Gulf of Mexico disturbance 95L worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:02 PM GMT on July 03, 2010

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A cold front that pushed off the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf Coast has stalled out over the waters immediately offshore. An area of low pressure, Invest 95L, has developed in the Gulf of Mexico, about 100 miles southeast of the Deepwater Horizon oil disaster. Satellite loops show that this low does have a broad surface circulation, but heavy thunderstorm activity is being limited by 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. Water Vapor satellite loops show that 95L is embedded in a large region of dry air associated with an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system, and this dry air will hinder 95L's development. The cold, dry air associated with this upper-level low is giving 95L a subtropical appearance, with the main heavy thunderstorm activity (to the south) located well away from the center of circulation. NHC is giving 95L a 20% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical depression by 2pm Monday. Wind shear is forecast to be in the 20 - 30 knot range Sunday through Monday, so any development of 95L should be slow. The disturbance is moving west at about 10 - 15 mph, and a general westward motion towards Texas should continue through Monday. None of the reliable computer models develop 95L into a depression. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 95L on Sunday, if necessary.

Elsewhere in the tropics, we should keep an eye on the region to the east of South Carolina for possible development, as well as the western Caribbean. None of the reliable models is showing a tropical storm developing in the Atlantic over the coming week, though.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 95L.

Next post
I am on vacation for the coming week, and Dr. Rob Carver will be handling most or all of the blogging duties July 5 - July 12. One of us will be posting on July 4 if there is a major development to report.

Jeff Masters

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On radar they look exactly like a mobile triangle
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Quoting StormW:
Good afternoon!
Good afternoon Storm.
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Three possible tornadic cells in South Florida. Located just west of Homestead.
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150. IKE
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
149. IKE
Quoting Levi32:
The two websites show the exact same ECMWF model. There is NO difference between the two except how the data is displayed. Raleigh displays isobars in 2mb increments which gives a more detailed picture of the tropics. ECMWF does show development in the Bay of Campeche on the 12z run and it is evident on both sites.


That's the difference.

Still...the run I saw weakens the low as it heads into northern Mexico.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting MississippiWx:


That website for the EURO is not very sensitive and really only picks up on what it thinks will be a rather strong system.
Yup. There are 5mb discrepancies between isobars on the one IKE posted rather than 2mb discrepancies between isobars on the one I posted. Overall, mine is better because you can see the intensity better. But keep in mind they are the same model.
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147. IKE
Quoting MississippiWx:


That website for the EURO is not very sensitive and really only picks up on what it thinks will be a rather strong system.


That's the difference. I don't care for the ECMWF runs on this website.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
The two websites show the exact same ECMWF model. There is NO difference between the two except how the data is displayed. Raleigh displays isobars in 2mb increments which gives a more detailed picture of the tropics. ECMWF does show development in the Bay of Campeche on the 12z run and it is evident on both sites.
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The ECMWF continues to show tropical cyclone development in the BOC.

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For now, the area in the western Caribbean is just a glorified monsoon trough which has moved farther north than it is supposed to. If a low can form along this boundary, then there may be a chance at development before it reaches the Yucatan, but it will be a slow process.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



yes my bad but how evere i was talking about the wave be hide it
Well I think we'll see an invest out of the wave that I just mentioned that is in the central Caribbean rather than the one over the lesser Antilles first.
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Quoting IKE:
12Z ECMWF...not much through July 13th


That website for the EURO is not very sensitive and really only picks up on what it thinks will be a rather strong system.
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140. IKE
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Really? The 1005mb feature to the NW of the Yucatan tip is the tropical wave currently in the central Caribbean.

ECMWF 12z 96 hours.



That's a different set of frames then the model run shown on this website.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
..smokin hot 18Z


18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest95
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I think you mean 96L, right? Well at this point in time I think we'll see 96L either tonight or tomorrow from the tropical wave associated with the trough of low pressure in the central Caribbean. So far, convection has been persistent and broad cyclonic rotation is also evident on satellite imagery and MIMIC-TPW. Also, there is some elongated 850mb vorticity to the east and west of the system.




yes my bad but how evere i was talking about the wave be hide it
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137. IKE
Looks like that moisture/clouds in the western Caribbean is getting drawn NW toward the GOM.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
136. xcool
680
WHXX01 KWBC 031810
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1810 UTC SAT JUL 3 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952010) 20100703 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100703 1800 100704 0600 100704 1800 100705 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.4N 87.6W 27.9N 89.2W 28.9N 90.2W 29.9N 91.2W
BAMD 27.4N 87.6W 26.8N 89.0W 26.7N 90.3W 26.9N 91.5W
BAMM 27.4N 87.6W 27.4N 89.1W 27.9N 90.2W 28.5N 91.1W
LBAR 27.4N 87.6W 27.0N 89.1W 27.1N 90.6W 27.4N 92.0W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 32KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 29KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100705 1800 100706 1800 100707 1800 100708 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 31.0N 91.9W 33.4N 93.2W 35.0N 95.6W 36.3N 98.4W
BAMD 27.3N 92.6W 28.2N 94.8W 29.1N 97.3W 29.4N 100.5W
BAMM 29.1N 91.9W 30.7N 93.7W 32.2N 96.4W 33.2N 99.0W
LBAR 28.0N 93.1W 29.1N 95.2W 30.7N 97.3W 32.8N 97.7W
SHIP 34KTS 34KTS 38KTS 36KTS
DSHP 28KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.4N LONCUR = 87.6W DIRCUR = 235DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 28.2N LONM12 = 86.3W DIRM12 = 240DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 29.2N LONM24 = 84.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting IKE:
12Z ECMWF...not much through July 13th
Really? The 1005mb feature to the NW of the Yucatan tip is the tropical wave currently in the central Caribbean.

ECMWF 12z 96 hours.

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134. IKE
6-10 day temp/precip outlook


8-14 day temp/precip outlook
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting Tazmanian:




i think that wave will be 95L soon
I think you mean 96L, right? Well at this point in time I think we'll see 96L either tonight or tomorrow from the tropical wave associated with the trough of low pressure in the central Caribbean. So far, convection has been persistent and broad cyclonic rotation is also evident on satellite imagery and MIMIC-TPW. Also, there is some elongated 850mb vorticity to the east and west of the system.

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132. IKE
12Z ECMWF...not much through July 13th
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
GOES-12 Atlantic Low Cloud Image
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ooope my bad
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Quoting Tazmanian:




i think that wave will be 95L soon


you mean 96L since we already have 95L in the gulf right now
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Quoting Tazmanian:




i think that wave will be 95L soon


96L
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AL 95 Gulf Of Mexico - Water Vapor Loop
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
This wave is displaying one of the best inverted V signatures in a tropical wave I've seen so far this season. Thus, some broad cyclonic rotation is evident using satellite imagery or MIMIC-TPW.







i think that wave will be 95L soon
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Thanks Jeff - did not expect you to post this weekend. Please take at least a couple of days off. Hot and very humid in the Florida Keys, I'm staying off the main highway for the next 48 hrs.
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Quoting truecajun:
Hello everyone. so are the models showing that the low in the gulf will stay south of the oil looping around it then head north for LA. I'm hoping that's what they are showing. I'd hate for them to have to pack up.


Dynamic models show it right over the site, but currently I woudlnt worry about it.

Just looks like a little tropical moisture moving inland.
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This wave is displaying one of the best inverted V signatures in a tropical wave I've seen so far this season. Thus, some broad cyclonic rotation is evident using satellite imagery or MIMIC-TPW.



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Quoting Patrap:
Dvorak shows some improvement as well.






It cant last for long.
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Ocean Heat Content & Forecast Track AL 95



Ocean Heat Content & Forecast Track

Daily Oceanic Heat Content or Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) estimates were being provided by Gustavo Goni at the Physical Oceanography Division of the NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory located in Miami, FL until July of 2008. Since that time the OHC has been provided by J. Cummings of the Naval Research Lab and is calculated from fields generated by the Naval Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation system (NCODA; Cummings 2005). The spatial grid spacing is 0.2 Latitude x 0.2 Longitude and the units of the estimates are given as kJ/cm^2. A detailed description of how the product is created, product archives and TCHP in other regions can be found at Gustavo's web discussing TCHP . A similar method is employed using the NCODA fields. Tropical cyclone forecasts, as described above, are plotted on values of ocean heat content for reference.

For tropical cyclones in favorable environmental conditions for intensification (i.e., vertical wind shear less than 15 kt, mid-level relative humidity >50 %, and warm SSTs [i.e., >28.5C])and with intensities less than 80kt, values of ocean heat content greater than 50 kJ/cm^2 have been shown to promote greater rates of intensity change.


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looks like another inverted surface trough west of tpa area,maybe 2 invests in the GOM soon???
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Hello everyone. so are the models showing that the low in the gulf will stay south of the oil looping around it then head north for LA. I'm hoping that's what they are showing. I'd hate for them to have to pack up.
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Dvorak shows some improvement as well.



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What happened with CaneAddicts father? I'm not sure I'd be on a weather blog if a family member had just died, but maybe that's just me.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
yup he been lock up

Link


wow....ok.
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Quoting FLdewey:
Last night was a show that's for sure. BaltimoreBird is just this year's TropicalAmanda. Most likely the same person... they make fun chew toys during slow times. The best part is people on this board who freak out and come to the defense of these fake accounts.


I miss all the excitement.
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glad someone picked up on that lol
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Jeesum..

Let's belay the Banned on the run crowd and roll some 18Z info .

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Also, thoughts and Prayers for CaneAddict and family.
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Last night was a show that's for sure. BaltimoreBird is just this year's TropicalAmanda. Most likely the same person... they make fun chew toys during slow times. The best part is people on this board who freak out and come to the defense of these fake accounts.
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yup he been lock up

Link
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http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html

Looks like shear is soon to hit 95L
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i wounder oh us got banned from last night
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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