A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Recon going to check out 96L tomorrow if organization warrants.


Yup.
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Link... A lot of action with the GEM model...
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Recon going to check out 96L tomorrow if organization warrants.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
INV/96/L
MARK
16.3N/80.6W
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000
NOUS42 KNHC 041445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT SUN 04 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-034

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 05/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 05/1500Z
D. 19.5N 86.0W
E. 05/1730Z TO 05/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 06/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARK: TASKING FOR 04/1800Z AND 05/0600Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 04/1200Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
SEF
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Quoting kmanislander:
This image shows that 96L is poorly organized at this time. The area of lowest pressure is somewhere in the clear area between the complexes of thunderstorms. Until they either come together and stop competing for the available energy in the area or one becomes dominant development will continue to be slow.



Reminds me of 93L...

Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning all. I notice no one is responding to requests about info on the front-induced activity east of the Bahamas. I know there was some hint of something forming in the area North of here, but haven't yet looked at model runs this a.m. to see what's become of that.

As I said last night, there's a lot of energy associated with it.....



Wow, didn't notice that, but 456 did. No vorticity, though.

Quoting IKE:
Does this look familiar on track? 12Z NAM @ 84 hours shows a low....heading for northern Mexico...




High pressure is the USA's best friend...unless it's too hot.....



Just like Alex.
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195. IKE
Quoting Orcasystems:


Actually... have not had breakfast yet... SWMBO is still dead to the world. IF it does not rain... will wake her up and have brekkie, then golfing.


FOUR!
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Ohhhhhhhhh
going to have the check the Seismic monitor later.. house just did the shaky thingie.
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Quoting zoomiami:


rare form today I see


Actually... have not had breakfast yet... SWMBO is still dead to the world. IF it does not rain... will wake her up and have brekkie, then golfing.
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192. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 AM CDT SUN JUL 04 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY
FLORIDA TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 27N90W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO
TURN NW AND REACH THE SOUTHERN LOUISIANA COAST TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MON AS IT BECOMES DIFFUSE. HIGH PRES CENTERED OFF THE U.S.
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BUILD A RIDGE SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A
TROPICAL WAVE OR POSSIBLY A LOW PRES SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE MON AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND INTO THE SW GULF TUE AND WED. THIS SYSTEM MAY THEN
REACH THE MEXICAN COAST THU.
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Quoting IKE:
Does this look familiar on track? 12Z NAM @ 84 hours shows a low....heading for northern Mexico...




High pressure is the USA's best friend...unless it's too hot.....

Poor "btwntx08", the dude is going to get pounded left and right. I'm eager to see what type of track the 12z ECMWF shows.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
here ya go ike you can borrow my drinking smily

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189. IKE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
got popcorn and coke ready ike


LOL.
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188. IKE
Does this look familiar on track? 12Z NAM @ 84 hours shows a low....heading for northern Mexico...




High pressure is the USA's best friend...unless it's too hot.....

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Quoting Orcasystems:


thats what you get for surfing the web with a hamburger :)


rare form today I see
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4158
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
sorry let me fix it for ya

unless MH09, but what if the vort max moves toward SW Jamaica. I have seen this happen before.With the Obs well they change as well and maybe we are all seeing COC, maybe we have multiple COC like 93L/ALEX, but weaker, well let us see what happens. Also if you look at the past track using BEST track plots, you will see that it had move quite far SW south of Jamaica. I belive the first two plots are right but, I think it continued WNW-NW and they caught up on another COC, but anyway let us see what pan out.

is this better for ya MH09
Lol yes it is. Well like I said, looking at vorticity there is just one circulation, rather than many. This circulation is very weak at the surface and could possibly relocate to somewhere else.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Hello all, this is ShenValleyFlyFish's daughter. He asked me to post a comment letting you know that he had emergency surgery yesterday to remove a ruptured appendix. We're hopeful that his recovery will go well and will post an update soon. Thanks all, he sends his best regards.


Ouch, been there done that...
Keep us posted please.
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Back later
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Quoting IKE:
***drama warning***

A WU drama warning is now in effect on Dr. Masters blog. Take all necessary precautions to protect life and property and sanity!

$$$
got popcorn and coke ready ike
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i understood everything quite clearly perhaps your the one being fuzzy
Sorry KOTG I just didn't get it.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning all. I notice no one is responding to requests about info on the front-induced activity east of the Bahamas. I know there was some hint of something forming in the area North of here, but haven't yet looked at model runs this a.m. to see what's become of that.

As I said last night, there's a lot of energy associated with it.....



This area should still be watched,considering that is how some July storms form in that area.The U.S.A Atlantic coast south of North Carolina is a hotspot for TC formation.

Quoting Weather456:
I do not think the NHC is being aggressive enough on 96L. It has more like a 40% chance.


Any chance of a Orange circle by 2:00 PM?
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Quoting IKE:
***drama warning***

A WU drama warning is now in effect on Dr. Masters blog. Take all necessary precautions to protect life and property and sanity!

$$$
Drum roll, please!!!
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Hello all, this is ShenValleyFlyFish's daughter. He asked me to post a comment letting you know that he had emergency surgery yesterday to remove a ruptured appendix. We're hopeful that his recovery will go well and will post an update soon. Thanks all, he sends his best regards.

i wish him the best
get some rest
all ten of the same
will still be here
when he gets back
tell him KOTG says that
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178. IKE
***drama warning***

A WU drama warning is now in effect on Dr. Masters blog. Take all necessary precautions to protect life and property and sanity!

$$$
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Oh......
Thats not good


I don't like that model run at all... Hopefully the next one drops the storm going through SFL...
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Quoting rarepearldesign:


I know nothing about weather. I just like following and learning. I was just typing what I saw on the imagery. Ask the knowledgeable as to the model credibility before cancelling a trip.
I hear ya. I pretty much know who to listen to on this site. I usually go along with the consensus as well as the NHC's assessments.
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What a clear day on the northern gulf coast..seldom see a cooler day in July. I say we just enjoy & stop looking at "invests" and the oil for awhile.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Joe B this morning.



SUNDAY 9:00 AM

CLASSIC SUMMER MAP FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY

A blazing heat wave is evolving for much of the east the next several days, and its unclear when temps will go below normal again over the east this month! ...bla bla bla

....ciao for now ****


As much as I don't enjoy the basically unfounded criticism of TPC, he is right about the heat wave. All models develop a huge H500 ridge nearly coast to coast thru the week with ECMWF developing a > 600 dm ridge (that means widespread highs > 100F and lows around 80F) thru most of the continental US during the next 7 days and beyond. Heat waves, in the aggregate, can be as much of a threat to health than can any single Hurricane.
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sorry let me fix it for ya

unless MH09, but what if the vort max moves toward SW Jamaica. I have seen this happen before.With the Obs well they change as well and maybe we are all seeing COC, maybe we have multiple COC like 93L/ALEX, but weaker, well let us see what happens. Also if you look at the past track using BEST track plots, you will see that it had move quite far SW south of Jamaica. I belive the first two plots are right but, I think it continued WNW-NW and they caught up on another COC, but anyway let us see what pan out.

is this better for ya MH09
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It makes it very difficult to understand what you're saying if you don't use periods or other punctuation marks.
i understood everything quite clearly perhaps your the one being fuzzy
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Hello all, this is ShenValleyFlyFish's daughter. He asked me to post a comment letting you know that he had emergency surgery yesterday to remove a ruptured appendix. We're hopeful that his recovery will go well and will post an update soon. Thanks all, he sends his best regards.
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NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico

As of Sun 04 Jul 2010 14:30:02Z
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm using Firefox and it just plainly says that the connection can not be made.

LOL!!


Im using firefox and see everything just fine. However Im on a Mac and that could be the difference..
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Quoting AllBoardedUp:
There goes the weekend(s)!!! So much for trying to plan a summer vacation!


I know nothing about weather. I just like following and learning. I was just typing what I saw on the imagery. Ask the knowledgeable as to the model credibility before cancelling a trip.
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Quoting AllBoardedUp:
There goes the weekend(s)!!! So much for trying to plan a summer vacation!


if its even close.... your going to be a busy little camper
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Quoting kmanislander:
This image shows that 96L is poorly organized at this time. The area of lowest pressure is somewhere in the clear area between the complexes of thunderstorms. Until they either come together and stop competing for the available energy in the area or one becomes dominant development will continue to be slow.


This is the tropical process at work.. Takes time to cook in the oven
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Quoting rarepearldesign:
Shows three storms hitting Texas from what I can tell. Two in the mid-south, one north.
There goes the weekend(s)!!! So much for trying to plan a summer vacation!
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Doesn't have anything to do with it being a Mac. I'm on one right now and it asks me each time I click a link. It depends on the browser you're using.
I'm using Firefox and it just plainly says that the connection can not be made.

Quoting Orcasystems:


thats what you get for surfing the web with a hamburger :)
LOL!!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
unless MH09 if the vort max moves toward SW Jamaica I have seen this happen before and with the Obs well they change as well and maybe we are all seeing COC maybe we have multiple COC like 93L/ALEX but weaker well let us see what happens and if you look at the past track using BEST track plots you will see that it had move quite far SW south of Jamaica I belive the first two plots are right but I think it continued WNW-NW and the cought up on another COC but anyway let us see what pan out
It makes it very difficult to understand what you're saying if you don't use periods or other punctuation marks.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Not on a Mac.


thats what you get for surfing the web with a hamburger :)
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Quoting itrackstorms:


It's OK... it won't eat your computer
LOL
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Not on a Mac.
Doesn't have anything to do with it being a Mac. I'm on one right now and it asks me each time I click a link. It depends on the browser you're using.
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Shows three storms hitting Texas from what I can tell. Two in the mid-south, one north.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Oh......
Thats not good

95L goes into Tx/La border, then you see where 96L goes,,, Texas.... then there is a "system' that crosses Fla into the GOM and into Tx. then another "system' develops off Panama/Columbia and hits Nicaragua/Honduras, Then another "system" develops just west of the ABC islands.
That's a scenario i don't wanna see

WOW
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What about that tropical wave that just came off of African near Cape Verde?
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unless MH09 if the vort max moves toward SW Jamaica I have seen this happen before and with the Obs well they change as well and maybe we are all seeing COC maybe we have multiple COC like 93L/ALEX but weaker well let us see what happens and if you look at the past track using BEST track plots you will see that it had move quite far SW south of Jamaica I belive the first two plots are right but I think it continued WNW-NW and the cought up on another COC but anyway let us see what pan out
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Joe B this morning.



SUNDAY 9:00 AM

CLASSIC SUMMER MAP FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY

A blazing heat wave is evolving for much of the east the next several days, and its unclear when temps will go below normal again over the east this month! That doesnt mean the entire month will be as this upcoming week, but it means that the idea of "equal chances" in the east will burn up like dry tinder in a brush fire. NOAA is out of touch again on the heat, as their amazing streak ignoring how hot this summer is over much of the south and east continues. The break in Texas is there, but they will recover as the month wheres on, but plainly the core of the worst heat relative to averages instead of the July Texas to mid atlantic will be mid and north atlantic and into the lakes.. right where much of the nations population can see and feel it.

In the tropics we have several whack a mole systems. There is a tropical wave entering the caribbean, two frontal waves, one in the central gulf that should go into Louisiana tomorrow, the other off Florida, and what may anther western gulf development.. the area of disturbed weather over the western Caribbean. Like Alex, this is not a tropical wave though of course TPC says it is. If it is a wave moving west at 15-20, how is it we have looking at this budding area in the same place for 3 days? Because its not a wave, its gradually lowering pressures and increasing upward motion caused by the pattern and the development of abnormally low pressures, if only by a millibar or two, over abnormally warm water. TPC should send some of their people out the southwest Pacific to watch typhoons develop. That is the kind of situation we have now, simply the overall pattern causing a large area of upward motion. The trackable tropical wave is there coming from the east. One has to remember as these waves get more pronounced we will shift back to the normal atlantic development pattern, which should be abnormally high this year. After all if you have an area favorable for development where one sees thunderstorms just starting to gather, and then you start getting true waves in there, look out. But how do they explains a westward moving wave a 15-20.. in the same general area the past 3 days. Lets see 20 times 24 is 480... times 3 days is 1440. These thunderstorms are not 1440 miles west of where they were starting Thursday and really started cranking Friday.

But if you are going to call 947 mb with a 15 mile wide circular eye a cat 2 ( strongest cat 2 on record) when you had 946 mb further north as a cat 4 in 1957, then I guess you can do that.

Remember the new math is not what the answer is, but what you feel it is.

Bottom line.. We have to watch where this finally shakes out after it gets across the Yucatan. Once the pressure falls consolidate, then we can see where this will develop. The GFS is doing what it always does.. lets heat out so it cant focus it. The Canadian is having a very very tough time this summer folks. Its got so much feedback it spins up everything it sees. That, but the way, may work later in the season. The euro has this back into the western gulf with a west turn again late in the week. One thing, there is alot of heat being released with it and it is something that has to be watched.

Just like I am confident the CFS will have a better idea of the pattern going into the winter season once the La Nina couples correctly and it can just forecast the steady state ( although wild cards such as the affects of high latitude volcanoes TWO YEARS AGO and the low solar cycle may make that tricky) TPC will do great this year in the meet of the season once big storms develop early. The modeling they have is very good at that and so the big ones coming from a long way off will have me singing their praises and agreeing with them. But right now, I dont think they understand that what they are seeing is more like the way typhoons develop.. large scale upward motion with spread out centers of low pressures, and waves that respond not to solid movement, but to feedback of upward motion pulses. Its not unlike thunderstorm boundaries establishing fronts further south in the summer..but with non baroclinic forcing. The have to look at the mean flow over the gulf and the western Caribbean to understand this is not your standard, west moving wave at 15-20 situation. You cant do that with a mean flow 5k-20k the way it is. The 500 mb pattern is wild in 48-72, for geeks like me. When do you see the mean upper flow, as analyzed every 10dm, in Chicago coming from south of central America! The surge at 850 mb is already to the Yucatan how do you have thunderstorms clustering 500 miles south east of there if this is not a process that involves several factors, not tropical wave moving west at 15-20?

Time to head to NYC for the fireworks

ciao for now ****
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Morning all. I notice no one is responding to requests about info on the front-induced activity east of the Bahamas. I know there was some hint of something forming in the area North of here, but haven't yet looked at model runs this a.m. to see what's become of that.

As I said last night, there's a lot of energy associated with it.....

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Quoting Orcasystems:


yes, but it also gives you the option of trusting it.
Hell, if ya'll trust it I guess I can trust it.
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This image shows that 96L is poorly organized at this time. The area of lowest pressure is somewhere in the clear area between the complexes of thunderstorms. Until they either come together and stop competing for the available energy in the area or one becomes dominant development will continue to be slow.

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Quoting Orcasystems:


yes, but it also gives you the option of trusting it.
Not on a Mac.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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