Gulf of Mexico disturbance 95L worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:02 PM GMT on July 03, 2010

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A cold front that pushed off the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf Coast has stalled out over the waters immediately offshore. An area of low pressure, Invest 95L, has developed in the Gulf of Mexico, about 100 miles southeast of the Deepwater Horizon oil disaster. Satellite loops show that this low does have a broad surface circulation, but heavy thunderstorm activity is being limited by 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. Water Vapor satellite loops show that 95L is embedded in a large region of dry air associated with an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system, and this dry air will hinder 95L's development. The cold, dry air associated with this upper-level low is giving 95L a subtropical appearance, with the main heavy thunderstorm activity (to the south) located well away from the center of circulation. NHC is giving 95L a 20% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical depression by 2pm Monday. Wind shear is forecast to be in the 20 - 30 knot range Sunday through Monday, so any development of 95L should be slow. The disturbance is moving west at about 10 - 15 mph, and a general westward motion towards Texas should continue through Monday. None of the reliable computer models develop 95L into a depression. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 95L on Sunday, if necessary.

Elsewhere in the tropics, we should keep an eye on the region to the east of South Carolina for possible development, as well as the western Caribbean. None of the reliable models is showing a tropical storm developing in the Atlantic over the coming week, though.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 95L.

Next post
I am on vacation for the coming week, and Dr. Rob Carver will be handling most or all of the blogging duties July 5 - July 12. One of us will be posting on July 4 if there is a major development to report.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting kmanislander:
Good afternoon

The weather has finally turned very nasty here now. Gusty winds and rain. Looks like another wash out weekend.

UURRGGHH !!
You can blame that on the tropical wave over you guys, 12z ECMWF still takes it to a tropical storm in the BOC.
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4 areas we should watch.

1.95L

2.Area of convection at about 16N 76W

3.Area of convection at about 28N 71W

4.Area of convection at about 10N 58W
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Good afternoon

The weather has finally turned very nasty here now. Gusty winds and rain. Looks like another wash out weekend.

UURRGGHH !!
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Dry air staying to the N and NW (expect THAT won't change none) ...but it looks as if 95L is cutting off the dry air to it's SW

Link
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49. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting atmoaggie:
Guess it's time to break out the cyclogenesis/vacation for Dr. M statistics...



What a job..when more vacation days = more site traffic & money..life is sweet:)


Fresh ASCAT pass of part of 95L
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The biggest problem for 95L is that it is not vertically stacked. The 500mb center is west of Tampa, well to the east of the surface center. A zoomed-in visible loop shows this well.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Guess it's time to break out the cyclogenesis/vacation for Dr. M statistics...


ROFL! That's great!
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From what I'm seeing after looking at several graphs and maps from the CIMSS site is that if 95L does develop it will likely be subtropical in nature rather than tropical.
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44. Skyepony (Mod)
& they're off & racing..In the model quest to see who can best project 95L.. AEMN (National Weather Service Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)~GFS fed) & AVNO starts well with 25.8nm error after the 1st day.. the rest have done not so well.. NOGAPS 59, CMC 77, BAMD 117, OFCL 139, BAMM & LGEM 146, LBAR 169, CLP5 203.
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I say the development will be in the W Caribbean not in the BOC Condition are right for it there the GOM is not in good condition from the effects of Alex so I sat this one will move further North and East than Alex so in long term landfall between Texas and Alabama the Islands in the Caribbean to be affected would be Cayman Cuba and northern Yucatan the outer AOI near 45/50W will enter the Caribbean and may develop I expect this one to effect Florida but first going through Haiti and Cuba 95L maybe develops into a TD or weak TS or STD and STS and landfall in NE Texas and possible System Off US E coast maybe SUB Tropical if anything
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95L is getting a bit more organized
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Quoting jlp09550:
Interesting update..

it just confirmed everything everyone on here has been talking about.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
watch 14n/77w

It's starting to affect me now with gusty winds and intermittent rain.
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who inks alex is one of the largest catagory 2 hurricanes?
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Quoting stormpetrol:

despite the disorganized convection in that area on the visible I see a hint of a weak small circulation.
Some broad cyclonic turning is evident on MIMIC-TPW with the wave in the central Caribbean. If convection continues to persist I expect it to earn recognition from the NHC sometime within the next 24 hours.

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Quoting will45:


Just my opinion ive been wrong before and likely will be wrong again.
It's my opinion too at this point, but just throwing out the possibilities.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
watch 14n/77w

despite the disorganized convection in that area on the visible I see a hint of a weak small circulation.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I wouldn't be surprised to see the area in the central Caribbean develop into a TS in the GOM in a couple days. All is speculation at this point, but it definitely is a decent possibility.


Just my opinion ive been wrong before and likely will be wrong again.
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Very interesting cloud signature to the SW quadrant of the convection associated with 95L. I'm also noticing convection starting to cover the COC.

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Guess it's time to break out the cyclogenesis/vacation for Dr. M statistics...

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Here are the size comparisons for hurricanes making landfall in the Western Gulf, if anybody missed it. The images were corrupted on the last blog so here's the link if they get corrupted again: Link

Emily 2005 (July cat. 3):


Rita 2005 (September cat. 3):


Dolly 2008 (July strong cat. 1):


Ike 2008 (September cat. 2):


Alex 2010 (July cat. 2?):
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Quoting will45:

TD maybe but i doubt a TS
I wouldn't be surprised to see the area in the central Caribbean develop into a TS in the GOM in a couple days. All is speculation at this point, but it definitely is a decent possibility.
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Interesting update..
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Quoting neonlazer:
Yep, I think thats our target..55W 10N also looks interesting as well
Agreed. Both areas have a decent chance of development in the next coming days.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I disagree.

TD maybe but i doubt a TS
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I disagree.



i 2nd that
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Quoting stormpetrol:
watch 14n/77w
Yep, I think thats our target..55W 10N also looks interesting as well
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Quoting will45:
he said no TS for coming week which is understandable
I disagree.
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watch 14n/77w
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he said no TS for coming week which is understandable
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Quoting JeffMasters:
I am on vacation for the coming week


Oh great, all hell is about to break loose
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ECMWF has development in 120 hours. The 8th, or Thursday.

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Quoting Levi32:
Here comes the infamous vacation....lol.

Thanks Dr. Masters.
LOL.
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Enjoy Dr.Masters, the blog is great hands with Dr.Carver.
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Winds up 5kt

AL 95 2010070318 BEST 0 274N 876W 25 1013 LO
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anyone notice shear level is falling again across the carrb makes me wonder what will happen to the wave near the windward come next week
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Quoting Levi32:
Here comes the infamous vacation....lol.

Thanks Dr. Masters.


Yes I was just thinking that...lol.
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The upper level ridge currently developing adjacent to the SW Caribbean is forecasted to begin to advect with the tropical wave by the central Caribbean as per the GFS 12z 200-850mb vertical shear forecast. At this point in time, 60 hours, the tropical wave is over the Yucatan and here you can see the anticyclone there too.

GFS 12z 200-850mb vertical shear forecast.

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may be thing will pick up big time now that dr m is going on vacation
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? Dr. Masters, the CMC, GFS, and ECMWF all develop a tropical system in the Caribbean this upcoming week.
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Oh no! Not a vacation! That is why the NHC upped the development odds.
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Hope the doc has a great vacation. Perhaps the computer models should factor his vacations into cyclonegenesis... =)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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