weather station website
Member Since: February 21, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 340
4894. IKE
4881...you sound like several bloggers on here yesterday.

Look at the title of the blog...."A Tale of Two Invests"
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
4893. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
4892. ncstorm
Quoting hurricanehanna:


I wasn't talking about you...I don't even know what you posted and I think anyone can have their own opinion but to question someone like Storm who has the knowledge and expertise that he has? I just don't think other comments were appropriate


Well they question the NHC and NO ONE on this blog can touch them..if you post your opinion on this blog, then expect to get challenge..no one should come away with hard feelings because they were rebuted..if the NHC worried about everytime someone said something about their work, they would never put anything out..I have to agree with the other blogger about having the right to voice his opinion even if they are featured bloggers...if they post here in the blog, then its fair game to question it..Dr. Masters even gets subjective criticism from people on this blog but he dont go quoting his credentials when someone does it..just saying..
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Quoting Drakoen:


Yes that's exactly where I see it

Is that at the mid or lower level?
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Quoting msgambler:
Don't tell us what system to talk about. I think we can discuss whatever system we want.

I know huh? It is a WEATHER blog...
Plus, those of us who may get lots of rain are glad to know it is being monitored...
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


We going to do this again? I stated earlier the classification does not change the impacts of the system; but based solely on definition alone 95L has never and still does not met the criteria for classification

The NHC upped it to 60% and all of a sudden the few people who were following 95L like a hawk busted out like they had some major victory; we even got to hear a few speeches and yet it still has never been classified

too much of that I told you so mentality


I don't think its as simple as that. StormW rightly points out that it (95L) doesn't fulfill NHC's criteria for TS genesis. But it works both ways. One of NHC's arguments was that it was a baroclinic system. It was originally...but has not been baroclinic for days. The analyst's frontal analysis and placement was verging on imaginary. He or she placed a stationary front in a wind field perpendicular to the front. I am not able to generate any sort of local isentropic analysis here, but please someone tell me where the baroclinicity supposedly in the vicinity of 95L has been for the last couple of days?
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Quoting RecordSeason:
Quit yackin about 95L.

It's pathetic this thing even became an invest.
Don't tell us what system to talk about. I think we can discuss whatever system we want.
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4885. xcool



hmmm
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
4884. Drakoen
Quoting StormW:


Drak, do you have the center under the convection, near 20N;85.7W?


Yes that's exactly where I see it
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30825
NOAA has forecast up to 23 named storms for 2010. If they name 95L, that's one less we'll have to deal with later!
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Quoting Drakoen:



Several Honduran stations showing 1008 mb and falling. Calm winds.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


LOOKS like a Tropical System to me...i don't know about the rest of you.....but, i know what my eyes see!!!
Agree....Tropical it is.
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Quoting PensacolaBuoy:
It is a good thing for the novices to question the experts. If a knowledgable blogger states something as fact, it may be true. Then, when a dummy like me dissents, it prompts the smart guys and gals to lay out their reasoning... which helps me learn! It would be a boring blog if noone challenged others. It makes us all collectively smarter!


agreed, PB. My guess is the problem starts when the smart guys and gals lay out their reasoning, and its still not good enough, they still want to argue.
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Nice to finally see how the KIDS post are now getting hidden......thank you!
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Quoting whs2012:
hurricanehana,

If you're talking about me, I wasn't talking to him.

and msgambler,

I agree that StormW is excellent in his forecasting skills, but I don't think you're right for saying that no one can contradict what he is says. Emailing the admin...won't really do that much. I don't remember seeing, "can't have a debate with StormW" as one of the rules of this forum.


I wasn't talking about you...I don't even know what you posted and I think anyone can have their own opinion but to question someone like Storm who has the knowledge and expertise that he has? I just don't think other comments were appropriate
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4874. JRRP
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It is a good thing for the novices to question the experts. If a knowledgable blogger states something as fact, it may be true. Then, when a dummy like me dissents, it prompts the smart guys and gals to lay out their reasoning... which helps me learn! It would be a boring blog if noone challenged others. It makes us all collectively smarter!
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Quoting jlp09550:
It feels weird to see something like this so close, yet it's sunny and partly cloudy here..



LOOKS like a Tropical System to me...i don't know about the rest of you.....but, i know what my eyes see!!!
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CosmicEvents:
EUREKA!.....I've found it. The mother lode...the coc of 96L is at 18.1N, 82.5W.
.
.
.
.
Had to run the loop backwards at 45RPM and the rest is history. Where do I go to pick up my prize?


Your prize? It's PROBABLY the Beatles' Revolution album :P
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Quoting Drakoen:



Dang, that's a big drop.
Member Since: February 21, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 340
4867. Murko
Happy independence day CV
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4866. Drakoen

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30825
EUREKA!.....I've found it. The mother lode...the coc of 96L is at 18.1N, 82.5W.
.
.
.
.
Had to run the loop backwards at 45RPM and the rest is history. Where do I go to pick up my prize?
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Quoting PensacolaBuoy:
I see the low as being detached from the front... at least it is now. The frontal boundary maps are older than the 2:00 TWO (of 0% chance fame). Gotta question who's preparing the maps, too! Still looking for a closed circulation, though.
A little tidbit I learned recently, there is no objective frontal analysis algorithm being run at NOAA/NCEP/HPC/etc. Still the human and whatever his/her somewhat subjective interpretations of obs are...of course some things would drawn the same by anyone. Others not.
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Quoting Topography:
Ike, any CV discrepencies on the horizon?


Yes, Cat 12 headed for Hialeah!! Grab your curtain and hunker down!
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Quoting jlp09550:
It feels weird to see something like this so close, yet it's sunny and partly cloudy here..


too close for comfort for me...that's why I appreciate this blog. I get pre-warning warnings about anything impending. I just wish we could get a break from the rain here
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95l is not on shore. it is off shore still... it is also not moving due north.... so i think it has another few hours over water... and for all those saying it wont develop.... if it does.... you will feel stupid
Member Since: July 12, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 422
4860. Drakoen
It appears that 96L's relocating is justified by these pressure falls we are witness at this buoy
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30825
Quoting IKE:


I agree with ya there on 96L...which looks no better now than it did at the latest TWO....



Actually, I thought for the first time today that I could actually see some spin with 96L and it is around those coordinates with some cold cloud tops too. Thought it's the best it's looked in 24 hrs or so.
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It feels weird to see something like this so close, yet it's sunny and partly cloudy here..

Member Since: February 21, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 340
Competing vorticies.. Deja vu much? Another WPAC style tropical disturbance in the Caribbean.
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So they will just added to the total count for the year but as an unnamed storm...
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4855. Drakoen
Quoting kmanislander:


Then perhaps they should consider not trying to give coordinates where none can be accurately placed with any degree of consistency.


Maybe, but these new coordinates are more inline with SAB and TAFB.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30825
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Point is, a system with winds upwards of tropical storm force is making landfall in southeast Louisiana. Why does it matter to us or the people affected what the NHC classifies it as?

No one wanted to watch 95l because it wasn't "tropical."


We going to do this again? I stated earlier the classification does not change the impacts of the system; but based solely on definition alone 95L has never and still does not met the criteria for classification

The NHC upped it to 60% and all of a sudden the few people who were following 95L like a hawk busted out like they had some major victory; we even got to hear a few speeches and yet it still has never been classified

too much of that I told you so mentality
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting StormW:


Thank you. I'm just saying, that if the are going to make a hard point about their criteria, they need to be consistent with it.


I don't disagree with ya there, but you and i have both seen things much less be declared a TD that looks much worse than this i would say. I don't know that a Warm Front is attached or not.....but, the LOW LEVEL circulation is certainly there and the affects are being felt.....so with that what would be your choice to call it just a Low Pressure system coming ashore as well it might just rightfully be correct.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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