Gulf of Mexico disturbance 95L worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:02 PM GMT on July 03, 2010

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A cold front that pushed off the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf Coast has stalled out over the waters immediately offshore. An area of low pressure, Invest 95L, has developed in the Gulf of Mexico, about 100 miles southeast of the Deepwater Horizon oil disaster. Satellite loops show that this low does have a broad surface circulation, but heavy thunderstorm activity is being limited by 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. Water Vapor satellite loops show that 95L is embedded in a large region of dry air associated with an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system, and this dry air will hinder 95L's development. The cold, dry air associated with this upper-level low is giving 95L a subtropical appearance, with the main heavy thunderstorm activity (to the south) located well away from the center of circulation. NHC is giving 95L a 20% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical depression by 2pm Monday. Wind shear is forecast to be in the 20 - 30 knot range Sunday through Monday, so any development of 95L should be slow. The disturbance is moving west at about 10 - 15 mph, and a general westward motion towards Texas should continue through Monday. None of the reliable computer models develop 95L into a depression. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 95L on Sunday, if necessary.

Elsewhere in the tropics, we should keep an eye on the region to the east of South Carolina for possible development, as well as the western Caribbean. None of the reliable models is showing a tropical storm developing in the Atlantic over the coming week, though.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 95L.

Next post
I am on vacation for the coming week, and Dr. Rob Carver will be handling most or all of the blogging duties July 5 - July 12. One of us will be posting on July 4 if there is a major development to report.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Bit paranoid tonight Tex??? Lol. Sadly that's true. :(
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Bit paranoid tonight Tex??? Lol. Sadly that's true. :(


Sorry, picture posted twice I think..
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
Quoting TexasHurricane:
I guess we need to keep a look out from all angles this year....Never know what will develop and where....



Bit paranoid tonight Tex??? Lol. Sadly that's true. :(
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Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
Quoting btwntx08:

im saying it shouldve been 20% myself as well usually i see a different forecaster at this time lol


It might have been 20 if we had Stewart.
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1299. xcool
guess 8am best call
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
well beell I see more of a spin to the SE near 15.5N 79.5W and yea I see your spin but I thnk our real system spin is at 15.5N 79.5W


Hmmm... 82.5W, 17N is what I was seeing (during post 1221), perhaps I am looking a bit too far north and west.
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I guess we need to keep a look out from all angles this year....Never know what will develop and where....

Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
1295. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:
convection good


yeah, but it needs to work the structure department, let's see, if the deep convection persists that may be an easy thing
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
we have a 10 10% on the TWO

000
ABNT20 KNHC 040532
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUL 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH OF
THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY
WESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 5 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE CURRENTLY INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT...AND
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND LATER TODAY
OR MONDAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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NOGAPS sends Caribbean blob to Corpus and the one off the SE to everyone in the GOM. Lol.
Link
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1292. xcool
convection good
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
we have a 10 10% on the TWO

000
ABNT20 KNHC 040532
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUL 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH OF
THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY
WESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 5 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE CURRENTLY INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT...AND
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND LATER TODAY
OR MONDAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1289. CJC111
Nashville is a community that comes together really well. Some of the places that were flooded were country music landmarks which helped bring A LOT of money in.

Another odd ball question if anyone knows. What percentage of error is allowed by NOAA for a model not to be recognized? I see quite a bit of posting in regards to one model vs another model and was wondering at what point does a model get discounted or perhaps a new model recognized.
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Quoting btwntx08:
ok what the ___ brennanis doing looks way better than 10% someone forgot to drink their coffee early this early am


At most, I would have only given it 20%. Brennan knows what he's doing.
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1287. xcool
homelesswanderer LMAO
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
1285. xcool
GFS SHOWS 0000
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Quoting xcool:
gfs no hope


Lol. I agree. Not much help is it?? SmileyCentral.com
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1283. JLPR2
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
well beell I see more of a spin to the SE near 15.5N 79.5W and yea I see your spin but I thnk our real system spin is at 15.5N 79.5W


I will just say I think the spin that is visible by some is the nice 850mb vorticity but as others said before me, at the 950mb levels which is closer to the surface its rather disorganized.


In my opinion I would say that this area could get going(if it gets going) by Monday-Tuesday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1282. xcool
we need
Quickscat
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
000
ABNT20 KNHC 040532
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUL 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH OF
THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY
WESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 5 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE CURRENTLY INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT...AND
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND LATER TODAY
OR MONDAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ThePlywoodState:
hey xcool, does the gfs continue to be as bad as always? lol, cause i recall how in 08 that model did very poorly with a lot of storms that year. i wonder when are they gonna give it a well needed boost, lol.


Actually, the GFS has recently been highly upgraded. I believe it is now called the "GFS parallel". The older version, called the "GFS operational" is still active, and can be found here.

To my knowledge (I could be wrong though, since I really haven't used the GFS parallel yet), the parallel version can be found here.

If I'm not wrong, I believe the GFS parallel will soon be the only version of the GFS available.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1278. beell
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
well beell I see more of a spin to the SE near 15.5N 79.5W and yea I see your spin but I thnk our real system spin is at 15.5N 79.5W


Still on the broad side, I guess, wunderkid. I did put a question mark on the end.
Thanks.
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Quoting CJC111:
Unfortunately, Nashville is anything but flat. Lots of hills and valleys, rivers and creeks. Entire neighborhoods were under water but people who lived on the same street were ok if they lived at the top of the hill.

I was looking at the historical data and have to wonder about the accuracy of some of the older data. Does anyone happen to know how accurate older rainfall and snow totals are?
It's a shame what happened to Nashville. I hope they are recovering alright. Haven't heard any news lately about them. As far as the accuracy of the older data, I do know that the National Weather Service had a station in the town of Alvin so these measurements were from them and not somebody's rain gauge (not they aren't accurate). That weather station has since moved to another city in Galveston County. I believe it is in League City or Friendswood which are adjacent to Alvin.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1276. Grothar
Quoting xcool:
:0


What are you so shocked about xcool? That your're still up or that I am still up at my age? What is new in the tropics, and how many bans were there last night?
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1275. JLPR2
You cant count on ASCAT for squat -.-



I miss Quickscat :'(
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Repost from a few days ago, from Max Mayfield's Blog (http://maxmayfieldshurricaneblog.wordpress.com/):

JULY FORMATION POINTS 1851-2009



"The above graphic shows preferred areas for tropical storm formation in the month of July to be over the Gulf of Mexico, the western Caribbean Sea, and off the southeast U.S. coast similar to June, but we also start looking to the east over the tropical Atlantic during July. The historical data set shows that 105 tropical storms have formed in July from 1851 through 2009."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1273. xcool
that 96L SHOWS BY CMC
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
1270. JRRP
CMC
Link
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1269. xcool
:0
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
1148 Patrap " [GOES-13 2010/7/4] "

Ghost blob with spin centered south of eastCentral Louisiana, slightly north of Tampa's latitude?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1266. CJC111
Unfortunately, Nashville is anything but flat. Lots of hills and valleys, rivers and creeks. Entire neighborhoods were under water but people who lived on the same street were ok if they lived at the top of the hill.

I was looking at the historical data and have to wonder about the accuracy of some of the older data. Does anyone happen to know how accurate older rainfall and snow totals are?
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


When should this be in the GOM?


Two to three days.
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Always be prepared wherever you may be.
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well beell I see more of a spin to the SE near 15.5N 79.5W and yea I see your spin but I thnk our real system spin is at 15.5N 79.5W
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Quoting ThePlywoodState:
thanks for the tropical update there, korith, im glad to see that you are on top of things. apparently i need to re-polish up the skills that i once had for the tropics, lol. toooo much time away, i dread to say.


LOL

What's wrong with you? While you've been slouching off, I've been brushing up on my forecasting skills, even during the enormously quiet season of 2009. Who says quiet years don't demand that we keep our skills sharp?

Laziness, I say! Laziness! :P
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Quoting JLPR2:
Western Caribbean disturbance really wants the 96L title LOL!


When should this be in the GOM?
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
Quoting scottsvb:
Nothing is ready to organize into a TD in the carribean for the next 2 days.

A LLC is expected to form just east-southeast of the bahamas in 2-3 days.. could move west across florida by mid-late week.


Are you sure? I mean, just look at the satellite image in post 1240. It looks like its trying to spin up SW of Jamaica, and there is a great anticyclone over it. Just my thoughts.
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1257. beell
Quoting scottsvb:
Nothing is ready to organize into a TD in the carribean for the next 2 days.

A LLC is expected to form just east-southeast of the bahamas in 2-3 days.. could move west across florida by mid-late week.


Upper level winds may not be as favorable in the Bahamas-near the base of the TUTT.
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1255. xcool
gfs no hope
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
1216. That make wake me up in a few hours in NE dade. Going to sleep now night all.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.