A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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5001. aquak9
spathy- we're not getting any rain here for probably a week. Storm supplies? well we were gonna crank up the genny but we forgot.

beef jerky, instant coffee, toilet paper.

And a rabies shot.
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5000. xcool
jaevortex so true.
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4999. Patrap
Near Current Image




5 years ago almost to the Hour



My point the last 24 hours..





Mmmmmmmm,..L/o ribs
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4998. Drakoen
While 96L is organizing convection it has yet to acquire a closed surface low. Wind reports south of the system are out of the east.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30602
Quoting biloxidaisy:
Wow... lots of tension here tonight... hate to see it in another month. Deep breath everyone.. deep breath...


lol, daisy, for sure... I'm really leaving now for some seafood...BBL
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I really wish half you guys would get out of this blog and stop bickering like school kids so I can get on with reading good post from good informed WU bloggers. I really don't care who agrees with who or who put who on ignore. Seriously let's get on learning about the weather instead of learning about who's ignore list is longer and who's not talking to whom today. You all sound like a bunch of married couples bickering.
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4995. alfabob
4 hours ago I stated that 96L was around 16N-21N; 84W-86W. Seems to be centered around 20 N; 86W now. Hard to tell with the size of the thing but tracking its previous movements leads me to believe that this is correct. Also seems to be directed 22.5 degrees west of north. Not to take any attention away from 95L, but this is not looking good.
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Quoting msgambler:
POOF

Wow, you "poof" people who agrees with you...to many "poof" happy people here.
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Quoting Ossqss:


Yup, kinda like a anomalotropicasaurousmaximus Rex on the move :)


Oh god...I can see JFV using that nick next time.
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hello everyone ,pressure dropping rather quickly here in morgan city hope it moves on shore before it gets to windy,with all that oil offshore wouldn't be pretty
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Quoting Kristina40:


He was actually agreeing with you msgambler. I think you misread him. He has been following 95L as well.


Thanks, Kristina. And btwntx08 as well.
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4990. Asta
re:4974. atmosweather:
It is going to rain. probably alot.. And just a few inches at the wrong time in an already saturated S.E. LA environment can cause street flooding in some areas.
I just cautioned my elderly parents not to try and venture out and get caught in it until this system overwith...
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Wow... lots of tension here tonight... hate to see it in another month. Deep breath everyone.. deep breath...
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Quoting Kristina40:


He was actually agreeing with you msgambler. I think you misread him. He has been following 95L as well.
You are correct Kristina, I misread it. Sorry Robert.
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
4987. Ossqss
Quoting hydrus:
Kinda strange watching the thunderstorms move from south to north this time of year.


Yup, kinda like a anomalotropicasaurousmaximus Rex on the move :)
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Tar balls on Bolivar at galveston, they have tested it and it is a match to the dna of the gulf oil spill
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4983. Hhunter
looks like 96L is pulling it together like i thought it would by pulling the mid and low level center together.
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Quoting msgambler:
POOF


poof???

I'm on your side. I was one of the ones arguing that we needed to watch 95L. And you poof me?
WOW!
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4981. palmpt
Quoting Bradenton:


Well said. Many here need an ego check.

But storm should stay above the fray.
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95L should remind the army of amateur oil skimmers at the Deepwater Horizon site that they are highly unlikely to get a 5-day notice to evacuate for a threatening cyclone. I hope they develop a better plan than they seem to have now!
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Quoting msgambler:
POOF


He was actually agreeing with you msgambler. I think you misread him. He has been following 95L as well.
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Quoting msgambler:
POOF

that wasnt a reason for that to be poof
Member Since: July 13, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
4977. Asta
Anyone have a recommended precipitation forecast map for S.E.LA??
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Quoting LightningCharmer:
I enjoy the debate. Call me crazy. I just don't enjoy when the discussion is disrespectful, threatening, or uses inappropriate language. Children and adults can learn quite a bit by arguing as long as they don't let their emotions and egos get in the way.


Well said. Many here need an ego check.
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Thanks for your input Pops.
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Other than the fact that 95L has had very little deep convection near its COC even today when it became more defined, and is still seemingly at the base of a warm front based on the 18z HPC surface obs...the other thing is, what was the point of the NHC classifying the chances at 60% when the system is about to make landfall???...Why not just designate it as a TD/TS right then and there if they thought it had become significantly better organized and was producing 30 kt winds? And if they weren't thinking about upgrading it to a tropical cyclone...why would they post a 60% number in the first place 3 hours after they posted a near 0% chance?

Just trying to get my brain around this...
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Quoting RobertM320:


msgambler, its not worth our breath. But, just let 96L become a Cat 2 heading for Corpus Christi, and we ignore it and discuss a wave in the CATL. They'd go nuts. No respect for the Gulf Coast.

Time for me to take a break and go get some freah Gulf seafood. Seems no one else around the country wants any.
POOF
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
Storm,so if 96L gets it s act together and strengthens it COULD go more northerly than predicted and I know nothing is etched in stone.
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Quoting Levi32:


They technically could but would be reluctant to. They have classified a storm over Africa before, before it came off into the Atlantic.


Do you know what storm that was?
Member Since: June 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 264
Seeing a nice tight circulation with 95L, as small as Marco in 2008. Interesting little storm, will probably NOT get designated at all since it's moving on shore NOW. ;)

96L looks better this evening,needs more organization tonight.
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Quoting msgambler:
We are still getting blasted for talking about 95L. It seems we can only talk about the systems they want to talk about .


msgambler, its not worth our breath. But, just let 96L become a Cat 2 heading for Corpus Christi, and we ignore it and discuss a wave in the CATL. They'd go nuts. No respect for the Gulf Coast.

Time for me to take a break and go get some freah Gulf seafood. Seems no one else around the country wants any.
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Which support my idea look at comment #4930
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4967. aquak9
spathy I already have you on ignore

hahahahaha
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Quoting spathy:

Bingo and thank you!


People have forgotten how to debate for the most part, they take everything personally...Although here I have seen some very fine debates from some very learned people.
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Quoting NOLALawyer:
95L may not be a "real" tropical system, but being under it all day, it has that "funny vibe" feeling to it that comes with tropical systems. I have been in enough to know that feeling. It is easy to discount it from afar, when it is on top of your head, it is a different matter entirely. Bravo to guys like Patrap that kept this in focus today.


Exactly. I likened it to the feeling before a Tornado up in the Midwest.
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Quoting xcool:
btwntx08 i will.

thx
Member Since: July 13, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
4962. Drakoen
Quoting TerraNova:

So then judging by satellite imagery movement would have to be WNW to NW which would have the cyclone crossing the northern Yucatan. This is the result of a center relocation, right? Interestingly the 18z BAM models initiate further south than the rest of the guidance.


Yes
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30602
I've gotta run now but will come back later.

BFN
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15846
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Don't see anything from the ATCF so far on a renumber.




when do they next update any one no?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115347
95L may not be a "real" tropical system, but being under it all day, it has that "funny vibe" feeling to it that comes with tropical systems. I have been in enough to know that feeling. It is easy to discount it from afar, when it is on top of your head, it is a different matter entirely. Bravo to guys like Patrap that kept this in focus today.
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Don't see anything from the ATCF so far on a renumber.
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95L still trying to spin up a "small" area of convection.



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Quoting Drakoen:


Low level. Go to the CIMSS 96L page and then check vis 1km and check the surface, ship, and buoy observations.

So then judging by satellite imagery movement would have to be WNW to NW which would have the cyclone crossing the northern Yucatan. This is the result of a center relocation, right? Interestingly the 18z BAM models initiate further south than the rest of the guidance.
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Quoting Patrap:
So much for "Forget 95L"

pfffth

Im second guessing a decision I made 2 Mths ago..In a BIG way.


How bout dat 96L though?



LOL





Much more Semitic
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4951. hydrus
Quoting StormW:


It's open on the west side.
Do you think there was ever a closed low with 95L?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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