A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

Share this Blog
2
+

Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 451 - 401

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109Blog Index

Just saw also Aussie. So sorry to hear that. Our prayers are with you and your family.
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
For the wave approaching the eastern islands...what movement does the steering pattern favor for the next few days? It's in what I call that "sweet spot." Many systems which enter the Caribbean at that latitude often pose a threat for us here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I know no one reliable said it would be slow. I just didn't think things would heat up quite this fast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:

no one reliable said it was going to be a slow season... it all pointed to a hyper-active season.

Thanks for the Condolence's.
It hasn't really hit me yet that my favorite uncle is gone, and being 1000's of miles away makes it even harder. He's at peace now and has joined my favorite auntie in the after-life.


Sorry to hear about it Aussie.. are you going back to the old country for it? SWMBO was in Aberdeen not that long ago.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
dirtleg- I just flag and ignore. It's what most of us adults do.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26505
Didn't people come to America because they would not be persacuted ( dont think i spelled that right) for their religious beliefs. freedom of Choice
Member Since: June 28, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 156
443. IKE
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I find that quite interesting especially with the favorable conditions the wave east of the islands will have in the Caribbean.


NOGAPS takes that to the Bahamas.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey everyone. I found a FANTASTIC article written by Greg Nordstrom from Mississippi State. He has a blog about the weather, and recently, he's been blogging about the tropics. His forecast for Alex was superb, and he discusses how he forecasted for Alex. Very interesting stuff. Perhaps a few of us could use his pointers and try it out with the many invests that seem to be developing recently.

Here's how he forecasted it:
Looking at Asian weather to forecast Tropical Weather in the Atlantic

Also, here's his main blog page:
Link

Let me know what you guys think. Mississippi State are one of the best forecasting schools in the country. Hats off to them.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dakster:
Orca,

Why won't you mention Hebert's Boxes?


Oh oh.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
Reading back a little - I just read your post Aussie... Sorry to hear the sad news.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



too me they look the same


Try a different pair of glasses.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dakster:
Triple Threat in The Tropics, from Tobago to Texas.

And who said this was going to be a slow season?

no one reliable said it was going to be a slow season... it all pointed to a hyper-active season.

Thanks for the Condolence's.
It hasn't really hit me yet that my favorite uncle is gone, and being 1000's of miles away makes it even harder. He's at peace now and has joined my favorite auntie in the after-life.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting msgambler:
Orca, you have cursed us all.


I didn't say it... I went out of my way NOT to say it.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
Orca,

Why won't you mention Hebert's Boxes?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:
Significant improvement and expansion of the vort East of the islands over the past 3 hours.Shear becoming more favourable as well.



3 hours ago




too me they look the same
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
Quoting Orcasystems:
Because I am in a good mood :)
I will not point out what the little red boxes are :)



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Orca, you have cursed us all.
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
Quoting IKE:


It doesn't do anything with the wave approaching the Caribbean islands...neither does the operational GFS.
I find that quite interesting especially with the favorable conditions the wave east of the islands will have in the Caribbean.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
INV/96/L
MARK
17.0N/81.3W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:

Typical Scottish weather then.... I just found out my uncle in Blackpool past away from heart attack. His cleaner found him. Funeral is on Tuesday, then it's my other Uncle and Aunties 50th wedding anniversary on Friday, he was meant to be guest of honor. A sad time in our Clan at the moment.
I am so sorry to hear abouy your uncle Aussie.My thoughts and prayers are with you and your family through this trying time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
430. IKE
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Paralell being rather conservative with development. It didn't develop Alex, and isn't doing anything with 96L. It's starting to remind me of the UKMET.


It doesn't do anything with the wave approaching the Caribbean islands...neither does the operational GFS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Because I am in a good mood :)
I will not point out what the little red boxes are :)



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
AquaK>>I think we should all get banned except Janiel Vargas and let him troll in silence :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Current Weather Conditions:
Point Salines Airport, Grenada
(TGPY) 12-00N 061-47W 7M

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conditions at Jul 04, 2010 - 12:00 PM EDTJul 04, 2010 - 11:00 AM CDTJul 04, 2010 - 10:00 AM MDTJul 04, 2010 - 09:00 AM PDTJul 04, 2010 - 08:00 AM ADTJul 04, 2010 - 07:00 AM HDT
2010.07.04 1600 UTC
Wind from the ESE (110 degrees) at 13 MPH (11 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Temperature 86 F (30 C)
Heat index 99.3 F (37.4 C)
Dew Point 78 F (26 C)
Relative Humidity 79%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.94 in. Hg (1014 hPa)
ob TGPY 041600Z 11011KT 9999 SCT021 BKN260 30/26 Q1014

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

24 Hour Summary
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest Noon (16) Jul 04 86 (30) 78 (26) 29.94 (1014) ESE 13
11 AM (15) Jul 04 87 (31) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) E 13
10 AM (14) Jul 04 87 (31) 77 (25) 29.94 (1014) E 9
9 AM (13) Jul 04 87 (31) 78 (26) 29.94 (1014) E 6
8 AM (12) Jul 04 86 (30) 78 (26) 29.94 (1014) Calm
7 AM (11) Jul 04 82 (28) 77 (25) 29.94 (1014) E 5
6 AM (10) Jul 04 78 (26) 77 (25) 29.91 (1013) ENE 5
5 AM (9) Jul 04 78 (26) 77 (25) 29.91 (1013) E 7
4 AM (8) Jul 04 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) E 7
3 AM (7) Jul 04 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) E 6
2 AM (6) Jul 04 80 (27) 77 (25) 29.91 (1013) ENE 6
1 AM (5) Jul 04 80 (27) 77 (25) 29.91 (1013) E 7
Midnight (4) Jul 04 80 (27) 78 (26) 29.94 (1014) E 9
11 PM (3) Jul 03 80 (27) 78 (26) 29.94 (1014) NNE 6
10 PM (2) Jul 03 80 (27) 80 (27) 29.94 (1014) E 5
9 PM (1) Jul 03 80 (27) 78 (26) 29.94 (1014) E 5
8 PM (0) Jul 03 84 (29) 78 (26) 29.94 (1014) E 7
7 PM (23) Jul 03 84 (29) 78 (26) 29.91 (1013) E 9
6 PM (22) Jul 03 84 (29) 78 (26) 29.91 (1013) E 12
5 PM (21) Jul 03 86 (30) 78 (26) 29.88 (1012) ESE 13
4 PM (20) Jul 03 87 (31) 80 (27) 29.88 (1012) ESE 14
3 PM (19) Jul 03 87 (31) 80 (27) 29.91 (1013) ESE 14
2 PM (18) Jul 03 87 (31) 80 (27) 29.91 (1013) ESE 13
Oldest 1 PM (17) Jul 03 87 (31) 78 (26) 29.94 (1014) E 15
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F(C) Dew Point
F(C) Pressure
Inches(hPa) Wind
(MPH) Weather
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting soflamac:


wee bit of revisionist history here. they took prayer out of school because it does not belong there. Are you so myopic that you can't even acknowledge that other religions exist? And if you can see beyond your nose, which religion's version of prayer would you allow?


All of them..
myself i dont pray, But i do think if you would like to you should be able to without the need to hide it.I seem to have hit a nerve.. was not my intent. I only ment that WE (Americans)have as much of a right to say happy 4th as you have to say anything you want.
You dont hear US telling you (everyone not from the USA) we dont want to hear it do you?

Happy 4th America!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
every time I come on here to lurk a little it's the same thing:

A. The zombie
B. Another yellow circle.

Maybe I oughtta get myself banned so we can have a more peaceful Season™.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26505
AOI/XX/XL
MARK
14.8N/60.1W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:


Pretty impressive convection there
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dakster:
Triple Threat in The Tropics, from Tobago to Texas.

And who said this was going to be a slow season?


That'll fix 'em.
Member Since: August 29, 2009 Posts: 12 Comments: 483
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



we may have 97L vary soon
I was thinking tonight, we might even have it this afternoon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Significant improvement and expansion of the vort East of the islands over the past 3 hours.Shear becoming more favourable as well.



3 hours ago

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Triple Threat in The Tropics, from Tobago to Texas.

And who said this was going to be a slow season?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Our hearts and prayers go out to you and your family Aussie
Member Since: June 28, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 156
Quoting Orcasystems:


ROFLMAO... Welcome to walmart :)

Sunglasses Were Invented in China

Hehe. Okay. But we made them mainstream and available to everybody, then...

;-)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
yes kman your right.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting texascoastres:
where has it ever been stated that the only praying allowed was to be christainity. I grew up to believe that prayer was your way of of connection with your religion regardless of what faith.


Prayer is a form of communication. Either with your subjective god, or with weather models.
Member Since: August 29, 2009 Posts: 12 Comments: 483
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:



we may have 97L vary soon
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
that may be our next yellow shorly kman


I think it will be. My estimate was for Invest status within 12 hours of this morning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
96 hours out. Alex repeat with 96L continues to be predicted by the ECMWF. ECMWF nailed Alex well in advance.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:

Typical Scottish weather then.... I just found out my uncle in Blackpool past away from heart attack. His cleaner found him. Funeral is on Tuesday, then it's my other Uncle and Aunties 50th wedding anniversary on Friday, he was meant to be guest of honor. A sad time in our Clan at the moment.
Condolences.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
that may be our next yellow shorly kman
Agreed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:
Because we invented your sunglasses...


ROFLMAO... Welcome to walmart :)

Sunglasses Were Invented in China
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
Quoting kmanislander:
15 N 59 W

This wave is really starting to amplify.

that may be our next yellow shorly kman
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hhunter:
yes kman and that is one that bares great attention by you and yours.


Agreed. That is the one I have been saying is the real threat not just for us but the SE US potentially.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
402. JRRP
Quoting kmanislander:
15 N 59 W

This wave is really starting to amplify.


yea but you know that is North to South
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
where has it ever been stated that the only praying allowed was to be christainity. I grew up to believe that prayer was your way of of connection with your religion regardless of what faith.
Member Since: June 28, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 156

Viewing: 451 - 401

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
28 °F
Overcast