Gulf of Mexico disturbance 95L worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:02 PM GMT on July 03, 2010

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A cold front that pushed off the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf Coast has stalled out over the waters immediately offshore. An area of low pressure, Invest 95L, has developed in the Gulf of Mexico, about 100 miles southeast of the Deepwater Horizon oil disaster. Satellite loops show that this low does have a broad surface circulation, but heavy thunderstorm activity is being limited by 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. Water Vapor satellite loops show that 95L is embedded in a large region of dry air associated with an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system, and this dry air will hinder 95L's development. The cold, dry air associated with this upper-level low is giving 95L a subtropical appearance, with the main heavy thunderstorm activity (to the south) located well away from the center of circulation. NHC is giving 95L a 20% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical depression by 2pm Monday. Wind shear is forecast to be in the 20 - 30 knot range Sunday through Monday, so any development of 95L should be slow. The disturbance is moving west at about 10 - 15 mph, and a general westward motion towards Texas should continue through Monday. None of the reliable computer models develop 95L into a depression. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 95L on Sunday, if necessary.

Elsewhere in the tropics, we should keep an eye on the region to the east of South Carolina for possible development, as well as the western Caribbean. None of the reliable models is showing a tropical storm developing in the Atlantic over the coming week, though.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 95L.

Next post
I am on vacation for the coming week, and Dr. Rob Carver will be handling most or all of the blogging duties July 5 - July 12. One of us will be posting on July 4 if there is a major development to report.

Jeff Masters

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1216. That make wake me up in a few hours in NE dade. Going to sleep now night all.
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Nothing is ready to organize into a TD in the carribean for the next 2 days.

A LLC is expected to form just east-southeast of the bahamas in 2-3 days.. could move west across florida by mid-late week.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Like 2008's Hurricane Bertha becoming the earliest Cape Verde hurricane to form beating out Hurricane Bertha in 1996?


Yeah. That's another one.
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Quoting btwntx08:

that there should be 96L its still blowing up expect 96L at any time


Hey btwntx08. Aren't you located at Brownsville, TX? If so, how was your experience during Hurricane Alex? If you have a story about Alex, I have been eager to hear them on my blog.

Hope everything is okay.
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Quoting CJC111:
Can't imagine 42 inces of rain in 1 day. Nashville was brought to it's knees by half of that in a 2 day period
Yeah, places that never came close to flooding the past were inundated from rising water. Fortunately, most of the flooding was in rural areas, so the damage was limited. Plus, the land southeast of Alvin toward the Gulf is flat. Being only 15 miles from Galveston Bay and mostly farm land also helped limit the damage.
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1248. beell
A fairly well defined mid level spin on "night-time visible" at 17.5N/82W?
Link

Matches pretty well with the CIMSS 850 vort product.
Link
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Quoting KoritheMan:


That'd be a weird coincidence.

Texas seems to feel these weird coincidences, for whatever reason.

Another one is the Alicia/Allison/Allison freak coincidence of a slow-moving, nearly stalled out system, on the same exact naming list, affecting the Houston metropolitan area. That's. Just. Un. Real.


Like 2008's Hurricane Bertha becoming the earliest Cape Verde hurricane to form beating out Hurricane Bertha in 1996?

It would be insane if Bonnie 2010 followed the same exact genesis, track and intensity as Alex 2010.
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1. A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE GENERALLY WEST OR NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 5 MPH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY INHIBITING
DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES
INLAND LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

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1245. CJC111
Can't imagine 42 inces of rain in 1 day. Nashville was brought to it's knees by half of that in a 2 day period
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Quoting JLPR2:
Western Caribbean disturbance really wants the 96L title LOL!


I agree. That satellite photo looks like there is a nicely defined spin developing SW of Jamaica. Anyone else seeing this?

Also, when do they declare Invests? Is it during the issuance of a tropical weather outlook? I like how this website is great at informing us when an Invest develops, it does better than the NHC site at this.
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Quoting ThePlywoodState:
thanks gang! much appreciated. so, what are we on the hunt for tonight? anything out there in the high atlantic seas? i've been reading that we have 96l, where is it at?


Two areas of interest:

95L, located a couple hundred miles southeast of New Orleans, Louisiana. Upper-level winds could improve tomorrow, but dry air will probably still be a problem. Right now the system is highly disorganized, and not at all aligned in the vertical. Any development will be slow to occur. A reconnaissance mission is scheduled for tomorrow, but I get the feeling it's going to get canceled. Landfall should occur in extreme southeast Texas or western Louisiana within the next 24 to 36 hours.

96L: This isn't official yet, but a tropical wave is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers across the western Caribbean Sea. 850 mb vorticity is decent in this area, but this system does not yet appear to be vertically stacked, either. However, the GFS forecasts an anticyclonic environment in association with this system (though not as robust as the one Alex had to work with) throughout the next several days.

This is the system I'd really keep an eye on. It could become the season's second storm, and the second storm could be another hurricane for the Gulf of Mexico.
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1241. xcool
Wind- Shear not all that bad
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
1240. JLPR2
Western Caribbean disturbance really wants the 96L title LOL!
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Quoting beell:


Houston.



And there's extreme SE TX chimin' in!


Lol. Yeah the border peeps right between you and Korithe. 00Z CMC isn't any better than the 12z.
Link
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Quoting ThePlywoodState:
thanks for the breakdown there, KorithMan! i recall stormW. well, hopefully the rest will be back soon enough. i cant say i remember who levi32 is, perhaps my brain cells are finally begining to die out in me lol. what about catas, presslord, aquak, amy, taz, and the rest of em, any word? i've missed them all. anyways, im happy to be back amongts you all. hopefully this year's cane season will be like 09, fingesr crossed, but based on everything that i've read, i might be lying to myself here lol. by the way, im from naples.


presslord only posts occasionally, and not on his main account. He posts on some alternate account now called "Portlight". As the name implies, it is dedicated solely to Portlight, and providing assistance in the aftermath of natural disasters. He posts on this account to give updates on Portlight's progress in the aftermath of a given disaster.

I still see aquak pop in every now and then, and I think amy does as well. Taz, too. A lot.
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1237. JLPR2
Quoting ThePlywoodState:
thanks for the breakdown there, KorithMan! i recall stormW. well, hopefully the rest will be back soon enough. i cant say i remember who levi32 is, perhaps my brain cells are finally begining to die out in me lol. what about catas, presslord, aquak, amy, taz, and the rest of em, any word? i've missed them all. anyways, im happy to be back amongts you all. hopefully this year's cane season will be like 09, fingesr crossed, but based on everything that i've read, i might be lying to myself here lol. by the way, im from naples.


Yeah, I remember that avatar... I think... :S
I have a really bad memory :\
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Quoting CJC111:
Thanks again Progster. 1979 was an interesting year for rain. It held our previous 1 and 2 day totals due to the remnants of hurricane Frederick. That's the year that I found out that dogs really do not like fast moving water.
Did someone mention rain in 1979? Alvin Texas, 15 miles west of Galveston held(or still has) the record for rainfall in a 24 hour period at 42 inches from Tropical Storm Claudette, which ironically, stalled along the coast much like Allison and Alicia.
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Quoting xcool:
I wouldn't be suprised at 2.AM 96l pop up



20%


I'd say 8 AM.
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1233. xcool
ThePlywoodState anytime..
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
1232. CJC111
Thanks again Progster. 1979 was an interesting year for rain. It held our previous 1 and 2 day totals due to the remnants of hurricane Frederick. That's the year that I found out that dogs really do not like fast moving water.
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Quoting ThePlywoodState:
thanks for the breakdown there, KorithMan! i recall stormW. well, hopefully the rest will be back soon enough. i cant say i remember who levi32 is, perhaps my brain cells are finally begining to die out in me lol. what about catas, presslord, aquak, amy, taz, and the rest of em, any word? i've missed them all. anyways, im happy to be back amongts you all. hopefully this year's cane season will be like 09, fingesr crossed, but based on everything that i've read, i might be lying to myself here lol. by the way, im from naples.


Can't say I know you, just started coming here last year....but, welcome back!
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1229. beell
Quoting KoritheMan:


hahaha

Yeah, I'm in LA. Prairieville, specifically.

Where exactly are you in Texas? So that I'll know in the event you get a tropical cyclone?


Houston.

Quoting homelesswanderer:


I don't like the CMC. We already had Bonnie in'86. Do not want Bonnie's Revenge TYVM! Lol.


And there's extreme SE TX chimin' in!
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


The heat build-up in the Tropical Atlantic is likely a large contributing factor. We're in uncharted territory this year, with so many parameters in favor of at record levels instead of against. I am really anxious to see our first Cape Verde storm.


Maybe the first big Cape Verde storm will be Igor (that sounds like a rough name suitable for a hurricane, LOL). No offense to anyone whose actual name is Igor.
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1226. xcool
I wouldn't be suprised at 2.AM 96l pop up



20%
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
Quoting homelesswanderer:


I don't like the CMC. We already had Bonnie in'86. Do not want Bonnie's Revenge TYVM! Lol.


That'd be a weird coincidence.

Texas seems to feel these weird coincidences, for whatever reason.

Another one is the Alicia/Allison/Allison freak coincidence of a slow-moving, nearly stalled out system, on the same exact naming list, affecting the Houston metropolitan area. That's. Just. Un. Real.
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Hi homeless....
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1222. xcool
ThePlywoodState welcome.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
Quoting will45:
I would not be surprised if 96L comes from the mess N of the Bahamas. The good dr mentioned it as an area to watch in his update


Have to disagree with you on this one:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

See a circulation center developing at 82.5W, 17N in the Caribbean associated with the tropical wave in the Caribbean tonight. This system IMO is showing signs of developing a little quickly underneath a Caribbean anticyclone. This IMO only, not on the offensive or anything.

The stuff norh of the Bahamas to me just looks frontal and disorganized right now on that same satellite image.
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Quoting beell:


Well, since I'm on the upper TX coast and you are in LA (i think), we could favor one over the other lol.


I don't like the CMC. We already had Bonnie in'86. Do not want Bonnie's Revenge TYVM! Lol.
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Quoting beell:


Well, since I'm on the upper TX coast and you are in LA (i think), we could favor one over the other lol.


hahaha

Yeah, I'm in LA. Prairieville, specifically.

Where exactly are you in Texas? So that I'll know in the event you get a tropical cyclone?
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Quoting soclueless:
@1126 & @1127 thank you both for your answers, was just wondering because to me alex looked out of place, he should have been pacific, and never saw a tropical storm kill a cat 2 or 3 {can't remember what Darby was at the time} hurricane like that before, to me that makes for some strange weather


The heat build-up in the Tropical Atlantic is likely a large contributing factor. We're in uncharted territory this year, with so many parameters in favor of at record levels instead of against. I am really anxious to see our first Cape Verde storm.
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Quoting CJC111:
Thanks Progster. Was looking there but couldn't find record totals for a year. I will dig a little further. The reason I was asking is because Nashville has already had record rains for 1 day, 2 days, and 1 month. We are about 15 inches short of the yearly average of 48 and was curious about the record for 1 year. Will continue to try to find it. Thanks again.

Link

looks like 70.12 inches in 1979
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Interesting blob ?spinning? around 27W7N (I believe KarenRei pointed it out earlier)

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Quoting ThePlywoodState:
How's everyone doing? I'm back after a rather long hibernation pause. WOW, so many familiar faces on here, yet, so many new faces on here as well. How WU has changed since my good old blogging days. Sorry for being a month late into the hurricane season lol. Let me ask ya'll a question; do some of the old bloggers like, Nash, JP, MLC, and Drakoen still continue to post on here, or not anymore?


Unless jp has managed to sneak an alt in here, I think you can discount him (though I still truly believe that BurnedAfterPosting from last year was definitely him, even though he told me that he wasn't).

Nash came back during Alex's lifetime. I imagine he'll be back when we get Bonnie, as well. And for all the other storms, as well. As for MLC, I actually haven't seen him in awhile, now that you mention it. Same with Fshhead. Those were nice guys. We got along great.

Drak still posts. A lot. Levi also posts quite a bit as well, as do StormW and Weather456.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Oh, it's no problem. I will happily and truthfully admit that my knowledge pales in comparison to that of, say, StormW or 456. But it's because of people like them that I've come as far as I have.

I do consider myself to know a fair bit regarding tropical meteorology (not to toot my horn at all -- I'm above that, I'm just saying this for the sake of this discussion), so anytime you have a question, don't hesitate to ask me. I'll do my best to help!
I appreciate it.
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1209. will45
I would not be surprised if 96L comes from the mess N of the Bahamas. The good dr mentioned it as an area to watch in his update
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1208. beell
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yeah. There's also this. The 12z run of the steering current loops on PSU's e-wall had two solutions: an equatorial track (GFS), and a poleward track (CMC). It's obviously impossible to favor either scenario at the moment, as both are plausible. But the weaker ridging that the CMC sees might be coming, in part, from 95L.


Well, since I'm on the upper TX coast and you are in LA (i think), we could favor one over the other lol.
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Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Thanks for the info! Please forgive me if my questions seem amateurish, I have been lurking on here since 2005, post every once in awhile, but I am a long ways off from having the knowledge of most on here. But I have learned a lot from what I knew before finding this blog.


Oh, it's no problem. I will happily and truthfully admit that my knowledge pales in comparison to that of, say, StormW or 456. But it's because of people like them that I've come as far as I have.

I do consider myself to know a fair bit regarding tropical meteorology (not to toot my horn at all -- I'm above that, I'm just saying this for the sake of this discussion), so anytime you have a question, don't hesitate to ask me. I'll do my best to help!
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Speculation on the TWO at 2 am? I believe 95L will be down to a 10%, Caribbean AOI 20%.


I am with you on that. 95L is under an upper low, and the Caribbean AOI is under a large anticyclonic upper ridge.
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1205. xcool
ThePlywoodState /Drakoen yes
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.