A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Quoting Orcasystems:


yes, but it also gives you the option of trusting it.
Not on a Mac.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
150. IKE
If you could go back and look at the vortex the NOGAPS showed with Alex as it was approaching northern Mexico, it would make 96L look like a depression on that run.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Each time I click on this link it tells me it is an untrusted site.


It's OK... it won't eat your computer
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Basically what it shows... is one of those tuck your head between your legs scenarios.
Is it the 12z NOGAPS?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Each time I click on this link it tells me it is an untrusted site.


yes, but it also gives you the option of trusting it.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Would someone tell me what i see here is not true?
Link
Quoting AussieStorm:
Would someone tell me what i see here is not true?
Link
Each time I click on this link it tells me it is an untrusted site.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Link doesn't work.


Basically what it shows... is one of those tuck your head between your legs scenarios.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

I just clicked it,,, it does work. maybe u need to refresh it
That happens with the Navy site, happens to me too.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Link doesn't work.

I just clicked it,,, it does work. maybe u need to refresh it
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Link doesn't work.


He may be linking to the NOGAPS model which always gives that certificate error message.
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Quoting Weather456:
121. stormwatcherCI 10:10 AM AST on July 04, 2010 Hide this comment.

Quoting Weather456:
I suspect a broad circulation is developing south of the easternmost Caymans.

That's what I saw earlier closer to 80W than 83W and south of 18N. Could this become the surface low ?



from surface obs the lowest pressures are around this area.
Thanks. So maybe the next update with initiate a little further east than the current ones ?
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Would someone tell me what i see here is not true?
Link


Oh......
Thats not good
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Would someone tell me what i see here is not true?
Link


Link doesn't work.
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Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning All

July Tropical Weather Outlook - Active July Expected

Tropical Update




Extremely informative review of June and predictions for July - I learned a lot from your post and enjoyed reading it! Thanks so much for the information in an easy to understand style for us lay-people 456! It is much appreciated!
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Would someone tell me what i see here is not true?
Link
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July Tropical Weather Outlook - Active July Expected

Tropical Update


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i liken this to a boiling pot. i believe you have a couple of areas trying to lower pressures who's to say the blob near jamaca does not get it done.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey kmanislander what about the pressures near Jamaica because I belive the true COC is jusr SW of Jamaica


Pressures are not low in the Caribbean at this time. In fact, surface pressures are relatively benign.

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey kmanislander what about the pressures near Jamaica because I belive the true COC is jusr SW of Jamaica
Telling from the vort max location and ship observations the COC would be forming to the SW of the Cayman Islands.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
hey kmanislander what about the pressures near Jamaica because I belive the true COC is jusr SW of Jamaica
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12719
131. IKE
Buoy 42057 at 16.8N and 81.5W....also, 24 hours ago the pressure was at 29.89 inches.

Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 100 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 21.4 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 25.3 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 7.5 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 5.1 sec
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.88 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): 0.02 in ( Rising )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.6 F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.4 F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 76.1 F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 90.5 F
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
SHIPS overdoing intensity like usual as the BAMM takes 96L through the non-mountainous part of the Yucatan. Regardless, every other intensity forecast takes 96L to "Bonnie".

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting 422brzyldy:
I have a question before all the nonsense spewing bloggers get in on this then I'll leave everyone alone and go back to trying to learn something from the sensible bloggers. Why, when there is a system in the Gulf do some always aim it for their own area? Have they ever seen the destruction from a hurricane? NHC doesn't even have to get the evac part of the word out before I pack up and head for higher ground. Sorry but I just have to know why they would wish that hell on themselves.
Your point is the reason I like kmanislander's forecast so much more than others on here. Plenty of knowledge on here, but kman, to me, shows the least bias in his analysis.
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Quoting Dakster:
Anyone else miss having QuickScat?

I don't like the Ascat as it always seems to just miss the area I want to look at.

i miss it
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Quoting all4hurricanes:
Where do the sophisticated or Dynamic models take 96L?
So far these are all the 12z models that have initialized on 96L.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Ok, back,,, what did i miss?
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This is the buoy immediately South of Grand Cayman. No significant pressure falls there and current pressure near 1012 mb.

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121. stormwatcherCI 10:10 AM AST on July 04, 2010 Hide this comment.

Quoting Weather456:
I suspect a broad circulation is developing south of the easternmost Caymans.

That's what I saw earlier closer to 80W than 83W and south of 18N. Could this become the surface low ?



from surface obs the lowest pressures are around this area.
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Where do the sophisticated or Dynamic models take 96L?
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Anyone else miss having QuickScat?

I don't like the Ascat as it always seems to just miss the area I want to look at.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:
I suspect a broad circulation is developing south of the easternmost Caymans.
That's what I saw earlier closer to 80W than 83W and south of 18N. Could this become the surface low ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
LOOKS LIKE 32 POINTS WE NEED 3 TO 5 POINTS FOR A T.C.F.A.


Not that I do not believe you, but can you elaborate on how you came up with 32 points???

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Quoting kmanislander:


Good morning.

96L is not as developed as Alex was near these coordinates as Alex had a TD classification by now. That said, there are a few differences between the two from here on.

The first is that 96L is tracking further N and appears to be heading for land near Cozumel. That end of the Yucatan is relatively flat compared to the Belize area where Alex crossed and should not pose as much of a deterrent to the developing circulation. It will impede it though for as long as it is crossing land but TDs have developed over the Yucatan peninsula before.

Secondly, a passage over the Yucatan near Cozumel will be a relatively short affair on a diagonal.

Finally, although the TCHP has cooled in this area due to cloud cover, rain and the influence of Alex the values are higher than the Gulf of Honduras which is the track Alex took.

In summary, 96L has a few things going for it to develop and become a TD but it is organizing very slowly at the present time.

Thanks
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The spin that I'm seeing doesn't agree with the NHC map thingy. So I guess its ok that it looks a lot more N than wnw. But that's not the official one so nobody pay me no mind. :)
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Quoting sailingallover:
The Wave at 55W this morning. The wave is well defined on Windsat imagery.
There is dust on either side of the wave so the convection is well defined but it is in a clear slot.
Shear is decreasing in The SE carib this morning and for the next 36-48 hours as the TUTT over PR dissapates. An upper level low forms over the coast of SA and SE carib which should really enhance convection. It will probably make invest between now and monday night if everyone at the NHC is not off on vacation.
But then shear moves back in at 10-20knts after Tuesday onward so it's best chance for surprise development for the next 5 days is the next 36-48 hours. No models have this wave developing as of yet. But I'd give it a chance of TD at 15N 65W on Monday if the ULL gives it a good boost.





That WINDSAT pass is from yesterday.
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in the carribean we are seeing much like we did with alex much more a western pacific development and not your tradional tropical wave.
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Quoting scott39:
Goodmorning Kman, I read that 96L looks like its going to take a similar path to Alex. I see 96L taking a totally different path than Alex, even if it heads towards MX/TX boarder. I feel like its going to go over its own warm waters and not have much land interference going into the GOM! Would like your thoughts on this and also how much faster do you anticipate 96L to develope than Alex?


Good morning.

96L is not as developed as Alex was near these coordinates as Alex had a TD classification by now. That said, there are a few differences between the two from here on.

The first is that 96L is tracking further N and appears to be heading for land near Cozumel. That end of the Yucatan is relatively flat compared to the Belize area where Alex crossed and should not pose as much of a deterrent to the developing circulation. It will impede it though for as long as it is crossing land but TDs have developed over the Yucatan peninsula before.

Secondly, a passage over the Yucatan near Cozumel will be a relatively short affair on a diagonal.

Finally, although the TCHP has cooled in this area due to cloud cover, rain and the influence of Alex the values are higher than the Gulf of Honduras which is the track Alex took.

In summary, 96L has a few things going for it to develop and become a TD but it is organizing very slowly at the present time.

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
INV/95/L
MARK
27.3N/85.6N
Is 95L trying to develope farther E?
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The Wave at 55W this morning. The wave is well defined on Windsat imagery.
There is dust on either side of the wave so the convection is well defined but it is in a clear slot.
Shear is decreasing in The SE carib this morning and for the next 36-48 hours as the TUTT over PR dissapates. An upper level low forms over the coast of SA and SE carib which should really enhance convection. It will probably make invest between now and monday night if everyone at the NHC is not off on vacation.
But then shear moves back in at 10-20knts after Tuesday onward so it's best chance for surprise development for the next 5 days is the next 36-48 hours. No models have this wave developing as of yet. But I'd give it a chance of TD at 15N 65W on Monday if the ULL gives it a good boost.



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112. IKE
Looks like 95L spinning in the bottom portion of this 248NM radar out of New Orleans...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
GHCC Loop
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INV/95/L
MARK
27.3N/85.6N
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Nope no floater.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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If it wasn't pouring down rain I'd be out swimming, getting fireworks and prepping the grill for BBQ tonight.
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106. IKE
Watching the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean

Jul 4, 2010 7:56 AM

The remnants of Alex, while continuing to weaken, are shifting out of Mexico to West Texas bringing persistent soaking rain northward into the southern Plains. None the less, there are no organized tropical weather systems within the Atlantic Basin at this time, although there are a few areas of interest.

An area of low pressure now centered about 165 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi River is still disorganized. The system is moving west at about 5-10 mph and should slowly turn more northwesterly tonight and tomorrow. Strong wind shear has precluded development thus far. Some lessening of regional shear is indicated for the next 12-24 hours, and slow development can take place as the weather system drifts north or northwest towards the coast.

Also of interest is a broad area of rather disorganized thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea that is linked to an easterly tropical wave. This area of disturbed weather is being caused by a weakening upper-level storm. A low-level circulation center could take shape within this area of disturbed weather during the one to two days that could ultimately lead to development. Some computer forecast information suggests some chance for tropical development later this week over the Bay of Campeche.

We will also continue to monitor a large area of disturbed weather east of Florida. Some computer forecast information suggests some chance for a weakly organized system evolving northeast of the Bahamas around the middle or latter part of the week.

And last, a strong tropical wave and, to the north, an upper-level trough, are located east of the Lesser Antilles marked by clusters of thunderstorms. This system will bring the Lesser Antilles gusty winds and heavier rainfall tonight and Monday into early Tuesday. Any development of this system will be slow during this time. However, conditions might become more favorable for development of this system once it reaches the central Caribbean later in the week.

By Senior Meteorologist Jim Andrews
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Latest Tropical Blog
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BRB, I expect a floater from the SSD when I get back.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
AOI/XX/XL
MARK
12.3N/58.5W
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
LOOKS LIKE 32 POINTS WE NEED 3 TO 5 POINTS FOR A T.C.F.A.


Not quite there yet...
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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