Gulf of Mexico disturbance 95L worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:02 PM GMT on July 03, 2010

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A cold front that pushed off the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf Coast has stalled out over the waters immediately offshore. An area of low pressure, Invest 95L, has developed in the Gulf of Mexico, about 100 miles southeast of the Deepwater Horizon oil disaster. Satellite loops show that this low does have a broad surface circulation, but heavy thunderstorm activity is being limited by 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. Water Vapor satellite loops show that 95L is embedded in a large region of dry air associated with an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system, and this dry air will hinder 95L's development. The cold, dry air associated with this upper-level low is giving 95L a subtropical appearance, with the main heavy thunderstorm activity (to the south) located well away from the center of circulation. NHC is giving 95L a 20% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical depression by 2pm Monday. Wind shear is forecast to be in the 20 - 30 knot range Sunday through Monday, so any development of 95L should be slow. The disturbance is moving west at about 10 - 15 mph, and a general westward motion towards Texas should continue through Monday. None of the reliable computer models develop 95L into a depression. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 95L on Sunday, if necessary.

Elsewhere in the tropics, we should keep an eye on the region to the east of South Carolina for possible development, as well as the western Caribbean. None of the reliable models is showing a tropical storm developing in the Atlantic over the coming week, though.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 95L.

Next post
I am on vacation for the coming week, and Dr. Rob Carver will be handling most or all of the blogging duties July 5 - July 12. One of us will be posting on July 4 if there is a major development to report.

Jeff Masters

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Looks like 95L lives. It seems to be firing up.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html
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1353. GetReal



The most interesting feature in the tropical Atl is moving NW right towards the Yucatan Channel. Good outflow aloft, and cyclonic turning at the surface... IMO this IS the next TC problem for the GOM late Monday, or Tuesday morning.
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1352. xcool
so cmc take to sw LA / ECMWF GO TO MX
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1351. xcool
homelesswanderer

was so wrong what alex it last minute jump up nw .
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting homelesswanderer:


That looks scary any time. But yeah I know what you mean.


And it keeps shifting east. Everytime it's updated, it's landfalling more to the East
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Quoting xcool:
homelesswanderer/ .do some shi what alex ecw model..


Yeah. We still in wait and see mode.
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Quoting BaltOCane:
Link

I'm sorry, but to my untrained eye, the CMC looks scary for the start of July


That looks scary any time. But yeah I know what you mean.
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1347. xcool
homelesswanderer/ .do some shi what alex ecw model..
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1346. xcool



kk
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting xcool:










not buy in too


Back to TX/MX border?
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1344. CJC111
"Home-grown mischief". Yep, that's Levi. He is basically saying possibility of 3+ storms in the coming week+. And that everywhere from Mexico to the Carolinas (primarily Mexico to Texas) should keep an eye out. Is that an accurate summary?
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Looks like the blog is slowing, everyone sleepy?

I discovered a hurricane that helped the US win against the British in the War of 1812. Since its the 4th, perhaps a good bedtime story since we are all into tropical weather. Story on my blog.
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Link

I'm sorry, but to my untrained eye, the CMC looks scary for the start of July
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1341. xcool










not buy in too
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Mmmmm...Not so sure yet. If it takes long enough to develop, the track could be even more W than N, I'd say keep an eye on it for now if your coastline in the Gulf is a south-facing one.


Sorry, I forgot to clarify. What I meant by south-facing coast. From Houston, TX eastward to the Florida panhandle.
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Quoting CJC111:
Muchos gracias homelesswanderer


You're welcome. He's a lot smarter than I. :)Oh and I really wouldn't move to Alaska on him like I threatened in his blog. Lol. Poor kid.
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1338. xcool
lmao
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting ThePlywoodState:
thanks for the breakdown there, KorithMan! i recall stormW. well, hopefully the rest will be back soon enough. i cant say i remember who levi32 is, perhaps my brain cells are finally begining to die out in me lol. what about catas, presslord, aquak, amy, taz, and the rest of em, any word? i've missed them all. anyways, im happy to be back amongts you all. hopefully this year's cane season will be like 09, fingesr crossed, but based on everything that i've read, i might be lying to myself here lol. by the way, im from naples.


Guys I'm not trying to cause a ruckus. but earlier there was a member on here who said something about ThePlywoodState being JFV and this post definitely sounds like him. Note the misspelling of amongst and the constant "lol"'s and the smiley faces. Also this blogger has no photos as of January 2008, when he said he was here then. Just letting everyone know.
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Quoting jlp09550:
It feels like this disturbance is heading straight for me. I just got that feeling, like when Ike and Gustav were threatening us.


Just how close to Texas are you? Lol.
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ok, I see. Thanks
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
1334. CJC111
Muchos gracias homelesswanderer
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


so no TX then?


Mmmmm...Not so sure yet. If it takes long enough to develop, the track could be even more W than N, I'd say keep an eye on it for now if your coastline in the Gulf is a south-facing one.
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


so no TX then?


Dunno yet. In that link Levi talks about if it develops here it may move one way, there it may move another.
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1331. xcool


new
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Quoting CJC111:
Looking for a Levi post so I can link to his blog...
Link

Post 6
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Quoting CJC111:
Even if it's a bit more west than north, either way, if it does development, it's going to be an oily mess. Early indications are that it will be east of where alex went which would evacuate the Bay of BP


I am really ticked off about that oil spill. I mean, offshore drilling in a hurricane prone area spells disaster. Lets hope for the best this season. We learned with Alex that it doesnt' take a direct track over the oil spill to cause oil spill issues as well. Any tropical cyclone circulation in the Gulf of Mexcio is a problem, and the Gulf is a hurricane prone spot all six months of the hurricane season!
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It feels like this disturbance is heading straight for me. I just got that feeling, like when Ike and Gustav were threatening us.
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1327. xcool
yep
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1326. CJC111
Looking for a Levi post so I can link to his blog...
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caribbean aoi is moving what appears to be nnw...
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Levi talks about that in a post on his blog too.


so no TX then?
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1323. CJC111
Even if it's a bit more west than north, either way, if it does development, it's going to be an oily mess. Early indications are that it will be east of where alex went which would evacuate the Bay of BP
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


In my opinion (IMO), this could track NW and N once it forms. This is because the central US ridge that steered Alex into NE Mexico is now positioned over teh eastern US and departing further east. It would seem that it would track on the west side of the ridge, hence the more north track. I hate to say that would mean a track through teh central or eastern Gulf of Mexico, and landfall along the Gulf coast of the US.

If it takes longer to develop, then its track would be further to the west before it curves north.


Levi talks about that in a post on his blog too.
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Quoting CJC111:
Seeoms like the Caribbean AOI has more of northward trend than Alex did. Does anyone have a forecasted track on this one yet?


In my opinion (IMO), this could track NW and N once it forms. This is because the central US ridge that steered Alex into NE Mexico is now positioned over teh eastern US and departing further east. It would seem that it would track on the west side of the ridge, hence the more north track. I hate to say that would mean a track through teh central or eastern Gulf of Mexico, and landfall along the Gulf coast of the US.

If it takes longer to develop, then its track would be further to the west before it curves north.
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Quoting JLPR2:
You cant count on ASCAT for squat -.-



I miss Quickscat :'(


I was just thinking the exact same thing today. If they were in Vegas, the house would win every time.
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1319. CJC111
Seems like the Caribbean AOI has more of northward trend than Alex did. Does anyone have a forecasted track on this one yet?
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Quoting jlp09550:
Since the GOM low isn't firing up much, I'll keep my animations (and eye) on the Caribbean disturbance. It looks more interesting.




I know what you mean, with every frame, its like, ooooh aaaahh. Definetly keeps looking like a spin developing SW of Jamaica. And like 93L (which eventually became Alex), its under a good anticyclone.
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Quoting jlp09550:
Since the GOM low isn't firing up much, I'll keep my animations (and eye) on the Caribbean disturbance. It looks more interesting.




Indeed it does...
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Lovely. Just what they need. :(


Don't worry, Alex has been reduced to rubble, and will never re-emerge as anything important. Might still have to watch for some more flooding over central Mexico until it fizzles. I hope they are doing fine out there in central Mexico.
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Quoting jlp09550:
Since the GOM low isn't firing up much, I'll keep my animations (and eye) on the Caribbean disturbance. It looks more interesting.




As you (all) should. This thing could be dangerous.
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1313. CJC111
If I remember correctly, shear should lift north soon. Seems everything north of South America is extremely volatile. If the trend continues and shear lifts, this does not bode well.
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Since the GOM low isn't firing up much, I'll keep my animations (and eye) on the Caribbean disturbance. It looks more interesting.


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TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS

AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH

0515 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 10N38W TO 2N41W DRIFTING W. WAVE
IS LOW AMPLITUDE AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. WEAK CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. ANY CONVECTION IN
THE VICINITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 16N52W INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
TO 5N60W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THE AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE
MAXIMUM AS EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200
NM SE AND 120 NM NW OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 12N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE
FROM 16N77W TO 17N79W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 75W-82W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N14W 7N27W 5N41W 9N58W 9N63W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE
FROM 8N16W ACROSS THE ITCZ TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA NEAR 11N16W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 200 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 21W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS N FROM MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS TO OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES COVERING THE W GULF W OF
A LINE FROM ALABAMA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO NEAR
VERA CRUZ. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE US INTO THE
W ATLC COVERING THE E GULF WITH A SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PANAMA CITY SW TO NEAR 25N90W. THIS UPPER
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING...AT 0300 UTC...A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
27N89W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 25N88W TO 24N90W.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA FROM THE W ATLC NEAR
TAMPA TO THE 1012 MB LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N-30N E OF 89W TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF
25N E OF 85W THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF IS UNDER AN ABUNDANCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N77W
DOMINATES THE AREA W OF 68W WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED
IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC COVERING THE E CARIBBEAN. THE MOST
DOMINATE SURFACE FEATURE IS THE TROPICAL WAVE. THERE IS
ABUNDANCE OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN
WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DOTTING THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION
N OF 20N BETWEEN 78W-85W TO OVER CUBA. THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W
IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR...THUS CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPS OVER THE N PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA TO NEAR 28N W OF 60W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
AREA NEAR 32N59W SW ALONG 26N66W TO 28N74W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY ALONG 29N78W THEN ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 70W-75W AND FROM 30N TO OVER CUBA W OF 75W
TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT E OF 65W. A
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N48W SW TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 25N52W TO 19N56W. AN
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW OFF
THE COAST OF MOROCCO ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO A SECOND UPPER
LOW NEAR 20N35W TO NEAR 11N37W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN
THE TROPICS NEAR 14N49W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING E TO OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND E
ATLC E OF 55W ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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Quoting AussieStorm:



THE ANTICYCLONE OVER NRN MEXICO IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW THAT IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NRN STATES OF MEXICO...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ALEX. A NARROW MID TO UPPER
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM A SMALL CIRCULATION OVER THE N
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N85W SSW ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
TO THE E PACIFIC NEAR 10N99W...JUST N OF THE ITCZ. NE TO E FLOW
OCCURRING BETWEEN THIS SHEAR AXIS AND THE UPPER RIDGE NOTED
ABOVE IS CREATING A BROAD ZONE OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE N OF THE ITCZ
W OF 100W WITH UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS OF 55 TO 75 KT PER
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THIS BROAD EASTERLY JET WAS ADVECTING
MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC S OF 20N AND
E OF 120W.


Lovely. Just what they need. :(
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Are you sure? I mean, just look at the satellite image in post 1240. It looks like its trying to spin up SW of Jamaica, and there is a great anticyclone over it. Just my thoughts.

It take a couple days if anything.. better chance in the GOM.. I would be watching east of the bahamas more.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

THE ANTICYCLONE OVER NRN MEXICO IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW THAT IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NRN STATES OF MEXICO...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ALEX. A NARROW MID TO UPPER
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM A SMALL CIRCULATION OVER THE N
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N85W SSW ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
TO THE E PACIFIC NEAR 10N99W...JUST N OF THE ITCZ. NE TO E FLOW
OCCURRING BETWEEN THIS SHEAR AXIS AND THE UPPER RIDGE NOTED
ABOVE IS CREATING A BROAD ZONE OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE N OF THE ITCZ
W OF 100W WITH UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS OF 55 TO 75 KT PER
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THIS BROAD EASTERLY JET WAS ADVECTING
MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC S OF 20N AND
E OF 120W.


Yep, been watching remnants of Alex just for the records in my personal Atlantic tropical weather journal. There's an upper trough approaching from the NW over the western US, I am wondering if it'll get extratropical and track NE while interacting with that upper trough.
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


Lol. NP. I can relate. Just waiting to see what the EURO will show tonight. See if I need to join the GFS in the loony bin. Lol.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Bit paranoid tonight Tex??? Lol. Sadly that's true. :(


You know what they always say, always be prepared, it only takes one storm!
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THE ANTICYCLONE OVER NRN MEXICO IS MAINTAINING AN AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW THAT IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN DEEP
CONVECTION ACROSS THE NRN STATES OF MEXICO...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ALEX. A NARROW MID TO UPPER
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM A SMALL CIRCULATION OVER THE N
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N85W SSW ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
TO THE E PACIFIC NEAR 10N99W...JUST N OF THE ITCZ. NE TO E FLOW
OCCURRING BETWEEN THIS SHEAR AXIS AND THE UPPER RIDGE NOTED
ABOVE IS CREATING A BROAD ZONE OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE N OF THE ITCZ
W OF 100W WITH UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS OF 55 TO 75 KT PER
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. THIS BROAD EASTERLY JET WAS ADVECTING
MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC S OF 20N AND
E OF 120W.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Bit paranoid tonight Tex??? Lol. Sadly that's true. :(
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Bit paranoid tonight Tex??? Lol. Sadly that's true. :(


Sorry, picture posted twice I think..
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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