Gulf of Mexico disturbance 95L worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:02 PM GMT on July 03, 2010

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A cold front that pushed off the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf Coast has stalled out over the waters immediately offshore. An area of low pressure, Invest 95L, has developed in the Gulf of Mexico, about 100 miles southeast of the Deepwater Horizon oil disaster. Satellite loops show that this low does have a broad surface circulation, but heavy thunderstorm activity is being limited by 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. Water Vapor satellite loops show that 95L is embedded in a large region of dry air associated with an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system, and this dry air will hinder 95L's development. The cold, dry air associated with this upper-level low is giving 95L a subtropical appearance, with the main heavy thunderstorm activity (to the south) located well away from the center of circulation. NHC is giving 95L a 20% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical depression by 2pm Monday. Wind shear is forecast to be in the 20 - 30 knot range Sunday through Monday, so any development of 95L should be slow. The disturbance is moving west at about 10 - 15 mph, and a general westward motion towards Texas should continue through Monday. None of the reliable computer models develop 95L into a depression. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 95L on Sunday, if necessary.

Elsewhere in the tropics, we should keep an eye on the region to the east of South Carolina for possible development, as well as the western Caribbean. None of the reliable models is showing a tropical storm developing in the Atlantic over the coming week, though.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 95L.

Next post
I am on vacation for the coming week, and Dr. Rob Carver will be handling most or all of the blogging duties July 5 - July 12. One of us will be posting on July 4 if there is a major development to report.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting mrsalagranny:
Do you think it isgoing through the channel and then go a little further North?And thank you for the compliment.
LOL
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Quoting StadiumEffect:
Hey all. I was woken up just now by a pretty impressive squall. Currently it is pouring rain here on the west side, and winds are gusting to about 30mph, thanks to our new Caribbean disturbance.
Heavy rain in East End too but gusting to 46 mph.
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Do you think it isgoing through the channel and then go a little further North?And thank you for the compliment.
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Hey all. I was woken up just now by a pretty impressive squall. Currently it is pouring rain here on the west side, and winds are gusting to about 30mph, thanks to our new Caribbean disturbance.
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Good morning Storm.Ugh up too early with my Grandaughter.She got up at 4:00 this morning.I see we do indeed have 96l.I hope the high stays in place over us.
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Convection is dying down a bit on the northern side of the Caribbean system.



.. and here's the GOM low. Not much to see.



Goodnight bloggers.
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Quoting StormW:
Good morning!

I see we have 96L...why am I not surprised.
Good morning ! Lots of wet stuff and gusty winds down here.
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1494. surfmom
I'm an EARLY bird this AM -- Geeze that mothering instinct NEVER goes away. DiveSon's (Diver/EMT) contract was up yesterday, but was unable to leave the Vessels he's been assigned to (The Orion & The MightyServant III) working by the DeepwaterHorizon Well - rough seas made transport to the mainland impossible - least yesterday - I don't think it's looking great today either. Got a stinking feeling he's going to be on the GOMEX till at least Tuesday - doesn't seem the weather wants to cooperate

It's been impossible for the vessels to work collecting oil in these rough seas - just futile

Not making my day to see 96l muscling up either - by the time things calm down out there... we have another storm churning up the GOMEX
OIL IS NOT WELL

imagine this w/8footers
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Quoting IKE:
High pressure is the USA's best friend....

SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT SUN JUL 04 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CEDAR KEY...FLORIDA
TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 27N90W. THE LOW WILL TRACK N-NW ACROSS THE
GULF AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SE LOUISIANA COAST OVERNIGHT
SUN NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. HIGH PRES CENTERED OFF THE U.S.
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BUILD A RIDGE SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL MON NIGHT
AND PASS INTO THE SW GULF TUE. A 1006 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 21N93W BY TUE NIGHT AND
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY W-NW TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST THROUGH THU.

Heavy rain and 38 mph wind in Grand Cayman.
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1492. IKE
High pressure is the USA's best friend....

SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT SUN JUL 04 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CEDAR KEY...FLORIDA
TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 27N90W. THE LOW WILL TRACK N-NW ACROSS THE
GULF AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SE LOUISIANA COAST OVERNIGHT
SUN NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. HIGH PRES CENTERED OFF THE U.S.
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BUILD A RIDGE SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL MON NIGHT
AND PASS INTO THE SW GULF TUE. A 1006 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 21N93W BY TUE NIGHT AND
SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY W-NW TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST THROUGH THU.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Morning Ike- just got in from work a little bit ago and saw I had a WUmail from CaneAddict. He asked me to pass the word that he's doing okay. Sitting in the Penalty Box for 48.

If you already knew this, apologies. Just wanted to tell someone who would be on today so all knew.

Have a happy and safe Independence Day.

Harry :))
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1490. IKE
00Z ECMWF sends em to Mexico...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1489. IKE
Quoting skkippboo:
Jeez, I gotta go to bed too, maybe a little red wine to help bring on the zzzz's.



Sure....Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860


Look 96l want to be Alex2 same track on models.
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1487. IKE
Quoting IKE:
Western Caribbean blob.....my thoughts....

(1)Designated 96L by 8 am CDST Sunday...WU bloggers break out Jewel Sweet cigars with the birth of a new invest.
(2)BAMS suite shows a WNW track into northern Mexico or southern Texas.
(3)SHIPS model shows it as a 100 kt. system on it's initial run.
(4)Florida casters think it will get pulled north and then NNE by a passing trough.
(5)Numerous fights/bans on Dr. Masters blog.
(6)Numerous bloggers post every models track with frame by frame discussions, even at 3 in the morning.


I was close.....looks like Mexico's year.....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Jeez, I gotta go to bed too, maybe a little red wine to help bring on the zzzz's.
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Quoting xcool:


Please tell that computer model to stop pointing that thing at me. That's what I said about Alex, and he just missed us to the South.
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1484. JLPR2
Well then, night! to both of you, I'll go to bed eventually LOL!
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1483. xcool
me to i'm go bed to
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1482. xcool
yeah ;))))
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1479. xcool
anticyclone at 60w i need 66 eyes
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1478. xcool
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1477. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:
KEEP EYE ON 60W & anticyclone MOVE TO 96L


yeah, soon we'll have to watch everything :P
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1476. xcool
KEEP EYE ON 60W & anticyclone MOVE TO 96L
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1475. xcool
AL, 96, 2010070406, , BEST, 0, 175N, 820W, 25, 1011, DB, 34
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Night everyone. Enjoy your 4th.
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1473. xcool
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1472. xcool
DAM
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1470. xcool
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al962010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201007040705
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
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1469. xcool
btwntx08 20K NOT BAD
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1466. xcool
LMAO
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting JLPR2:


haha! Sorry :3


Lol. No problem. :) I don't want Mexico to get hit again either. Been there done that. It no fun having a target on your forehead.
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1464. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting AussieStorm:

This is interesting???
Link





So is this
Link
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This is interesting???
Link

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Quoting JLPR2:


Good to know, I hope he is doing better, harsh time he is going through.


Yep- it's a tough road. Been there with both Mom and Dad.

Everybody has to go thru it, but you never expect it.
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1460. drj27
yes im in ft.walton beach
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1459. JLPR2
Quoting homelesswanderer:


HEY! and I liked you. :P Lol j/k


haha! Sorry :3
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1458. JLPR2
Quoting AussieStorm:

5:39pm here and i am tired... lol


LOL send some of that over there so I may go to sleep XD
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1457. xcool
swampliliy YEAH GOOD.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1456. xcool
i have bad feel about 96L JUST LIKE LAST storm
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1455. JLPR2
This one seems to be getting ready to be another big one, I mean size wise, since only the east half has convection, imagine once the western half fires up :S

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Hey there Xcool! :))

Everybody being good tonight?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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