A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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501. IKE
12Z NOGAPS through 180 hours.
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Quoting LightningCharmer:
I was not offending you. There was a blogger on here years ago that created an alternative to the Herbert Box, named the, "Stupid Circle." Your question is welcome. The Herbert Box is more a probability exercise. Sorry for the misunderstanding if it was directed at me.
Anybody seen the graphic for it recently? That was one of our better forecasting tools.... lol
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96L will probably be 30% max on the next TWO IMO. Should see a circle east of the Antilles also. Probably a yellow 10% one.
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Quoting msgambler:
Ignore it granny. not worth your time.
here is your anwser

The Hebert Box was "discovered" in the late 1970s by Paul Hebert (pictured at left). This former NWS & NHC forecaster found many major Hurricanes that hit South Florida had to first pass through these boxes. The first box is located east of Puerto Rico and the second box is located over the Cayman Islands. Every Major Hurricane that passed through Box 2 late in the year, hit the Florida Peninsula prior to 1950. Hebert says that a Hurricane does not have to pass through these boxes to hit, but if they do "you better pay attention". The 1935 Labor day Hurricane that devastated the Florida Keys developed west of this box and Hurricane Andrew passed NE of this box, so there are exceptions to the rule.
This image shows the two Hebert boxes. If Floridians want an indication of a possible hit they need to keep an eye on any hurricane that passes through these boxes. Nearly every major Hurricane that hit S Florida since 1900 passed through these boxes. When major Hurricanes miss these boxes,they virtually always miss South Florida. If a major Hurricane moves into these boxes South Florida really needs to watch out. These boxes approx 335 miles x 335 miles includes the Virgin Islands but not Puerto Rico. The pattern has proven accurate for 9 out of 10 storms storms that developed & hit Dade,Broward & Palm Bch Counties. The following is a list showing Hurricanes that passed through these Boxes,starting with Box #1.


1950 Baker--Alabama....1950 Dog--out to sea....1951 Charlie--Yucatan/Mexico....1952 Baker-- out to sea....1953 Carol--Nova scotia....1954 ALice--Leeward isl out to sea....1955 Connie--N Carolina....1955 Ione--N Carolina....1956 Betsy--N Antilles, PR,Bahamas....1958 Fifi--out to sea....1958 Ilsa--out to sea....1960 DonnaN Antilles,Bahamas,Fla,east seaboard....1963 Edith--windward isl,PR,Hispaniola....1964 Cleo--N Antilles,Hispaniola,Haiti,Cuba,Fla....1966 Faith--N Antilles....1966 Inez--N Antilles,Hispaniola,Haiti,Cuba,Bahamas,Fla,Yucatan,Mex....1967Beulah--Hispaniola,Yucata,S Texas....1975 Eloise--Hispaniola,Fla panhandle....1979 David--Antilles,Hispaniola,Haiti,Fla,Ga,Sc....1984 Klaus--out to sea....1985 Gloria--NE U.S....1989 dean--Bermuda,Newfoundland....1989 Hugo--N Antilles,PR,SC....1990 Klaus-- out to sea....1995 Luis--N Antilles,New foundland....1995 Marilyn--N antilles,VI.PR....1996 Bertha--N antilles,VI,PR,N carolina....1996 Fran--N Carolina....1996 Hortense--PR,Nova scotia....1997 Erika--out to sea....1998 Georges--N antilles,VI,PR,Hispaniola,Haiti,Cuba,Keys,mississippi....1999 Jose--N antilles,VI....1999 Lenny--N antilles....2000 Debby--n antilles,VI,Hispaniola....2004 FrancesBahamas,Treasure coast,Fla....2008 Omar VI.....




BOX #2 (since 1950)
1951 Item Cayman isl,Cuba....1952 FoxCaymans,Cuba,Bahamas....1961 HattieBelize....1981 KatrinaCuba,Bahamas....1988 GilbertYucatan,mexico....1995 RoxanneYucatan....1998 MitchHonduras....2001 irisBelize....2001 MichelleCuba,Bahamas....2004 Charley W cuba,Fla....2005 EmilyYucatan,Mexico....2005 WilmaYucatan,S Fla....2006 Dean Yucatan....


So what does all this mean when a Hurricane passes or develops in the Hebert Box east of Puerto Rico since 1950?
1)N Carolina has as much of a chance to get hit as Florida.
2)20.58% or most go out to sea without hitting land.
3)Only 8.82% make it into the Gulf of Mexico when they pass through the box as a hurricane.
4)Puerto Rico will get hit 20.58% of the time (the highest outside of n Antilles).

What about Box #2,Hurricanes developing or moving through after Oct 1st since 1950?
Cuba & the Bahamas are at highest risk late in the season.

To wrap things up, two significant Hurricanes that hit South Fla did not pass through this box, Andrew 1992, and Betsy 1965!. Data may be slightly off because these boxes were based on data going back to 1900. We chose named storms since 1950 for recognition purposes.

from Hurricanecity.com
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497. IKE
Quoting Hurricanes101:
Ike never said he believed it, he was just reporting what it said

There you go again trying to start things; GO AWAY and hopefully for good this time





Thanks. I was just reporting it's lack of systems. After reading Crownweather's thoughts, I thought the GFS(both), might do something with the approaching eastern Caribbean wave..but it didn't.
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Thank you msgambler.I am really not very knowledgeable when it comes to all this weather stuff.I have heard of the Herbert Boxes but never new its meaning.
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I say we may have 97 if it can get its act together. All in all, what I can say is that system is totally driving us nuts here in South Florida. So much for fireworks
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Even MORE laughable!!!!!Link
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
Why would you say that to me?I am new at this weather stuff.If I offended you then I am sorry.
I was not offending you. There was a blogger on here years ago that created an alternative to the Herbert Box, named the, "Stupid Circle." Your question is welcome. The Herbert Box is more a probability exercise. Sorry for the misunderstanding if it was directed at me.
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Quoting Inactivity:
So we could see another yellow circle at 2:00PM,including 96L could become an orange circle,Right?
My opinion:

95L - Near 0% chance.
96L - 40% chance.
Antilles AOI - 20%.

For the next 48 hours.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Interesting "U" structure 96L is displaying to us. Usually you'll get those voids of convection when a system is intruded with dry air, don't know what's 96L's problem.



Land interaction to west and south of the system.
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
Why would you say that to me?I am new at this weather stuff.If I offended you then I am sorry.
Ignore it granny. not worth your time.
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
Ike never said he believed it, he was just reporting what it said

There you go again trying to start things; GO AWAY and hopefully for good this time



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Interesting "U" structure 96L is displaying to us. Usually you'll get those voids of convection when a system is intruded with dry air, don't know what's 96L's problem.

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So we could see another yellow circle at 2:00PM,including 96L could become an orange circle,Right?
Member Since: June 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 264
Quoting kmanislander:


It's best if you actually go the map and toggle between the current vort and -3 hours ago. That shows it better.



ok
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
Quoting AussieStorm:
Thanks for the Condolence's.
I better get off to bed, even though I don't feel like sleeping, i need to get some.
Enjoy your countries big day, Stay safe, get prepared if you have not.
Goodnight
Peace out.


have a good sleep aussie
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Welcome to the Weather Underground, now following Invest 96L. Everyone tighten those safety harnesses and be prepared for another rough ride, now through landfall.

Looks like a TC Alex replay..replay..replay. I sure pray & hope that there is no more serious flooding in the NW Mexico area, near Monterrey. The LAST thing they need is another 16+ inches of rain.
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Why would you say that to me?I am new at this weather stuff.If I offended you then I am sorry.
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Out for now
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
The 2010 season would be at 0/0/0 if it followed what GFS had at that time.
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
I know this may sound ignorant;But what is the Herbert Box?


This is leading to the "Stupid Circle!" I'll leave the explanation to others.
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Good night Aussie. Get some rest.
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
Easier to just point you to the Wiki:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hebert_Box

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from wikipedia:

An Hebert Box (pronounced AY-bear, also known as Hebert's Box) is one of two regions of the tropical Atlantic Ocean that are useful as predictors of hurricanes that will strike South Florida, USA. They are named for former National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center forecaster Paul Hebert, who observed in the late 1970s that most strong hurricanes (characterized as those with winds exceeding 110 miles per hour (177 km/h)) which had struck South Florida since 1900 had also passed through one of these two small 335-mile-by-335-mile (517-km-by-517-km) square geographic regions.[1]
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Thanks for the Condolence's.
I better get off to bed, even though I don't feel like sleeping, i need to get some.
Enjoy your countries big day, Stay safe, get prepared if you have not.
Goodnight
Peace out.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Typical Scottish weather then.... I just found out my uncle in Blackpool past away from heart attack. His cleaner found him. Funeral is on Tuesday, then it's my other Uncle and Aunties 50th wedding anniversary on Friday, he was meant to be guest of honor. A sad time in our Clan at the moment.

My condolences for you and your family. Sorry to hear about the passing of your Uncle. May God be with you all and give you strength.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
INV/96/L
MARK
17.0N/81.3W


Looks like the convection is starting to wrap 96L Needs a bit more to the north west...
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less than an hour till 25 TWO'S get posted lets see what NHC does they may wait for 12 full hours of convective activty before they tag a 97l off the islands
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Cayman's getting rained on hard from 96L.

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Quoting IKE:
Both versions of the GFS...a yawner through July 20th.


UKMET?
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Quoting Tazmanian:



lol


It's best if you actually go the map and toggle between the current vort and -3 hours ago. That shows it better.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Quoting kmanislander:


Try a different pair of glasses.



lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
lol Drak, well with the amount of activity that we are seeing with the Cape Verde waves, one can understand that.
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Quoting Drakoen:
The NOGAPS must have some type of fetish for the southern Caribbean; it is almost always developing storms down there.
LMAO.
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Quoting StadiumEffect:
For the wave approaching the eastern islands...what movement does the steering pattern favor for the next few days? It's in what I call that "sweet spot." Many systems which enter the Caribbean at that latitude often pose a threat for us here.


Another "sweet spot" or "hot spot" is S. of Bermuda/east of Fl. A junkyard for subtropical storms left over from old fronts or TUTT signatures.
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Quoting StadiumEffect:
For the wave approaching the eastern islands...what movement does the steering pattern favor for the next few days? It's in what I call that "sweet spot." Many systems which enter the Caribbean at that latitude often pose a threat for us here.
PSU e-WALL forecasted steering
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The NOGAPS must have some type of fetish for the southern Caribbean; it is almost always developing storms down there.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30833
458. IKE
Both versions of the GFS...a yawner through July 20th.
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I know this may sound ignorant;But what is the Herbert Box?
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Sorry to hear about it Aussie.. are you going back to the old country for it? SWMBO was in Aberdeen not that long ago.

At the moment I am not able to travel due to my back injury, I hope to get there in the next few years to pay my respect.
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Quoting IKE:


NOGAPS takes that to the Bahamas.
That seems like a safe bet considering forecasted steering currents. Link: PSU e-WALL forecasted steering
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Quoting HyDrO420:


All of them..
myself i dont pray, But i do think if you would like to you should be able to without the need to hide it.I seem to have hit a nerve.. was not my intent. I only ment that WE (Americans)have as much of a right to say happy 4th as you have to say anything you want.
You dont hear US telling you (everyone not from the USA) we dont want to hear it do you?

Happy 4th America!!!!!!!!!!


Happy 4th right back at you. And no, no nerve hit here, perhaps someone else maybe. I do agree with you that if one wants to do it (pray) they should be able to (openly and all)...unfortunately with most individuals and organisations in this area of existence, it's all in or all out. Tolerance is not in their vocabulary. Peace and love to all...be safe.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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