Gulf of Mexico disturbance 95L worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:02 PM GMT on July 03, 2010

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A cold front that pushed off the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf Coast has stalled out over the waters immediately offshore. An area of low pressure, Invest 95L, has developed in the Gulf of Mexico, about 100 miles southeast of the Deepwater Horizon oil disaster. Satellite loops show that this low does have a broad surface circulation, but heavy thunderstorm activity is being limited by 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. Water Vapor satellite loops show that 95L is embedded in a large region of dry air associated with an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system, and this dry air will hinder 95L's development. The cold, dry air associated with this upper-level low is giving 95L a subtropical appearance, with the main heavy thunderstorm activity (to the south) located well away from the center of circulation. NHC is giving 95L a 20% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical depression by 2pm Monday. Wind shear is forecast to be in the 20 - 30 knot range Sunday through Monday, so any development of 95L should be slow. The disturbance is moving west at about 10 - 15 mph, and a general westward motion towards Texas should continue through Monday. None of the reliable computer models develop 95L into a depression. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 95L on Sunday, if necessary.

Elsewhere in the tropics, we should keep an eye on the region to the east of South Carolina for possible development, as well as the western Caribbean. None of the reliable models is showing a tropical storm developing in the Atlantic over the coming week, though.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 95L.

Next post
I am on vacation for the coming week, and Dr. Rob Carver will be handling most or all of the blogging duties July 5 - July 12. One of us will be posting on July 4 if there is a major development to report.

Jeff Masters

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1604. winter123
6:40 PM GMT on July 05, 2010
wow so close but out of time.
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1797
1603. stillwaiting
1:26 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
ahhhhh,fully expected a new born 96L this morning!!!,Happy fourth of July everyone!!!!!!,I'm expecting 96L to impact SWFL's weather mid-late week,its allready been one soggy weekend looks like the moisture train is going to be aimed at my area today as well...
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
1602. homelesswanderer
12:48 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
lol new blog.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
1601. mikatnight
12:39 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Good morning everyone. This shot is from the lantana bridge taken a few minutes ago. They normally launch the fireworks from a barge but this year they will b launching from on shore due to economic reasons. Unfortunately the rain chance is at 70 percent though were hoping for a break come showtime.



Happy 4th of July! Go USA!
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
1599. superpete
12:32 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting aquak9:
reading back, I see some folks did mention the Dean/Felix resemblance, path only.

Could see a TD within 24 hours, I suppose.
Good morning.Dean was a long-track CV system,Felix developed just NE of Trinidad, but this invest certainly does bear close watching,especially if it heads into the GOM/very heavy rain & gusty wind here in Grand Cayman last night
Member Since: October 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 684
1598. Huracaneer
12:23 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
The Tampa Bay Area is already looking pretty tropical. Continuous rain with minimal thunder, almost no wind and at least in Pinellas County some flooding. One thing that always puzzles me is when you have two steering currents, like for 96L, one going NE and the other NW, which will the system take? Anyone who knows please comment on this.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 317
1597. earthlydragonfly
12:22 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Good morning.... I was looking at some of the different imagery... Is my assumption correct that a majority of the convection is found the the west of 96L and just received a flare up to the south of the COC? I use coc sparingly since I'm not sure if the circulation is closed as of yet...

Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1683
1596. itrackstorms
12:20 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Here's an article describing long term averages for tropical activity in July from TWC...

Typical July Atlantic Tropical Activity

I have a feeling this July may be Atypical
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 152
1594. aquak9
12:18 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
reading back, I see some folks did mention the Dean/Felix resemblance, path only.

Could see a TD within 24 hours, I suppose.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 26047
1593. msgambler
12:11 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
morning Aqua
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
1592. AussieStorm
12:10 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
96L is popping good.


Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15938
1591. WxLogic
12:08 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Good Morning...
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4977
1589. aquak9
12:01 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
Terra- good morning- someone posted a TCHP map last night, looked like it had recovered pretty quickly.
But I like yours better.

Quick look-over of 96L, rainbow...I don't see an LLC yet. Mid and upper might be better stacked but they ain't aligned yet.

Clusterstorms poopin' up here and there, I don't think it's decided yet where to get it's feet wet at.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 26047
1588. alaina1085
11:59 AM GMT on July 04, 2010
Morning guys and gals!

Alot of you called for the new invest and the NHC heard! LOL.

Coffee time!!!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
1587. stormwatcherCI
11:56 AM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting aquak9:
g'morning all.

Ike, granny, Aussie, CI, gambler...et al...

lifts coffee cup, nods head.
Good morning to you too.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
1586. TerraNova
11:56 AM GMT on July 04, 2010
Assuming this data isn't inaccurate TCHP has dropped dramatically. Weird...I don't think Alex was strong enough to cause that much of a drop. Can anyone clarify on this?


June 26:


July 2 (latest image):
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4063
1585. AussieStorm
11:54 AM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting aquak9:
g'morning all.

Ike, granny, Aussie, CI, gambler...et al...

lifts coffee cup, nods head.

lifts tea mug... nods back. Mornin'
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15938
1584. AussieStorm
11:53 AM GMT on July 04, 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS

AND SATELLITE IMAGERY

THROUGH 1015 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 8N40W TO 3N42W DRIFTING W. WAVE
IS LOW AMPLITUDE AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. WEAK CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 36W-39W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 17N51W INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
TO 7N60W MOVING N 15-10 KT. WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THE AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE
MAXIMUM AS EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90
NM SE OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 13N AND WITHIN 150 NM NW OF THE
ENTIRE WAVE AXIS TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 13N76W TO 17N80W
WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 75W-85W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 11N14W 7N23W 6N33W 8N42W 6N54W
7N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N TO THE
ITCZ E OF 20W TO JUST INLAND OVER W AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
46W-49W...AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 24W-27W...WITH
CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA S OF 5N TO THE EQUATOR.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A NARROWING HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM MEXICO N
ACROSS TEXAS TO OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES COVERING THE W
GULF W OF A LINE FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S
MEXICO NEAR VERA CRUZ. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE
US INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE E GULF WITH A SHORTWAVE
EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PANAMA CITY SW TO NEAR
23N92W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING...AT 0900 UTC...A 1011
MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 27N90W AND A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
ACROSS FLORIDA FROM THE W ATLC NEAR TAMPA ALONG 29N86W TO THE
1011 MB LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
26N-30N E OF 90W TO JUST INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF
26N E OF 88W TO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA STRAITS. THE
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BETWEEN 94W-96W. LINES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE STREAMING INLAND OVER THE NW GULF OF W LOUISIANA AND E TEXAS
COVERING THE NW GULF WATERS N OF 26N W OF 90W. REMAINDER OF THE
GULF IS UNDER AN ABUNDANCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N80W
DOMINATES THE AREA W OF 68W WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED
IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN. THE MOST DOMINATE
SURFACE FEATURE IS THE TROPICAL WAVE. THERE IS ABUNDANCE OF DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S
OF 12N W OF 76W TO INLAND OVER W PANAMA TO NICARAGUA. THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE
AIR...THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPS OVER THE N PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA TO NEAR 26N W OF 60W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
AREA NEAR 32N59W SW TO 28N63W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG
28N76W THEN ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
23N-31N W OF 73W TO THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A WEAKENING
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N46W
SW TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 25N51W TO 20N56W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS
OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF
MOROCCO ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO A SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR
17N34W TO NEAR 10N37W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE TROPICS
NEAR 14N52W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING E TO OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN AND ENHANCING THE TILT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE JUST TO
THE W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC E OF 55W
ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH JUST NE OF THE AZORES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15938
1583. aquak9
11:52 AM GMT on July 04, 2010
g'morning all.

Ike, granny, Aussie, CI, gambler...et al...

lifts coffee cup, nods head.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 26047
1581. AussieStorm
11:45 AM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting IKE:


I think it's the same system....it's just showing us which track is Noel...with other systems on that same track it makes it hard to tell.

The Hurricane Noel that starts at the CV is Melissa. Someone miss labeled it.


Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15938
1580. msgambler
11:43 AM GMT on July 04, 2010
pretty close Aussie. It is right up the Bay
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
1579. PlashIslandResident
11:43 AM GMT on July 04, 2010
And I am right across the Bay at the mouth of the Bon Secour River. Good Morning!
Member Since: November 6, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 13
1578. IKE
11:43 AM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting AussieStorm:

IKE, notice there is 2 Noel's??? whats with that?


I think it's the same system....it's just showing us which track is Noel...with other systems on that same track it makes it hard to tell.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1577. stormwatcherCI
11:42 AM GMT on July 04, 2010
Sorry, tried to post a pic but it won't work.

East End, Grand Cayman 7:40 am EST July 4, 2010
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
1576. GainesvilleGator
11:42 AM GMT on July 04, 2010
The way 96L is looking, we may get an orange circle from the NHC by the 5:00 PM advisory.
Member Since: September 11, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 745
1575. AussieStorm
11:41 AM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting IKE:


The way the pattern is right now, quite a few. I was thinking earlier, this year reminds me of 2007 in the Atlantic.....





IKE, notice there is 2 Noel's??? whats with that?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15938
1574. IKE
11:40 AM GMT on July 04, 2010
Copy and paste....


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 125 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND DRY AIR IN THE MID- AND
UPPER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE CURRENTLY INHIBITING
DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES
INLAND LATER TODAY OR MONDAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1573. AussieStorm
11:38 AM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting msgambler:
No sir. I live between I-10 and Dauphin Island, AL on Mobile Bay. Right at the mouth of Fowl River. It is about 13 miles North of Dauphin Island

you must be near Goat Island?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15938
1572. stormwatcherCI
11:37 AM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting AussieStorm:
How many of these will we see in the coming months?
I pray for none but I know that is asking for too much.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
1571. IKE
11:36 AM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting AussieStorm:
How many of these will we see in the coming months?


The way the pattern is right now, quite a few. I was thinking earlier, this year reminds me of 2007 in the Atlantic.....




Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1570. timkim
11:35 AM GMT on July 04, 2010
Models or not, because we are in the (from El Nino to La Nina) change, we are in for a very active tropical weather pattern in the gulf of mexico, I call this weather phenomena "THE CHANGE"
and with the oil slicks we should see a lot of airborne oil or, oil slapping up on homes and condos in the gulf this season...
Member Since: October 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2
1569. msgambler
11:33 AM GMT on July 04, 2010
No sir. I live between I-10 and Dauphin Island, AL on Mobile Bay. Right at the mouth of Fowl River. It is about 13 miles North of Dauphin Island
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
1568. AussieStorm
11:33 AM GMT on July 04, 2010
How many of these will we see in the coming months?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15938
1567. AussieStorm
11:31 AM GMT on July 04, 2010
Dauphin Island - East End


Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15938
1566. AussieStorm
11:29 AM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting jasoniscoolman09:




Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15938
1565. AussieStorm
11:28 AM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting msgambler:
Fowl River

Flow River Alabama?
You live near I10 or 90?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15938
1563. msgambler
11:25 AM GMT on July 04, 2010
Good monring Aussie...LOL
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1562. AussieStorm
11:24 AM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting msgambler:
Morning granny, Ike, stormwatcher, and I know Storm already had to go get right with Jesus..LOL, and everybody else I may have missed. Hope your day is looking as nice as mine is out my window this morning.

Good Evening.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15938
1561. msgambler
11:17 AM GMT on July 04, 2010
hagd granny
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
1560. mrsalagranny
11:16 AM GMT on July 04, 2010
Gotta go for now bbl on this afternoon.Have a Happy 4th of July everyone!!!!!!!And mostly a Blessed Day.
Member Since: June 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 853
1559. msgambler
11:15 AM GMT on July 04, 2010
yeah I hope it stays cloudy. I need to mow the grass but I don't have enough beer for a sunny day of mowing. Plus we need some rain.
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
1558. mrsalagranny
11:13 AM GMT on July 04, 2010
I live in Semmes.It is a lil cloudy this way.But other than that, beautiful day!
Member Since: June 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 853
1557. msgambler
11:11 AM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting mrsalagranny:
Good morning msgambler.Where do you live?
Fowl River
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
1556. stormwatcherCI
11:10 AM GMT on July 04, 2010
Quoting msgambler:
Morning granny, Ike, stormwatcher, and I know Storm already had to go get right with Jesus..LOL, and everybody else I may have missed. Hope your day is looking as nice as mine is out my window this morning.
Overcast, rainy and windy here but okay all the same.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
1555. mrsalagranny
11:10 AM GMT on July 04, 2010
Good morning msgambler.Where do you live?
Member Since: June 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 853
1554. msgambler
11:09 AM GMT on July 04, 2010
Morning granny, Ike, stormwatcher, and I know Storm already had to go get right with Jesus..LOL, and everybody else I may have missed. Hope your day is looking as nice as mine is out my window this morning.
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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