Gulf of Mexico disturbance 95L worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:02 PM GMT on July 03, 2010

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A cold front that pushed off the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf Coast has stalled out over the waters immediately offshore. An area of low pressure, Invest 95L, has developed in the Gulf of Mexico, about 100 miles southeast of the Deepwater Horizon oil disaster. Satellite loops show that this low does have a broad surface circulation, but heavy thunderstorm activity is being limited by 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. Water Vapor satellite loops show that 95L is embedded in a large region of dry air associated with an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system, and this dry air will hinder 95L's development. The cold, dry air associated with this upper-level low is giving 95L a subtropical appearance, with the main heavy thunderstorm activity (to the south) located well away from the center of circulation. NHC is giving 95L a 20% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical depression by 2pm Monday. Wind shear is forecast to be in the 20 - 30 knot range Sunday through Monday, so any development of 95L should be slow. The disturbance is moving west at about 10 - 15 mph, and a general westward motion towards Texas should continue through Monday. None of the reliable computer models develop 95L into a depression. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 95L on Sunday, if necessary.

Elsewhere in the tropics, we should keep an eye on the region to the east of South Carolina for possible development, as well as the western Caribbean. None of the reliable models is showing a tropical storm developing in the Atlantic over the coming week, though.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 95L.

Next post
I am on vacation for the coming week, and Dr. Rob Carver will be handling most or all of the blogging duties July 5 - July 12. One of us will be posting on July 4 if there is a major development to report.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting CJC111:
Thanks Progster. Was looking there but couldn't find record totals for a year. I will dig a little further. The reason I was asking is because Nashville has already had record rains for 1 day, 2 days, and 1 month. We are about 15 inches short of the yearly average of 48 and was curious about the record for 1 year. Will continue to try to find it. Thanks again.


Try this:

Link
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1202. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15624
Happy fourth of july everyone!
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Quoting beell:


I hate to even bring it up...but 95L could leave a little non-spurious weakness in the ridge across the west central gulf coast.


Yeah. There's also this. The 12z run of the steering current loops on PSU's e-wall had two solutions: an equatorial track (GFS), and a poleward track (CMC). It's obviously impossible to favor either scenario at the moment, as both are plausible. But the weaker ridging that the CMC sees might be coming, in part, from 95L.
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1199. CJC111
Thanks Progster. Was looking there but couldn't find record totals for a year. I will dig a little further. The reason I was asking is because Nashville has already had record rains for 1 day, 2 days, and 1 month. We are about 15 inches short of the yearly average of 48 and was curious about the record for 1 year. Will continue to try to find it. Thanks again.
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Checked on the tropics tonight, and boy are they getting more interesting then the tropics this afternoon. That Caribbean AOI right now has the best shot of becoming our next tropical cyclone. I would have said that about 95L this afternoon, but the Caribbean AOI has a much favorable environment over it than 95L as a cut-off upper low has developed over 95L tonight.

In the spirit of the 4th of July, did you know that a hurricane helped keep the US independence in the War of 1812 (see my blog post on it)?

I have also invited anyone who experience Hurricane Alex to write their stories in the comments of my blog, trying to see any stories media didn't capture.
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1197. beell
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'd imagine that if anything, it would be the other way around. That is, 96L would influence 95L, obviously in a negative manner. This is because 96L should develop faster. Much faster.


I hate to even bring it up...but 95L could leave a little non-spurious weakness in the ridge across the west central gulf coast.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I'd imagine that if anything, it would be the other way around. That is, 96L would influence 95L, obviously in a negative manner. This is because 96L should develop faster. Much faster.
Thanks for the info! Please forgive me if my questions seem amateurish, I have been lurking on here since 2005, post every once in awhile, but I am a long ways off from having the knowledge of most on here. But I have learned a lot from what I knew before finding this blog.
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Quoting stillwaiting:
I'm expecting 96L SW of Jamaica when I wake up tomorrow morning,goodnight and happy fourth of july everyone!!!:)


Happy Independence Day!
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Good evening/good morning everyone. Compliments of the "Ghost of Hurricane Alex" & a weird early-summer cold front washing out over our area has given Arlington, TX 4.70" of rain from 6/28-7/3/10. This is awesome, thank God we finally received good rains!
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Quoting stillwaiting:
I'm expecting 96L SW of Jamaica when I wake up tomorrow morning,goodnight and happy fourth of july everyone!!!:)


i 2nd that
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1192. xcool
cmc every run will change
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15624
I'm expecting 96L SW of Jamaica when I wake up tomorrow morning,goodnight and happy fourth of july everyone!!!:)
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Quoting CJC111:
Just a quick question if anyone knows. I'm looking to find highest rainfall totals by city for a 1 year period. Does anyone know where I might be able to find that? P.S. A pay for blog tends to drive away a great many people and not pay nearly as well as the advertisements. I'm betting that paying for the blog would be bad as far as business models go.


Link

This is a good place to start
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Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Well, I hope we here in Galveston don't get a one-two combo with 95L and 96L. It would be like a jab followed by an upper cut! With that in mind, what kind of influence will 95L have on 96L, if any?


I'd imagine that if anything, it would be the other way around. That is, 96L would influence 95L, obviously in a negative manner. This is because 96L should develop faster. Much faster.
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Quoting xcool:
wowwwwwwwwwwwww cmc


Looks like it's spinning up a storm every time someone flushes the toilet again.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Possibly.
Well, I hope we here in Galveston don't get a one-two combo with 95L and 96L. It would be like a jab followed by an upper cut! With that in mind, what kind of influence will 95L have on 96L, if any?
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1185. xcool
wowwwwwwwwwwwww cmc
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15624
1184. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15624
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Concerning 95L, if it doesn't make to a TD or TS, and continues to drift the west toward Galveston, can we still expect plenty of rain from it?


Possibly.
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Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Why does 95L gets a 20% chance in your opinion to me it looks horrible it will go down to 10 in my opinion.


Upper-level winds should begin to improve by tomorrow.
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1181. xcool
could be interesting week.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15624
I think they will both be 10%.
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1179. beell
Carribbean wave may have just passed this buoy if that SE wind obs holds for a bit.
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1178. CJC111
Instead of quoting something that should not be seen to begin with, perhaps it's best to say something along the lines of "[insert name here] has made remarks that are racist and has nothing to do with weather. [insert name here] should be placed on all ignore lists"
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Concerning 95L, if it doesn't make to a TD or TS, and continues to drift the west toward Galveston, can we still expect plenty of rain from it?
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I think both will be 20%.
Why does 95L gets a 20% chance in your opinion to me it looks horrible it will go down to 10 in my opinion.
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1175. xcool
leo305 :0
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey Baha where did you get that map please post the link
It's OPC's forecast. Good for high seas stuff and so on.
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Thanks.
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1172. will45
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
I know all to well it's best not to respond at all, but I can't seem to pass up the urge then the proper way would be to just insert the post number?


Yes if everyone did that it would be fine
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Quoting AllBoardedUp:
So if someone quotes a person who is on other people's ignore list than that quote will show up?


Yes.
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hey Baha where did you get that map please post the link
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1169. leo305
Quoting xcool:
95l rain


more like scattered clouds by the looks of things
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I know all to well it's best not to respond at all, but I can't seem to pass up the urge then the proper way would be to just insert the post number?
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1167. xcool
95l rain
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15624
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
So if someone quotes a person who is on other people's ignore list than that quote will show up?


Correct.
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Thank you Guygee, off to do some reading take care
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Speculation on the TWO at 2 am? I believe 95L will be down to a 10%, Caribbean AOI 20%.


I think both will be 20%.
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1163. will45
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
So if someone quotes a person is on other people's ignore list than that quote will show up?


Yes it definately will show
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Quoting futuremet:


I understand. However, trolls just want to spread their malicious posts like a virus. You are in a sense helping by quoting them. You can respond without quoting them.
So if someone quotes a person who is on other people's ignore list than that quote will show up?
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@1150 alex was larger, but darby was still a cat 2 i do believe.
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Quoting txsweetpea:
Does anyone think that the disturbance in the southwest Caribbean is going to develop into something to be concerned about?


Hi txsweetpea....
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Sorry, but sometimes things need to be quoted so people know what's up.


I understand. However, trolls just want to spread their malicious posts like a virus. You are in a sense helping by quoting them. You can respond without quoting them.
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1155. CJC111
Just a quick question if anyone knows. I'm looking to find highest rainfall totals by city for a 1 year period. Does anyone know where I might be able to find that? P.S. A pay for blog tends to drive away a great many people and not pay nearly as well as the advertisements. I'm betting that paying for the blog would be bad as far as business models go.
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1154. 7544
yeap isee too 96l soon
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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