A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Quoting soflamac:


wee bit of revisionist history here. they took prayer out of school because it does not belong there. Are you so myopic that you can't even acknowledge that other religions exist? And if you can see beyond your nose, which religion's version of prayer would you allow?


"One Nation, under God" enough said
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Quoting stormpetrol:

South Sound Road, just before you turn on to walkers road, just east of Miss Lassie's house.


Wait until the rest of this stuff blows in. There may be more trees down before the day is out.
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Quoting kmanislander:
1500 UTC vort map. The area just East of the islands looking very impressive. This will likely be an invest soon IMO

Yeah I'm thinking some sort of shading at 2PM along with invest status later in the evening.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting soflamac:


wee bit of revisionist history here. they took prayer out of school because it does not belong there. Are you so myopic that you can't even acknowledge that other religions exist? And if you can see beyond your nose, which religion's version of prayer would you allow?
POOF
Quoting soflamac:


wee bit of revisionist history here. they took prayer out of school because it does not belong there. Are you so myopic that you can't even acknowledge that other religions exist? And if you can see beyond your nose, which religion's version of prayer would you allow?


So what exactly does this have to do with the Tropical weather in the atlantic?
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AOI #1 and 96L



AOI #2

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
East End is POURING and very windy indeed.


Lots more to come.
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Gee, i haven't added anyone to my ignore list for a while then I get 2 fine candidates. I hope they enjoy being on my list, I will enjoy the blog much more without them here.

Parts of Western Australia freeze through record cold



Much of the country's west has been shivering through cold nights for more than a week, but the recent cold blast has dropped minimums to record breaking lows.

A low is spiralling just off the south coast of Western Australia and is directing cool winds into the state. These winds have remained dry and the clear skies are allowing overnight temperatures to dip far below their average.

Locations in the Central West and Lower West districts fell as much as 10 degrees below the average, breaking their July record minimums. Such locations included:
- Pearce: -2 degrees, coldest July night in 66 years of records
- Badgingarra: 1 degree, coldest July night in 45 years of records

Geraldton received their coldest night in 69 years of records for any month, falling 10 degrees below average to -0.4 degrees.

Perth has seen their longest streak of minimums below five degrees in 113 years of records, after dropping to 0.6 degrees last night.

The nights will remain cool over the next few days, but will not be as extreme as the past few nights. By the middle of the week cloud will move in hold the minimums closer to average.

© Weatherzone 2010
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1500 UTC vort map. The area just East of the islands looking very impressive. This will likely be an invest soon IMO

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Quoting kmanislander:
Here comes the heavy stuff from the SE. This image only a few minutes old.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting kmanislander:


Wow. Based on the sat images it looks like really nasty stuff will soon be here coming in from the SE. Which road was he on ?.

South Sound Road, just before you turn on to walkers road, just east of Miss Lassie's house.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7862
Quoting FLdewey:
Still not much out there eh? Stagnant and hot here in east central Florida.. smoke from the grill is covering the neighborhood.

Can't wait for the sea breeze which will obviously be delayed yet again today by slow heating.



You have not been looking at the models... ohh your going to get a sea breeze soon :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting kmanislander:
Here comes the heavy stuff from the SE. This image only a few minutes old.

East End is POURING and very windy indeed.
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Here comes the heavy stuff from the SE. This image only a few minutes old.

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Quoting msgambler:
Yes Orca. He is soooo discrete and Good morning to you sir.


Good morning... its a wonderful day :)
KOG is being good... its a long weekend... there is stuff to watch in the GOM.. and we have T times. What more could you ask for.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
324. atmoaggie

Well said.
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Yes Orca. He is soooo discrete and Good morning to you sir.
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
Quoting msgambler:
What are you trying to say KOTG....LOL good morning


You have to love it.. KOG is so sensitive and uses Kids gloves :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting stormpetrol:

Yep, really squally here thats for sure, my brother just called and told me a tree just missed his car by about 5 feet when it fell across the road, not looking good!


36mph winds can do that.. just imagine a hurricane.. I'm telling you people aren't prepared
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
Lots of lower level convergence and upper divergence associated with 96L but surface pressures are not falling.
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Quoting stormpetrol:

Yep, really squally here thats for sure, my brother just called and told me a tree just missed his car by about 5 feet when it fell across the road, not looking good!


Wow. Based on the sat images it looks like really nasty stuff will soon be here coming in from the SE. Which road was he on ?.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and to set the record straight

plywoodstatenative
has been a blogger for over 4 yrs now

theplywoodstate
is a new ly created handle by a former blogger thats trying to decoy himself around a permanent bad under a different username
What are you trying to say KOTG....LOL good morning
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
Quoting kmanislander:


Just saw 36 mph at my home. Also heard the CAL Twin Otter just go by overhead !. Hope they are strapped in tight.

Yep, really squally here thats for sure, my brother just called and told me a tree just missed his car by about 5 feet when it fell across the road, not looking good!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7862
Quoting Murko:
If there be an object truly ridiculous in nature, it is an American patriot, signing resolutions of independency with the one hand, and with the other brandishing a whip over his affrighted slaves.


Murko, I take it you are NOT an American so kindly keep your disrespectful comments about us Patriotic Americans and our Country to yourself. Thanks and I hope you have an awesome Independence Day
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Like anyone, most anywhere, can really say that they haven't benefited either directly or indirectly from the climate of ingenuity and/or personal freedoms created in 1776. What if the entire western hemisphere didn't have a Bill of Rights, anywhere? What if we all were subjects of a monarch in Europe?

Not that the US is a lesson in perfect foreign relations lately, but tough to say that most of the world, and especially the western hemisphere, isn't the better for it.
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The item to speak of is where this mess between the Bahamas and South Florida is located. If you remember the postings before, its located just about over the Gulfstream. We have noted in other postings about the temps running in that area, if this were to develop spin to it, I do believe the NHC would definitely take an interest in it. However this begs the question, could location over the Gulf stream with the SST's as they are bring about rotation from what appears to be just a mess of storms?
Member Since: November 15, 2005 Posts: 16 Comments: 4189
321. IKE
317...I'm not sure what your problem is but...

(1)You need to grow up.
(2)Quit copying others SN/avatar.
(3)Admin needs to permanently get you off of here...which apparently they can't.
(4)You're like an Ever-ready battery...just goes on and on.
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Nice satellite view of 96L
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and to set the record straight

plywoodstatenative
has been a blogger for over 4 yrs now

theplywoodstate
is a new ly created handle by a former blogger thats trying to decoy himself around a permanent ban under a different username
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
95L could easily get a Subtropical Classification before landfall
Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
Something on this page is making my browser take forever to load

Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7683
Quoting stormpetrol:
Link
Winds gusting to 40mph Owen Roberts Airport, Grand Cayman, click on link and watch it real time.


Just saw 36 mph at my home. Also heard the CAL Twin Otter just go by overhead !. Hope they are strapped in tight.
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wow guys 96L must be getting its act together the wind pick up and two doors of my house just flung open and these doors were closed good wow
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11987
This is starting to look interesting.

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311. IKE
Quoting skepticall2:


You got them confused ike


Yeah I do....sorry.

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Link
Winds gusting to 40mph Owen Roberts Airport, Grand Cayman, click on link and watch it real time.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7862
Quoting IKE:


Go west young man/JFV.
Ike, wrong one.
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Don't quote, respond to, or feed the trolls.

Happy 4th to everyone - and especially to the vets. We have two Iraqi combat vets in our family, brothers, fathers, and grandfathers who have served our country -- truly an important holiday for our family.
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A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 125 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND DRY AIR IN THE MID- AND
UPPER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE CURRENTLY INHIBITING
DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES
INLAND LATER TODAY OR MONDAY.



Leo305 it is still nontropical and attached to a frontal boundary. As seen in the 8AM TWO it is moving inland later today or tomorrow. It has less than a day not only to make that warm-core transition but also to organize and strengthen enough to even be named a depression. I say there's no chance.

Edit: Forgot to mention the dry air and vertical shear it also has to overcome..
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INV/95/L
MARK
27.8N/85.7W
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304. IKE
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Ike, you usually have the steering patterns around, what does it look like for future steering in the Caribbean?


Go west young man/JFV.
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Quoting ThePlywoodState:


how dare you, you were the one that clearly stole my original identity and avatar description on here. good attempt to turn the table around at me, though, you've got some nerve, pal. moreover, your little stunt will not go unoticed, as i've already informed the admin about it, anyhow, back to the tropics. by the way, happy 4th you and yours. this bicekerring could have not arrived at anymore of a worser time, disputing this during america's birthday, -_-


LOL! The admin probably ignores anything you send him/her because the admin already knows your JFV, or will soon enough!
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Quoting Murko:
If there be an object truly ridiculous in nature, it is an American patriot, signing resolutions of independency with the one hand, and with the other brandishing a whip over his affrighted slaves.


Read your history. There was great controversy during the debate prior to the Declaration of Independence. The authors needed unity in the declaration, and could not take on the issue of independence along with emancipation. It is sad it took decades for emancipation. It took a while for the country to mature, and I know of no better place or form of government. Yes, I'am an American and proud of it!

I do, however, respect your opinion, and respect your nationality.

Thank a Vet today, and remember those who gave everything. Don't drive under the influence. Stay safe everyone.


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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.