A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Quoting Murko:
If there be an object truly ridiculous in nature, it is an American patriot, signing resolutions of independency with the one hand, and with the other brandishing a whip over his affrighted slaves.


Read your history. There was great controversy during the debate prior to the Declaration of Independence. The authors needed unity in the declaration, and could not take on the issue of independence along with emancipation. It is sad it took decades for emancipation. It took a while for the country to mature, and I know of no better place or form of government. Yes, I'am an American and proud of it!

I do, however, respect your opinion, and respect your nationality.

Thank a Vet today, and remember those who gave everything. Don't drive under the influence. Stay safe everyone.


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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


wishcaster LOL
LOL, well an anticyclone usually moves along with the system so... Lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting IKE:



Hmmm...similar writing pattern.


admin need to get this clown out of here for good

now he is stooping so low to copy someone elses' handle and avatar and then claiming the other has done the same and reporting them. He is trying to get people banned

Admin take care of this clown once and for all because he keeps coming back
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Ike, you usually have the steering patterns around, what does it look like for future steering in the Caribbean?
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Quoting leo305:
95L has a ball of convection over it..

its very small and can spin up quickly
That means absolutely nothing. It still has to deal with being attached to a frontal boundary (thus being non-tropical), dry air, high shear, and proximity to land. IMO, it shouldn't be an invest anymore.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Caicos, well I hope that his idea of attacking me is not misconstrued by those on the blog and I am considered anything else.
Take it as a complament plywood. He just "wants to be just like ply".
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I think it could become a named storm believe it or not. Conditions are marginal for development at the moment in the upper levels but the GFS forecasts an anticyclone to develop aloft. From what I'm seeing the area will likely move towards the west and affect Florida. What is rather interesting is that the GFS moves the anticyclone to south Florida so that most mean the system will move in the direction as well.


wishcaster LOL
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Quoting Murko:
If there be an object truly ridiculous in nature, it is an American patriot, signing resolutions of independency with the one hand, and with the other brandishing a whip over his affrighted slaves.
Kiss off
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yep.

geez,,, i hope it don't came true of the blog will go into meltdown.
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Quoting ThePlywoodState:


how dare you, you were the one that clearly stole my original identity and avatar description on here. good attempt to turn the table around at me, though, you've got some nerve, pal. moreover, your little stunt will not go unoticed, as i've already informed the admin about it, anyhow, back to the tropics. by the way, happy 4th you and yours. this bicekerring could have not arrived at anymore of a worser time, disputing this during america's birthday, -_-
I have come to realize your main goal on here is to cause problems and if you wish to report me to admin please BE MY GUEST ! You are the impostor as everyone knows.
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290. IKE
Quoting ThePlywoodState:


how dare you, you were the one that clearly stole my original identity and avatar description on here. good attempt to turn the table around at me, though, you've got some nerve, pal. moreover, your little stunt will not go unoticed, as i've already informed the admin about it, anyhow, back to the tropics. by the way, happy 4th you and yours. this bicekerring could have not arrived at anymore of a worser time, disputing this during america's birthday, -_-



Hmmm...similar writing pattern.
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INV/96/L
MARK
16.6N/81.1W


AOI/XX/XL
MARK
12.3N/58.9W
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I think it could become a named storm believe it or not. Conditions are marginal for development at the moment in the upper levels but the GFS forecasts an anticyclone to develop aloft. From what I'm seeing the area will likely move towards the west and affect Florida. What is rather interesting is that the GFS moves the anticyclone to south Florida so that most mean the system will move in the direction as well.
At 78 hours you can see the anticyclone over the Florida straights.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
95L has a ball of convection over it..

its very small and can spin up quickly
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276: You would need the high to move from its present location before seeing the axis of which this system is traveling along shift. Basically as I said before it seems that all of our Cape Verde waves are following this same pattern right now. Until something happens, this seems to be the way it will be until mid to late July.

Anyone have a steering map to post, that can give us an idea of the future steering in the Caribbean area?
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It's become very windy here the last few minutes with gusts to 36 mph and heavy rain about to come ashore from the South.

96L trying to get its act together it would seem.
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Hurricanes, if one thing that gets me is when ppl want to mess with what I am know for in here. My name, and photo.
You have mail.
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
msgambler, morning to you as well. Any information coming out as to whether that new skimmer is working any better?
You would have to ask Sir Pat about that one. He is in a better area to know the answer to your question. But I sure hope so.
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
Quoting Murko:
Enough with the 4th July crap already. We know what date it is and we're not all American.


ya see, thats why they took prayer out of schools.Statements just like that one.

It's our birthday GET OVER IT.
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If you look at the history of mankind, and not just the United States, you realize that great wealth has always been accumilated by Nations and Empires as the result of cheap or slave labor whether it be Europe, Asia, Africa, Middle East, and the Americas.....Take Your Pick....But to live in the US, whether immigrant or not, to enjoy the benefits of living here as compared to the rest of the world, and, to criticize his Great County, and it's independence, on this day (and on a weather blog) is unfortunate....You can go back where you came from.
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95L on radar

Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
The system off the coast, between where Baha and I are is worth watching. I know some models have been pointing at that area for a while hinting at development. With water temps as they are and information out there as to development, I would watch that area more so than anything basically because of its proximity to S. Fla.
I think it could become a named storm believe it or not. Conditions are marginal for development at the moment in the upper levels but the GFS forecasts an anticyclone to develop aloft. From what I'm seeing the area will likely move towards the west and affect Florida. What is rather interesting is that the GFS moves the anticyclone to south Florida so that most mean the system will move in the direction as well.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Caicos, well I hope that his idea of attacking me is not misconstrued by those on the blog and I am considered anything else.
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Happy Independence Day, to the Americans, anyway. The rest of you are welcome to quietly disregard this message.
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msgambler, morning to you as well. Any information coming out as to whether that new skimmer is working any better?
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
just so that you know whoever is called ThePlywoodState is a troll, took my name and photo


ThePlywoodState is
One of the latest incarnations of
Janiel Francisco Vargas
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Hurricanes, if one thing that gets me is when ppl want to mess with what I am know for in here. My name, and photo.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL, the blog would certainly be crazy. At the moment I think 95L should be discontinued though. From what I'm seeing right now, I think we will be by Colin come July 15th.


Yeah I think 95L will be deactivated before the other two become an invest.. but we might be tracking 3 invests at once soon.
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Good morning Pat, MH09, Plywood, and all others, Happy 4th to all.
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
Quoting BahaHurican:
@ Shen's Daughter....

Sorry to hear about your dad, and glad to know he's ok. My dad went through that when I was a kid and it was pretty scary. Luckily appendicitis is one of those things if caught in time that is likely to result in full recovery. Give him our best wishes!
I second that. Hope the holiday/weekend hospital crew is capable of more good than harm, for a change...(never guaranteed)
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Quoting AllStar17:
I can see a hint of a circulation to the west of Jamaica on this visible loop.


as can I, but It may just be a mid level spin.. who knows
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The system off the coast, between where Baha and I are is worth watching. I know some models have been pointing at that area for a while hinting at development. With water temps as they are and information out there as to development, I would watch that area more so than anything basically because of its proximity to S. Fla.
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
just so that you know whoever is called ThePlywoodState is a troll, took my name and photo


We think it is a certain blogger of the 3 initial persuasion
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting AussieStorm:

is that what that model i posted screen grabs from picking up on... the red off Fla.???
Yep.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Can you imagine tracking 4 invests at once? lol
LOL, the blog would certainly be crazy. At the moment I think 95L should be discontinued though. From what I'm seeing right now, I think we will be by Colin come July 15th.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
96L's vorticity is all around 80-85W on the CIMSS 850mb map.
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just so that you know whoever is called ThePlywoodState is a troll, took my name and photo
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260. Murko
If there be an object truly ridiculous in nature, it is an American patriot, signing resolutions of independency with the one hand, and with the other brandishing a whip over his affrighted slaves.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Chance of becoming an invest.

Yellow signifies low.
Orange signifies medium.
Red signifies high.
Purple signifies very high.


is that what that model i posted screen grabs from picking up on... the red off Fla.???
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Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
I can see a hint of a circulation to the west of Jamaica on this visible loop.
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
iF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT;BOY OH BOY the oil spill clean up is doomed.And to say for Texas and La.watch out.

Yeah, my thinking too
Quoting Murko:
Enough with the 4th July crap already. We know what date it is and we're not all American.

nothing wrong with being patriotic mate. I'm in Sydney Australia and I have no problem with it. It's actually 5th July here now.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Chance of becoming an invest.

Yellow signifies low.
Orange signifies medium.
Red signifies high.
Purple signifies very high.



Can you imagine tracking 4 invests at once? lol
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting btwntx08:

yea what can u say lol
LOL, well you might be affected by 96L over there in Brownsville.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Chance of becoming an invest.

Yellow signifies low.
Orange signifies medium.
Red signifies high.
Purple signifies very high.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Happy 4th to everyone out there, I will be over to eat my steak soon so look out for me lol
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting ThePlywoodState:
my salutes to you, pat! on this fourth.


We salute All Americans and the Territories Today.

Be Safe,and enjoy your holiday ThePlywoodState.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129793

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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