Gulf of Mexico disturbance 95L worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:02 PM GMT on July 03, 2010

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A cold front that pushed off the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf Coast has stalled out over the waters immediately offshore. An area of low pressure, Invest 95L, has developed in the Gulf of Mexico, about 100 miles southeast of the Deepwater Horizon oil disaster. Satellite loops show that this low does have a broad surface circulation, but heavy thunderstorm activity is being limited by 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. Water Vapor satellite loops show that 95L is embedded in a large region of dry air associated with an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system, and this dry air will hinder 95L's development. The cold, dry air associated with this upper-level low is giving 95L a subtropical appearance, with the main heavy thunderstorm activity (to the south) located well away from the center of circulation. NHC is giving 95L a 20% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical depression by 2pm Monday. Wind shear is forecast to be in the 20 - 30 knot range Sunday through Monday, so any development of 95L should be slow. The disturbance is moving west at about 10 - 15 mph, and a general westward motion towards Texas should continue through Monday. None of the reliable computer models develop 95L into a depression. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 95L on Sunday, if necessary.

Elsewhere in the tropics, we should keep an eye on the region to the east of South Carolina for possible development, as well as the western Caribbean. None of the reliable models is showing a tropical storm developing in the Atlantic over the coming week, though.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 95L.

Next post
I am on vacation for the coming week, and Dr. Rob Carver will be handling most or all of the blogging duties July 5 - July 12. One of us will be posting on July 4 if there is a major development to report.

Jeff Masters

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1404. CJC111
Too much wind up there, btwntx08?
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1403. xcool
yeah bye 95l
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
1401. xcool
getting its act together
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
1400. CJC111
I thought I had seen animations earlier that seemed to show a northerly jog. Was that a figment of my imagination?
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now officially 96l
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1398. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
1397. xcool
JLPR2 sorry.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
1396. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:
JLPR2 :)


I couldn't stay confused LOL I would keep thinking about it :P

Close-up of our candidate for 96L:
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1395. xcool
96l hope soon
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
1393. xcool
JLPR2 :)
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
1392. xcool
poor 95L
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
1391. JLPR2
Looks like a NW turn, then west, then a SW turn

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Quoting CJC111:
Alex took a few days trying to decide if it wanted to develop and which way to go. Does the Caribbean system look like a shorter time span but just as intense system as Alex?


I'm not sure. I think earlier someone said it wouldn't take as long as Alex because there wouldn't be competing vortexes. But Another said it would take a while to get going. Hard to know which way it will go.
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1389. CJC111
Also, is the GOM system going to survive the shear?
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1388. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:
JLPR2 .I can't remember


Well now I'm confused XD
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1387. xcool
btwntx08 YEP SO TRUE.THAT WHY NOT BUY INTO RIGHT NOW.MX
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1386. xcool
JLPR2 .I can't remember
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
1384. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:
ECMWF TO FARSOUTH WHAT alex AT last minute jump up nw




wasn't it actually a SW turn before landfall?
O.o
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Another disturbing thing the models showing. Looks like another in the Caribbean right behind this one. Wow. We may just get 20 something storms this year.
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1382. CJC111
Alex took a few days trying to decide if it wanted to develop and which way to go. Does the Caribbean system look like a shorter time span but just as intense system as Alex?
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1381. xcool
ECMWF TO FARSOUTH WHAT alex AT last minute jump up nw


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
1380. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:




hmm
D-min did quite a number on the TW east of the Antilles LOL!
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1379. xcool
ECMWF showS weak STORMS I HAVE NO CLUE...
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Quoting CJC111:
Mother nature is much more powerful than anything we could put out there to turn her around


Lol. You got that right. Was worth a shot. ;) Something I noticed CMC has landfall in 96hrs. ECMWF is still in the BOC at that time. A lot of variables come into play. Well it won't be boring.
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1376. xcool
CJC111 lmao
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1375. xcool
home brew storms for 2010.
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1374. CJC111
lol, xcool
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1373. xcool


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1371. CJC111
Human with a magnifying glass versuses ants on a sidewalk is the same as mother nature versuses humans. If she has you in her crosshairs, there's nothing you can do about it but try to get out of the way.
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1370. xcool
Mother nature bad bic lol look out
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1369. CJC111
Mother nature is much more powerful than anything we could put out there to turn her around
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1368. xcool
lmao
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Quoting btwntx08:
if u not taking the ecmwf then im not buying the cmc lol ecmwf most reliable


Lol You can take em both. :P But yeah the Euro is the best usually.
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1366. xcool
btwntx08 .soory did not do good job alex imo.
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Quoting CJC111:
Ok. Time to set up some industrial strength fans along the GOM and blow this stuff back where it came from ;)


We tried that in 2008. It failed miserably. :(
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Quoting xcool:
ridge go weak


Yeah Houston NWS said something like that ysterday. Today they said that would just be a tropical wave and move into Mexico.
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1362. guygee
Quoting xcool:
we need
Quickscat
Amen. With its C band radar, ASCAT is very much inferior to the former Ku-band QuickSCAT, with roughly half the resolution and far less temporal coverage. How about three or four QuickSCATS for full temporal coverage 24/7? It is a national disgrace that a few academics and the Planetary Society lobbied Congress to reinstate the mission to Pluto (New Horizons), but NOAA, meteorological academics and all of the tropical meteorological enthusiasts could not get even one replacement for QuickSCAT. I know that the Ocean Prediction Center lobbied hard but was ignored. The National Weather Association also lobbied for the XOVWM Constellation replacement for QuickSCAT in early 2008 but was also ignored.

This would be a good opportunity to rekindle the Proenza War but I will just leave it at that...
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1361. CJC111
Ok. Time to set up some industrial strength fans along the GOM and blow this stuff back where it came from ;)
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Quoting TexasHurricane:
Nite all - Check back in tomorrow. Happy July 4th....


Nite Tex. you too. :)
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1359. xcool
ridge go weak
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
1358. GetReal



Oh did I mention that the blob entering the NW Caribbean is also becoming more symmetrical... Here is today's new invest! (Later this morning)
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Nite all - Check back in tomorrow. Happy July 4th....
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
1356. xcool
GetReal GUESS WHAT SOON TO BE 96l anymin,
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
Quoting xcool:
so cmc take to sw LA / ECMWF GO TO MX


Yeah at least maybe when does develop the models will come in line with each other. Looks like once again depends on the strength and position of the ridge.
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Looks like 95L lives. It seems to be firing up.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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