A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Quoting ThePlywoodState:
my salutes to you, pat! on this fourth.


We salute All Americans and the Territories Today.

Be Safe,and enjoy your holiday ThePlywoodState.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419
Murko, hows the weather over there? Still raining?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Happy 4th of July to all. Tell our wonderful service men and women thank you and my God keep them safe in there task of protecting our freedom, Remember those who have paid the ultimate sacrifice in defense of this country. May God keep them and their family in his loving arms.
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Happy 4th everyone....looks like the tropics will be giving us a weeks worth of fireworks. Lets see what happens....
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Poor "btwntx08", the dude is going to get pounded left and right. I'm eager to see what type of track the 12z ECMWF shows.

yea what can u say lol
Member Since: July 13, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Hello all, this is ShenValleyFlyFish's daughter. He asked me to post a comment letting you know that he had emergency surgery yesterday to remove a ruptured appendix. We're hopeful that his recovery will go well and will post an update soon. Thanks all, he sends his best regards.


What! They won't let him weather blog from the hospital bed. What is this world coming to?

Wishing him a quick recovery.

With respect to others not in the USA, Happy Independence Day!

Watching the potential fireworks(invests) in between hot dogs, adult beverages and fireworks.
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Quoting ThePlywoodState:
so, what gives, y'all! is this gonna be a mexico year or a conus year?


I would be betting on the daily double... both
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my salutes to you, pat! on this fourth.
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Good Morning and Happy 4th to Everyone....Too windy in the Big Bend of Florida to fish off-shore this weekend and the coastal waters near the river entrances are all stirred up.....Like throwing your lures and bait into a swirl of chocolate milk......We may have a repeat of Alex next week but too early to tell yet...See Yall Tommorow.
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Los Model Plots AL96
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419
so, what gives, y'all! is this gonna be a mexico year or a conus year?
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still, yeah it has to drench us while you get fireworks. lovely...
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95L and 96L 12z MODEL RUNS

Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
Quoting ConchHondros:
Ooh Rah WU...Happy Independence day Americans! Take time to thank a Vet today and if he's a jarhead...better buy him a beer


Now thats a very cool post.

Ill have a Dixie Please..tyvm!!!

SEMPER FIDELIS
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419
Someone had a bad night Amigo..?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419
Ooh Rah WU...Happy Independence day Americans! Take time to thank a Vet today and if he's a jarhead...better buy him a beer
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swfl looks like it could clear out for a while this afternoon from TPA area southward,might be some nasty wx along the coast though, around fireworks time IMO....
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
ok why is the SSD site so dreadfully behind with their floaters?
Because they are terrible, use these instead:

Current Satellite Imagery for the Tropical Atlantic
Interactive Global Geostationary Weather Satellite Images

There are many more, but those two are the best.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194

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happy 4th, all.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Oh......
Thats not good


Why does it have to pick on us here in Texas!

Morning all.
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228. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
1130 AM EDT SUN JUL 04 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W S OF 20N IS MOVING W AT
10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE WILL REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND
GULF OF HONDURAS EARLY MON NIGHT BEFORE MOVING INLAND ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA LATER ON MON NIGHT
POSSIBLY AS A LOW PRES SYSTEM. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVING IS
OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 16N55W TO 9N61W...MOVING W AT 16
KT. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY MON...
AND INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED AND INTO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THU.
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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ok why is the SSD site so dreadfully behind with their floaters?
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Having experienced doom..

It passes in time,

fortunately,,Model Pixels dont doom anyone.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419
Quoting AussieStorm:
The Doomsday scenario.....








iF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT;BOY OH BOY the oil spill clean up is doomed.And to say for Texas and La.watch out.
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hello, everyone, good morning.
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big picture:96L has a large broad circulation and will take time to organize,if it forms expect another monsoon like TC IMO...(pattern developing here???)
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.."You're a Grand Ol' Flag"..



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419
220. 7544
does any one know what the gfs and ngp are taking to so fla here tia happy 4th to allLink
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@ Shen's Daughter....

Sorry to hear about your dad, and glad to know he's ok. My dad went through that when I was a kid and it was pretty scary. Luckily appendicitis is one of those things if caught in time that is likely to result in full recovery. Give him our best wishes!
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The Doomsday scenario.....








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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
why does it seem that this early season the forecast is on the Yucatan/Mexico region. All the waves that were once Cape verde waves are in the Caribbean and following the axis of the high. If this plays true, could we be looking not at a large scale problem here in the US but more of a caribbean set up much like we did with Mitch and associated storms?


its a building pattern yes
focus at the moment
appears to be west carb deep s west gom
we have yet to get a deep east atl system
to truly est a pattern for the season
now if and when that pattern starts
then we will know if
the season will focus
more across the southern part of basin
as oppose to a
northwesterly part
of the basin
like always
we wait watch see
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96L



High amplitude wave, likely to become 97L later today.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Baha on 154: That is the mess that nailed and drenched South Florida yesterday. I would not be surprised if that came through here again.
Got us too last night. Massive lightning storm, couple of power-outs, couple solid inches of tropical type rain.

Kinda wierd for this time in July.... I associate such weather more with early june late July...
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Good morning......

What a wonderful day down in Clearwater Beach...... RAIN!!!!!!!!! RAIN!!!!!!!! RAIN!!!!!!!!!

Ok.....

So much moisture everywhere, if i didnt know better i would swear that we have a depression developing close by.

The little area south of LA is maintaining some t-storms and u can see a spin...... You never know...... and of course the spin south of Cuba looks like it has all the moisture it needs to make something of itself. Time will tell.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419
212. txjac
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Hello all, this is ShenValleyFlyFish's daughter. He asked me to post a comment letting you know that he had emergency surgery yesterday to remove a ruptured appendix. We're hopeful that his recovery will go well and will post an update soon. Thanks all, he sends his best regards.


Wow, hope shen gets better soon! That's the third person that I know that has had emergency eppendix surgery in about a month!
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Baha on 154: That is the mess that nailed and drenched South Florida yesterday. I would not be surprised if that came through here again.
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I think 96L needs to consolidate on convection rather than being split up into 3 pieces.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Orcasystems:
Ohhhhhhhhh
going to have the check the Seismic monitor later.. house just did the shaky thingie.


Nothing on USGS or NRCAN site...yet...
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Quoting IKE:
3. REMARK: TASKING FOR 04/1800Z AND 05/0600Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 04/1200Z.


RIP 95L....soon.

NHC thinks 96L may come in further north on the Yucatan then Alex..... then with building high pressure it may get forced back west before making it's final landfall in northern Mexico.


I don't think 95L should ever have been designated.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Hello all, this is ShenValleyFlyFish's daughter. He asked me to post a comment letting you know that he had emergency surgery yesterday to remove a ruptured appendix. We're hopeful that his recovery will go well and will post an update soon. Thanks all, he sends his best regards.


Thanks for letting us know - glad it got handled immediately and wish him a speedy recovery!
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Whack a mole systems? Nice. Do those develop in mamby pamby land? Oh..good morning.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2351
why does it seem that this early season the forecast is on the Yucatan/Mexico region. All the waves that were once Cape verde waves are in the Caribbean and following the axis of the high. If this plays true, could we be looking not at a large scale problem here in the US but more of a caribbean set up much like we did with Mitch and associated storms?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
542

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Quoting homelesswanderer:
Thanks for the update DRC. Enjoy your holiday. :)

Hope I'm not flirting with a ban here.

Happy Birthday Suite Madam Blue!


Has to be the ugliest band ever.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6147
202. IKE
3. REMARK: TASKING FOR 04/1800Z AND 05/0600Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 04/1200Z.


RIP 95L....soon.

NHC thinks 96L may come in further north on the Yucatan then Alex..... then with building high pressure it may get forced back west before making it's final landfall in northern Mexico.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Recon going to check out 96L tomorrow if organization warrants.


Yup.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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