A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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4951. hydrus
Quoting StormW:


It's open on the west side.
Do you think there was ever a closed low with 95L?
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Quoting jaevortex:


I think he got excited lmao


No kidding LOL
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4949. Drakoen
Quoting kmanislander:


Wow, I come out to bat for you then you hit me with the caps lock !!. Please leave the room and reenter LOL


lol
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4948. Patrap
..best to weigh anchor and get on the Boat..

.."Hooper drives da Boat"..!!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
Tropical forecasts are very educated guesses, and I don't fault the NHC for missing one, but a "near 0%" chance is risky. Don't you think they should have given some chance for 95L to develop at 2:00? I think someone was overly confident in their opinion. They should leave some room for error unless they are absolutely certain IMO.
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weather prediction is the art of an educated guess. the more educated you are the more of an artison you become. some on here are very educated such as stormw. we can dissagree with the NHC and debate their prediction because it is a "guess ". but they did have Alex dead on balls accurate.
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4944. Dakster
Life's too short to take a blog that seriously...

I am not saying we should disrespect each other -- on the contrary. It should be more civil.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10785
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Quoting StormW:


I won't know until we see what it does in the next 24 hours or so...has to get organized and get a good surface circulation. Then I can re-analyze everything as far as shear, dry air, land interaction, etc.
ty sir
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4941. xcool
MississippiBoy .no one knows
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Ossqss:
Interesting imagery, and slightly off topic, but its coming your way Tampabay :)

Quoting kmanislander:


Wow, I come out to bat for you then you hit me with the caps lock !!. Please leave the room and reenter LOL


I think he got excited lmao
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95L made landfall already. NHC if they want to upgrade it will within 10-15 minutes or at 8 pm.
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4938. Patrap
Quoting msgambler:
We are still getting blasted for talking about 95L. It seems we can only talk about the systems they want to talk about .


Well I dont see a lot of post anymore after today that's for sure.

Go fig ya.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
THE ONLY DIFFERENCE WITH THIS INFO THAT YOU PROPOSE DRAK IS THAT THAT BOUY IS NOT WHERE THE SYSTEM IS THAT BOUYS #42057 LOCATION ARE AT 16.83N 81.501W WHICH MAKE MY POINT ABOUT THE LOCATION


Wow, I come out to bat for you then you hit me with the caps lock !!. Please leave the room and reenter LOL
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4936. xcool
btwntx08 i will.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Stormy is 96l going to Texas,your thoughts.
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Quoting Patrap:
So much for "Forget 95L"

pfffth

Im second guessing a decision I made 2 Mths ago..In a BIG way.


How bout dat 96L though?

LOL

We are still getting blasted for talking about 95L. It seems we can only talk about the systems they want to talk about .
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
Wow, umm code red on 95L.. interesting, won't get classified but it reminds me of 90L last year in May.
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THE ONLY DIFFERENCE WITH THIS INFO THAT YOU PROPOSE DRAK IS THAT THAT BOUY IS NOT WHERE THE SYSTEM IS THAT BOUYS #42057 LOCATION ARE AT 16.83N 81.501W WHICH MAKE MY POINT ABOUT THE LOCATION
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Quoting spathy:
Wow there seems to be some unusually high tension on here tonight.
The NHC is full of humans!
Humans have a lot of discussions.
The world is not perfect and Humans are far from perfection.
They do the best they can!(NHC)
And The NHC does a pretty good job of saving lives.
Any slack can be obtained here as long as we keep the speculation and bickering to a minimum!
WU is a great place!
I know the blog moves quickly this time of year.
And we all want our posts to show up in a timely fashion.
But lets just step back and try to think about if our posts are informative.
Or are they continuing useless chatter?
Some fun is allowed but not for long as the season ramps up.
Stay safe and informed during the season that is now upon us.
JMO
:0)
I enjoy the debate. Call me crazy. I just don't enjoy when the discussion is disrespectful, threatening, or uses inappropriate language. Children and adults can learn quite a bit by arguing as long as they don't let their emotions and egos get in the way.
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Quoting kmanislander:
What's funny is that Wunderkidcayman that always maintained the "center" of 96L was very close to where it is now pretty much got run out of town for saying that.

It can be a cruel world at times.

So true Kman, it is nice to hear diverse viewpoints like yours and other bloggers on here, many times these bloggers will see things otherwise overlooked.
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Quoting StormW:


Yeah, it is. However, we're still missing the organized deep convection for the 12-24 hour time frame required by the NHC.


Agreed
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4925. Patrap
So much for "Forget 95L"

pfffth

Im second guessing a decision I made 2 Mths ago..In a BIG way.


How bout dat 96L though?



LOL

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
Quoting kmanislander:


You and Forest Gump
Life is like a bowl of gumbo at PaPa Sonnier's...never know what you'll find in there...
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4921. xcool
btwntx08 lmao
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
4919. hydrus
Quoting Ossqss:
Interesting imagery, and slightly off topic, but its coming your way Tampabay :)

Kinda strange watching the thunderstorms move from south to north this time of year.
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I think the NHC will bring back the yellow circle on the Antilles disturbance at 8:00 p.m.
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Quoting btwntx08:
guys tell ike im still sry about yesterday remember i was pissed there is no reason that he put me on ingore im not like that it just happens


You and Forest Gump
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4916. Ossqss
Interesting imagery, and slightly off topic, but its coming your way Tampabay :)

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4915. Drakoen
95L may be an Arthur type situation where it gets named as it moves on shore
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Merida Mexico
5 PM (21) Jul 05 29.73 (1006) NNE 8

Campeche
6 PM (22) Jul 05 29.7 (1005) NNW 12

Chetumal

6 PM (22) Jul 05 29.67 (1004) Calm

Cancun Internation Airport

5 PM (21) Jul 05 29.79 (1008) S 3 light rain

Link
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
21Z surface map from HPC. I guess at some point they decide when a low is no longer attached to a front, with 95L it was this afternoon.




see now that is different lol
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If you look at the visible loop of 96L what I called "center" can clearly been seen at 18N/82.5W
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4909. Drakoen
Quoting TerraNova:

Is that at the mid or lower level?


Low level. Go to the CIMSS 96L page and then check vis 1km and check the surface, ship, and buoy observations.
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Quoting kmanislander:
What's funny is that Wunderkidcayman that always maintained the "center" of 96L was very close to where it is now pretty much got run out of town for saying that.

It can be a cruel world at times.


yup I agree, he seemed to be right about that one
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Stormw What do you think the strength of 96L will be if impacts the Galveston area ?
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What's funny is that Wunderkidcayman that always maintained the "center" of 96L was very close to where it is now pretty much got run out of town for saying that.

It can be a cruel world at times.
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So much for the theory that oil on the surface of the water would impede development of a tropical system. 95L seems to be doing quite well even in close proximity to land.
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Quoting xcool:



hmmm


I think that's the first time this year with two areas highlighted with possible TC formation on the TAFB map.
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21Z surface map from HPC. I guess at some point they decide when a low is no longer attached to a front, with 95L it was this afternoon.


Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11343

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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