Gulf of Mexico disturbance 95L worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:02 PM GMT on July 03, 2010

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A cold front that pushed off the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf Coast has stalled out over the waters immediately offshore. An area of low pressure, Invest 95L, has developed in the Gulf of Mexico, about 100 miles southeast of the Deepwater Horizon oil disaster. Satellite loops show that this low does have a broad surface circulation, but heavy thunderstorm activity is being limited by 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. Water Vapor satellite loops show that 95L is embedded in a large region of dry air associated with an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system, and this dry air will hinder 95L's development. The cold, dry air associated with this upper-level low is giving 95L a subtropical appearance, with the main heavy thunderstorm activity (to the south) located well away from the center of circulation. NHC is giving 95L a 20% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical depression by 2pm Monday. Wind shear is forecast to be in the 20 - 30 knot range Sunday through Monday, so any development of 95L should be slow. The disturbance is moving west at about 10 - 15 mph, and a general westward motion towards Texas should continue through Monday. None of the reliable computer models develop 95L into a depression. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 95L on Sunday, if necessary.

Elsewhere in the tropics, we should keep an eye on the region to the east of South Carolina for possible development, as well as the western Caribbean. None of the reliable models is showing a tropical storm developing in the Atlantic over the coming week, though.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 95L.

Next post
I am on vacation for the coming week, and Dr. Rob Carver will be handling most or all of the blogging duties July 5 - July 12. One of us will be posting on July 4 if there is a major development to report.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting ElConando:
Ground here is already fairly saturated in my area of S FLA. Only worry would be if the Canal would overflow. The drainage systems here are very good.
Lol. I'm in Brickell right now and I'm expecting flooding, some nasty storms coming our way.



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Ground here is already fairly saturated in my area of S FLA. Only worry would be if the Canal would overflow. The drainage systems here are very good.
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Quoting xcool:
watch wave near Jamaica .... increasing convection...


12z Canadian
I've been on it all day, also am watching the area by the lesser Antilles.
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AOI/XX/XX
MARK
XXN/XXW
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AOI/XX/XX
MARK
17.7N/79.3W
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199. xcool
watch wave near Jamaica .... increasing convection...


12z Canadian
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
INV/95/L
MARK
27.8N/83.5W
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18z NAM takes the western Caribbean AOI through a track very similar to Alex, but with much lesser intensity. It takes it through northern Belize as what seems to be a weak tropical storm or strong tropical depression. Regardless, take the NAM with a grain of salt.

18z NAM 60 hours.
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Can any one in N. Fla. tell me if the weather looks good in Daytona for the race tonight. Thanks from miserable Arkansas!
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wind shear is 5kt overe the wave




this could be come 96L vary soon

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
KEEPEROFTHEGATE
This comment has been removed for violating the Community Standards.


That was fast.
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XXX
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now the wave be hid has 5kt of wind shear overe it




we may see 96L vary soon from this wave

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Quoting MississippiWx:
Through 24hrs, the 18z NAM isn't too impressed with the disturbed weather in the W Caribbean or 95L:

If you look hard enough, there actually might be a little spin in that model blob.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



that is not a wind shear map


It is a wind shear chart for the North Atlantic,where the line ends is how low or high the wind shear is.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



that is not a wind shear map
Yes it is. That graph posted is a comparison of average shear across the basin compared to current shear. It isn't a current shear map but rather an anomaly.
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Is everything opening up shop in the GOM? I hope this doesn't continue all season long.
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Quoting Inactivity:
Wind shear

Wind shear VERY LIGHT in the Atlantic.



that is not a wind shear map
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Quoting Tazmanian:
i no how too get 95L feeling better


RIP 95L RIP 95L now do you feel better


You just doomed us all.
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Wind shear

Wind shear VERY LIGHT in the Atlantic.
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Quoting Hurricanman:
It looks like the center of 95L has relocated. The original swirl went south to about 27.1N, the bigger one is now at about 27.9N, both at about 87.9W.

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/index.php?region=ngulf&channel=vis


It's still kicking out a lot of dry air at the base of those thunderheads.
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Loop eddy current right where 95L is trying to pull things together. Note that this 120 hour forecast calls for two stacked loop eddies in the GOM centered around 87W. We don't really need that just now.

Loop eddies - WAVCIS Forecast
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i no how too get 95L feeling better


RIP 95L RIP 95L now do you feel better
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Quoting MrstormX:
95L not looking to healthy.
This is the best it has ever looked. Convection begun to cover the COC but lower level outflow was noted which means convection will likely begin to die down.
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NOAA ADDS GOM Viz loop
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95L not looking to healthy.
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i think will see 96 and 97L soon
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135 MiamiHurricanes09 "[...] ECMWF 12z 96 hours."
159 aspectre "And the 1013 Low looks like the wave currently off the African coast that KarenRei pointed out as having 'closed but weak and elongated circulation' on the ASCAT."

On second look, probably not. Too far south and not far enough west for 4days from now.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
after the quality control at CIRA, ASCAT looks like this:

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Quoting mikatnight:


Masters needs to make a copy of that and stick it on his wall. Good one!
Haha, he should!

Here it is, Dr. M

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Quoting MississippiWx:


Yeah, but it had been pointing out an area of surface low pressure in that area by this time frame on previous runs.
Well after all it is the NAM, not the best model for determining cyclogenesis. I've been paying attention to the ECMWF with this area considering how well it did with Alex, plus the set-up between Alex and this system is nearly identical, so the ECMWF is expected to do well.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Well it isn't going to develop in that period of time. It will take at least 3-5 days for that system to develop, very similar to Alex.


Yeah, but it had been pointing out an area of surface low pressure in that area by this time frame on previous runs.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Through 24hrs, the 18z NAM isn't too impressed with the disturbed weather in the W Caribbean or 95L:

Well it isn't going to develop in that period of time. It will take at least 3-5 days for that system to develop, very similar to Alex.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It's over the lesser Antilles right now.


I thought by the look of that thing it would have fired up right away.
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Through 24hrs, the 18z NAM isn't too impressed with the disturbed weather in the W Caribbean or 95L:

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It's so amazing to see one of these tails develop right before our eyes, baby feeder bands and everything. Rarely would I describe a potential system as being "cute," but that's what I see in 95L.

Click for animation file ...

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341
fxus62 kmfl 031842
afdmfl


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
242 PM EDT Sat Jul 3 2010


Discussion...a very diffuse frontal boundary currently stretches
from the Atlantic, across the Lake Okeechobee region, and into the
Gulf of Mexico with a very moist airmass found along and ahead of
the boundary. Precipitable waters are currently running from 2.2 to 2.3" per GPS
ipw. An upper low is also currently over the northwest Gulf of Mexico
providing some upper divergence to S Florida. This has lead, and will
continue to produce a very wet afternoon with numerous to
widespread rain showers/thunderstorms and rain across the area. Sunday the weak boundary is
expected to lift north as the ridge over the Middle Atlantic States
shifts east and the surface low over the northern Gulf moves northwest
toward Louisiana, however precipitable waters are still expected to be at or above 2",
and with strong diurnal heating numerous storms can be expected.
The steering flow will remain SW while the surface flow will remain
east... this will allow storms to affect the interior and both
coasts. Also Sunday... a weak area of low pressure may develop in
NE of the northern Bahamas and slowly move east. This may
potentially allow the weak boundary to sag back south into the
area Monday or early Tuesday keeping probability of precipitation elevated. Tuesday and
Wednesday a middle to upper low may advect a slightly drier airmass
over the area, however this may just steepen lapse rates a bit as
well. The middle level low may then travel into the NE Gulf moistening
the middle level back and potentially increasing precipitable waters to back above 2"
through the end of the week... so bottom line is no dry period is
expected through end of the week.

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Quoting skkippboo:
What ever happened to that wave over Africa last week that looked like a hurricane already?
It's over the lesser Antilles right now.
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Quoting Patrap:
Hmmmm...Nasty rain heading my way, oh well, better than the heat.
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What ever happened to that wave over Africa last week that looked like a hurricane already?
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Pat, those two on the southern portion of South Florida have just been sitting there.
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The three or four meso type cyclones that are apparent on Doppler. Can you tell me what the likelihood of more coming around are?
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College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings


NEW!! Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.

No severe warnings in past 3 hours

Severe Warnings Issued More Than Three Hours Ago
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135 MiamiHurricanes09 "The 1005mb feature to the NW of the Yucatan tip is the tropical wave currently in the central Caribbean. ECMWF 12z 96 hours."

And the 1013 Low looks like the wave currently off the African coast that KarenRei pointed out as having "closed but weak and elongated circulation" on the ASCAT.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting Levi32:


It does, thanks to Alex's upwelled path of cold water. But it still shows development.
It becomes a TS and then basically weakens to a TD because of the cold SSTs.
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If 95L persists over water long enough, it will have a chance. It could easily shed the cold-core characteristics with how much warmth is underneath it in the ocean. The only issue is getting the atmosphere unstable enough to fire and maintain convection to warm the core.
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Quoting IKE:


That's the difference.

Still...the run I saw weakens the low as it heads into northern Mexico.


It does, thanks to Alex's upwelled path of cold water, but it still shows development. In that situation Mexico would likely only have to deal with a much weaker storm than Alex was.
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On radar they look exactly like a mobile triangle
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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