Gulf of Mexico disturbance 95L worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:02 PM GMT on July 03, 2010

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A cold front that pushed off the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf Coast has stalled out over the waters immediately offshore. An area of low pressure, Invest 95L, has developed in the Gulf of Mexico, about 100 miles southeast of the Deepwater Horizon oil disaster. Satellite loops show that this low does have a broad surface circulation, but heavy thunderstorm activity is being limited by 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. Water Vapor satellite loops show that 95L is embedded in a large region of dry air associated with an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system, and this dry air will hinder 95L's development. The cold, dry air associated with this upper-level low is giving 95L a subtropical appearance, with the main heavy thunderstorm activity (to the south) located well away from the center of circulation. NHC is giving 95L a 20% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical depression by 2pm Monday. Wind shear is forecast to be in the 20 - 30 knot range Sunday through Monday, so any development of 95L should be slow. The disturbance is moving west at about 10 - 15 mph, and a general westward motion towards Texas should continue through Monday. None of the reliable computer models develop 95L into a depression. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 95L on Sunday, if necessary.

Elsewhere in the tropics, we should keep an eye on the region to the east of South Carolina for possible development, as well as the western Caribbean. None of the reliable models is showing a tropical storm developing in the Atlantic over the coming week, though.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 95L.

Next post
I am on vacation for the coming week, and Dr. Rob Carver will be handling most or all of the blogging duties July 5 - July 12. One of us will be posting on July 4 if there is a major development to report.

Jeff Masters

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Hey there Xcool! :))

Everybody being good tonight?
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1453. Skyepony (Mod)
95L
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Quoting JLPR2:


I'm actually going to start wish-casting this one for Texas, sorry guys, Mexico took one already, your turn LOL!


HEY! and I liked you. :P Lol j/k
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Quoting JLPR2:


3:37am and I'm wide awake :\
LOL!

5:39pm here and i am tired... lol
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1450. JLPR2
Quoting swampliliy:
Good morning all!

Just got home from work and I got a WUmail from Caneaddict. Asked me to tell the blog he's doing okay, just won't be on till his 48hr ban is up.

If someone already posted this, well, now you know twice. :))


Good to know, I hope he is doing better, harsh time he is going through.
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Quoting drj27:
hopefully northwest florida want see any storms this year im praying we dont

You mean Panhandle country?
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1447. xcool
Sun Jul 4 03:34:27 EDT 2010
WHXX01 KWBC 040707

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0707 UTC SUN JUL 4 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962010) 20100704 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100704 0600 100704 1800 100705 0600 100705 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.5N 82.0W 19.5N 85.1W 21.2N 87.5W 22.9N 89.3W
BAMD 17.5N 82.0W 18.9N 83.9W 20.2N 85.5W 21.3N 86.9W
BAMM 17.5N 82.0W 19.0N 84.4W 20.4N 86.4W 21.7N 88.1W
LBAR 17.5N 82.0W 18.8N 83.9W 20.1N 85.5W 21.3N 86.8W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 35KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100706 0600 100707 0600 100708 0600 100709 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.1N 90.9W 25.8N 94.1W 26.4N 97.8W 26.2N 101.3W
BAMD 22.3N 88.2W 23.5N 90.7W 24.2N 93.6W 24.6N 96.3W
BAMM 22.9N 89.6W 24.5N 92.7W 25.5N 96.2W 26.0N 99.8W
LBAR 22.3N 87.9W 24.3N 89.9W 25.8N 91.8W 26.0N 93.8W
SHIP 40KTS 54KTS 66KTS 72KTS
DSHP 37KTS 51KTS 63KTS 34KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.5N LONCUR = 82.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 16.6N LONM12 = 79.0W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 15.9N LONM24 = 76.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


omgggg
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Skyepony:
00ZCMC is in rare form..Hurricanes for Houston, possibly NYC, with a third rolling through the Caribbean at the end of the run.


Yep equal opportunity destroyer. Looked like EURO might show something on the east coast as well after 192 hrs. Hard to tell. And both those models show something else behind 96l. Its getting busy.
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1445. xcool
JLPR2 i bet
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1444. xcool
swampliliy hey
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1443. JLPR2
Quoting AussieStorm:
Shouldn't everyone here be in bed except for me? Ain't it like 3-4am there?


3:37am and I'm wide awake :\
LOL!
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Good morning all!

Just got home from work and I got a WUmail from Caneaddict. Asked me to tell the blog he's doing okay, just won't be on till his 48hr ban is up.

If someone already posted this, well, now you know twice. :))
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1441. JLPR2
Convection displaced to the east of the center

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1440. drj27
hopefully northwest florida want see any storms this year im praying we dont
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1439. xcool
2.37 am here
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
N RL calls 96L
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Shouldn't everyone here be in bed except for me? Ain't it like 3-4am there?
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1436. xcool
opps
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1435. xcool
JLPR2 lol
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1434. xcool
i'm talk my friend who Professional-Met
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1433. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:
JLPR2 :0 .FUN WEEK A HEAD.


I'm actually going to start wish-casting this one for Texas, sorry guys, Mexico took one already, your turn LOL!
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1432. CJC111
A bite to eat, a beer, and a little sleep. Better rest soon or I'll blow something up that shouldn't be blown up tomorrow. Night all.
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1430. Skyepony (Mod)
00ZCMC is in rare form..Hurricanes for Houston, possibly NYC, with a third rolling through the Caribbean at the end of the run.
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1429. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:
NRL page, 96L


yeah, but I dont have anything for it LOL
I want a sat image :\
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1428. CJC111
Agree that it's too early on the track. That's the funny thing about weather. More than 12 hours out and the odds of accuracy drops dramatically.
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1427. xcool
JLPR2 :0 .FUN WEEK A HEAD.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1426. xcool
<<< LMAO I NAIL ITT I NEED A BEER NOW
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting AlexEmmett:
Update to blog rules

Every time someone brings up JFV they have pay the site 40 bucks and get a 36 hr ban
Quoting hcubed:


so when does your ban start?


Alex, since you brought his name up your the 1st to pay and get banned, lol
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1424. xcool
NRL page, 96L
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1423. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:
JLPR2 YOU MEANIN 1000 LOL


Well i could raise it to 99.99% XD
Who knows...
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1422. xcool
NHC PLZ DROP 95L NO HOPE
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1421. CJC111
Just a sidenote. Banning isn't of much use since a user can't be locked to an IP address. The JFV comments aren't as detracting from the blog as some of the derogatory and inflamatory comments. JFV is almost like tales of the Bell witch in Tennessee. Everyone's heard the ghost story but noone pays it much attention. It's almost amusing.
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1420. xcool
. btwntx08/ LOOK OUT OLD B WHAT YOU LMAO
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684


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1417. xcool
JLPR2 YOU MEANIN 1000 LOL
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1415. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:
CJC111 TOO EARLY


I agree, there's like a 95% that track will change LOL!
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1414. xcool
CJC111 TOO EARLY
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1413. JLPR2
Quoting wfyweather:


on wu tropics and navy page and the navy designates em.


I still dont see it on the navy page, was it on the backup page? that one seems to update faster than the standard one
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1412. CJC111
That looks like Alex's little sister in track.
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1411. hcubed
Quoting AlexEmmett:
Update to blog rules

Every time someone brings up JFV they have pay the site 40 bucks and get a 36 hr ban


so when does your ban start?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1410. xcool
i rigth at 200am
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting JLPR2:


WU has it, but I cant find it anywhere, well then again I dont have that many links LOL


on wu tropics and navy page and the navy designates em.
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1408. JLPR2
Quoting btwntx08:

zack where did u get this


WU has it, but I cant find it anywhere, well then again I dont have that many links LOL

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1406. JLPR2
The CMC seems to be spinning up the area near 35W


East of the Antilles here:


If that were to happen it would be the first storm to form in the Atlantic
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1405. xcool
dry air
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1404. CJC111
Too much wind up there, btwntx08?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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