Gulf of Mexico disturbance 95L worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:02 PM GMT on July 03, 2010

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A cold front that pushed off the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf Coast has stalled out over the waters immediately offshore. An area of low pressure, Invest 95L, has developed in the Gulf of Mexico, about 100 miles southeast of the Deepwater Horizon oil disaster. Satellite loops show that this low does have a broad surface circulation, but heavy thunderstorm activity is being limited by 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. Water Vapor satellite loops show that 95L is embedded in a large region of dry air associated with an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system, and this dry air will hinder 95L's development. The cold, dry air associated with this upper-level low is giving 95L a subtropical appearance, with the main heavy thunderstorm activity (to the south) located well away from the center of circulation. NHC is giving 95L a 20% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical depression by 2pm Monday. Wind shear is forecast to be in the 20 - 30 knot range Sunday through Monday, so any development of 95L should be slow. The disturbance is moving west at about 10 - 15 mph, and a general westward motion towards Texas should continue through Monday. None of the reliable computer models develop 95L into a depression. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 95L on Sunday, if necessary.

Elsewhere in the tropics, we should keep an eye on the region to the east of South Carolina for possible development, as well as the western Caribbean. None of the reliable models is showing a tropical storm developing in the Atlantic over the coming week, though.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 95L.

Next post
I am on vacation for the coming week, and Dr. Rob Carver will be handling most or all of the blogging duties July 5 - July 12. One of us will be posting on July 4 if there is a major development to report.

Jeff Masters

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i wounder oh us got banned from last night
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Quoting TXCaneCrasher:


I hope CaneAddict is okay today since he lost his father last night. He really let the language fly at BaltimoreBird last night. Hope he spent time with his family


Did he get banned? I don't know how you would know if someone got banned or not....Hopefully he is having a better day today. Was kinda wild last night...
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..smokin hot 18Z


18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest95
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts

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Quoting Hurricanes101:
Um Charley came before Frances and Jeanne

alphabetical order



lol... i cant believe someone said that... lol
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Quoting TXCaneCrasher:


I hope CaneAddict is okay today since he lost his father last night. He really let the language fly at BaltimoreBird last night. Hope he spent time with his family


That's horrible. I'm guessing all the posts are deleted by now? I guess it's really not my business to know what went on, but I hope he's alright.
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Quoting ryang:


yup....CaneAddict got banned, probably for good too


Wow, really? I liked to read his posts and they were almost always tame. What happened last night??
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Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop
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Quoting Tazmanian:
in fac it looks like have of the bloger from last night got banned


I hope CaneAddict is okay today since he lost his father last night. He really let the language fly at BaltimoreBird last night. Hope he spent time with his family
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Quoting Tazmanian:
in fac it looks like have of the bloger from last night got banned


yup....CaneAddict got banned, probably for good too
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Quoting FLdewey:
I'm not a meteorologist, but I DID stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.
and that is worth a lot more...
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
Um Charley came before Frances and Jeanne

alphabetical order


mind=blown
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So much for the "GIGO" theories this am here..





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Quoting TXCaneCrasher:


ha-ha...ok. I was just wondering since I am new to this blog. He seemed to quote quite a bit during Alex. Thanks for the info.

I think the only genuine meterologist on here is Weather456 and StormW comes in a close second but several on here know just as much without the degree.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
Um Charley came before Frances and Jeanne

alphabetical order
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Up in Dr.Masters comments, Reedzone, he said "...thunderstorm activity is being limited by 15 - 20 knots of wind shear." and "...shear is forecast to be in the 20 - 30 knot range Sunday through Monday..."
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Quoting btwntx08:

this would be crazy if an another system comes in just over a week


Yeah, sort of like it was with Frances and Jeanne on the FL east coast in 2004.
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Quoting reedzone:


Nope, just a normal blogger :)


Thanks, I just noticed you commented quite a bit during Alex and had pretty good responses.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Rapid-Fire satellite imagery shows that convection has began to slowly cover the ill-defined circulation of 95L.



cool
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Quoting TXCaneCrasher:


ha-ha...ok. I was just wondering since I am new to this blog. He seemed to quote quite a bit during Alex. Thanks for the info.

For future reference, a small amount of people here are actually meteorologists, with the exception of StormW, Weather456, and a few others.
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Rapid-Fire satellite imagery shows that convection has began to slowly cover the ill-defined circulation of 95L.
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Quoting hunkerdown:
god no...


ha-ha...ok. I was just wondering since I am new to this blog. He seemed to quote quite a bit during Alex. Thanks for the info.

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in fac it looks like have of the bloger from last night got banned
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Quoting TXCaneCrasher:


Reedzone, are you a Meteorologist?


Nope, just a normal blogger :)
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Quoting TXCaneCrasher:


Reedzone, are you a Meteorologist?
god no...
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Quoting reedzone:
Just noticed that wind shear over 95L is marginally favorable (15-20 knots. This should start slow organization, in which we are seeing. I don't know why Dr. Masters said 20-30 knots when the wind shear is 15-20 knots right now over the system. Doesn't matter cause he's going on vacation, which means Bonnie will be coming soon :)
please read people...he said it is under 15-20 kts of shear now and is FORECAST to be under 20-30 Sunday and Monday.
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It looks like the center of 95L has relocated. The original swirl went south to about 27.1N, the bigger one is now at about 27.9N, both at about 87.9W.

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/index.php?region=ngulf&channel=vis
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Quoting Levi32:


Likely as far south or farther south than Alex. The ridge over the central-eastern US still doesn't want to go away, and this system is beginning development farther west than Alex did, which also argues for a track farther south.
Exactly.
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Quoting btwntx08:

i aint freaking out lol just watching the model run
Lol, I was just messing around with you.
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Quoting Levi32:


Likely as far south or farther south than Alex. The ridge over the central-eastern US still doesn't want to go away, and this system is beginning development farther west than Alex did, which also argues for a track farther south.


That's what I was thinking.
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Quoting KarenRei:


Nah, seasons always start out aiming things at Mexico / Texas. They shift east later in the season.


Yeah, funny though because Rita and Ike were both in September and those went to Texas instead of more east. Just shows you never know what they are gonna do....
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Quoting reedzone:
Just noticed that wind shear over 95L is marginally favorable (15-20 knots. This should start slow organization, in which we are seeing. I don't know why Dr. Masters said 20-30 knots when the wind shear is 15-20 knots right now over the system. Doesn't matter cause he's going on vacation, which means Bonnie will be coming soon :)


Reedzone, are you a Meteorologist?
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Quoting Inactivity:


Similar track to Alex?


Likely as far south or farther south than Alex. The ridge over the central-eastern US still doesn't want to go away, and this system is beginning development farther west than Alex did, which also argues for a track farther south.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Guess it's time to break out the cyclogenesis/vacation for Dr. M statistics...



Masters needs to make a copy of that and stick it on his wall. Good one!
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Quoting KarenRei:


Nah, seasons always start out aiming things at Mexico / Texas. They shift east later in the season.


2008 for example.
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


This may be a Mexico/South Texas year....


Nah, seasons always start out aiming things at Mexico / Texas. They shift east later in the season.
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Just noticed that wind shear over 95L is marginally favorable (15-20 knots. This should start slow organization, in which we are seeing. I don't know why Dr. Masters said 20-30 knots when the wind shear is 15-20 knots right now over the system. Doesn't matter cause he's going on vacation, which means Bonnie will be coming soon :)
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Quoting btwntx08:

yea i know about the track as well i was showing how strong it show it on that run...i will look at the track more
Don't freak out yet, lol.
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Closed but weak and elongated circulation associated with the wave just off of Africa:

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Quoting Inactivity:
Similar track to Alex?
The set-up is nearly identical to how Alex developed and tracked with the build-up of heat in the Caribbean and the ridge by the S.E US. With this tropical wave it will likely move further south than Alex though.
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Quoting btwntx08:
lastest ecmwf has a landfall farther north and is near the border as a weak system at hr 168
Are you a tropical system magnet?
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Quoting btwntx08:
lastest ecmwf has a landfall farther north and is near the border as a weak system at hr 168


This may be a Mexico/South Texas year....
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Quoting btwntx08:
lastest ecmwf has a landfall farther north and is near the border as a weak system at hr 168
Intensity that far out and the fact that you're using a global model makes it rather useless. What you have to pay attention to is the track rather than the intensity.
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Quoting btwntx08:
lastest ecmwf has a landfall farther north and is near the border as a weak system at hr 168


Similar track to Alex?
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Quoting kmanislander:
Good afternoon

The weather has finally turned very nasty here now. Gusty winds and rain. Looks like another wash out weekend.

UURRGGHH !!
You can blame that on the tropical wave over you guys, 12z ECMWF still takes it to a tropical storm in the BOC.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.