Gulf of Mexico disturbance 95L worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:02 PM GMT on July 03, 2010

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A cold front that pushed off the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf Coast has stalled out over the waters immediately offshore. An area of low pressure, Invest 95L, has developed in the Gulf of Mexico, about 100 miles southeast of the Deepwater Horizon oil disaster. Satellite loops show that this low does have a broad surface circulation, but heavy thunderstorm activity is being limited by 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. Water Vapor satellite loops show that 95L is embedded in a large region of dry air associated with an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system, and this dry air will hinder 95L's development. The cold, dry air associated with this upper-level low is giving 95L a subtropical appearance, with the main heavy thunderstorm activity (to the south) located well away from the center of circulation. NHC is giving 95L a 20% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical depression by 2pm Monday. Wind shear is forecast to be in the 20 - 30 knot range Sunday through Monday, so any development of 95L should be slow. The disturbance is moving west at about 10 - 15 mph, and a general westward motion towards Texas should continue through Monday. None of the reliable computer models develop 95L into a depression. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 95L on Sunday, if necessary.

Elsewhere in the tropics, we should keep an eye on the region to the east of South Carolina for possible development, as well as the western Caribbean. None of the reliable models is showing a tropical storm developing in the Atlantic over the coming week, though.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 95L.

Next post
I am on vacation for the coming week, and Dr. Rob Carver will be handling most or all of the blogging duties July 5 - July 12. One of us will be posting on July 4 if there is a major development to report.

Jeff Masters

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Kman you said one of the models spins it up towards the Yucatan. At how many hours was that? Family arrives in Cancun tomorrow.
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Quoting Levi32:


So far it is the best-defined feature in the Atlantic, and will be moving into a pattern in 6-8 days that will be conducive for it to develop in the western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico.



"52-54W"....is east of the Antilles Islands, not in the Caribbean.



Possibly, but forecasting declaration of an invest is kind of worthless because it is a subjective designation that they hand out without any criteria. If they give it invest status that will mean they think it has potential to develop, but it may not become an invest for several days.
Well the NHC has been giving out invests freely this year (i.e 95L and 94L) so I wouldn't be surprised to see an invest from this area in a few days.
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Who thinks 95L may do what T.S. Eduard did in 2008?
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Quoting Levi32:
In my mind the wave along 52-54W poses the greatest threat down the road out of all 4 of the disturbances we are watching right now.


Even though it has little to no model support (nor did Claudette) I agree with you. Has a very sharp V axis with it, so it defiantly needs watching.

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Quoting Tazmanian:



why that???


So far it is the best-defined feature in the Atlantic, and will be moving into a pattern in 6-8 days that will be conducive for it to develop in the western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico.

Quoting TexasHurricane:


Is that the one in the western carribean?


"52-54W"....is east of the Antilles Islands, not in the Caribbean.

Quoting Tazmanian:



could it be come 96L ??????


Possibly, but forecasting declaration of an invest is kind of worthless because it is a subjective designation that they hand out without any criteria, and thus we can't know if they will make it an invest or not. If they give it invest status that will mean they think it has potential to develop, but it may not become an invest for several days.
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299. xcool

I wouldn't be suprised SEE 96L come soon.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15618
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It's displaying the most impressive structure of all the 4, plus with all the perimeters in place, once it gets into the Caribbean it will have very good ventilation.



un oh
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Quoting Tazmanian:



could it be come 96L ??????

YES TAZ it may as well can
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Quoting Tazmanian:



why that???
It's displaying the most impressive structure of all the 4, plus with all the perimeters in place, once it gets into the Caribbean it will have very good ventilation. Plus some more stuff but I'm sure it already was answered.
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Quoting Levi32:
In my mind the wave along 52-54W poses the greatest threat down the road out of all 4 of the disturbances we are watching right now.


I tend to agree. It has a lot more sea room to work with and the vort is co-located with deep surface convection. In addition the vort signature is fairly well defined whereas the SW Caribbean would need to tighten up. Right now it is spread over a very wide area and this would not allow for much in the way of development until that changes. Alex was much like that for several days.
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Quoting Levi32:
In my mind the wave along 52-54W poses the greatest threat down the road out of all 4 of the disturbances we are watching right now.



could it be come 96L ??????
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Quoting Levi32:
In my mind the wave along 52-54W poses the greatest threat down the road out of all 4 of the disturbances we are watching right now.


Is that the one in the western carribean?
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
Quoting Levi32:
In my mind the wave along 52-54W poses the greatest threat down the road out of all 4 of the disturbances we are watching right now.
Agreed.
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290. xcool
kmanislander .I THINK MORE WNW
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15618
Quoting Levi32:
In my mind the wave along 52-54W poses the greatest threat out of all 4 of the disturbances we are watching right now.



why that???
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Quoting Levi32:
In my mind the wave along 52-54W poses the greatest threat out of all 4 of the disturbances we are watching right now.

it looks pretty good to me still need to watch everything after how long alex and 92L lasted
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In my mind the wave along 52-54W poses the greatest threat down the road out of all 4 of the disturbances we are watching right now.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
TCHP have been cooling lately, but either way still lots of warm water ahead.


that and the fact that its still more insanely hot sst than 2005
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
TCHP have been cooling lately, but either way still lots of warm water ahead.



Combination of Alex, lots of rain and cloud cover. The values will come back fairly quickly.
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284. xcool
there is a lot to watch 2 AOI
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15618
Quoting AlexEmmett:

um aoi 1 is going straght into the hot stuf the stuff that alex missed
TCHP have been cooling lately, but either way still lots of warm water ahead.

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Quoting xcool:
kmanislander 9 /Convection been on the increase today,


Yes it has and we have had constant rain here now for a couple of hours. The real question is whether it will stick around or migrate to the WNW. Some of the models spin up a low near or over the Yucatan so many options are on the table
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Quoting kmanislander:


The vorticity may not cover a large area but it is nice and circular ( well defined ) and has deep convection at the surface. Not that bad looking really.

yah should be somthing to watch
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
AOI #1


AOI #2

um aoi 1 is going straght into the hot stuf the stuff that alex missed
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Quoting AlexEmmett:

yah that wave


The vorticity may not cover a large area but it is nice and circular ( well defined ) and has deep convection at the surface. Not that bad looking really.
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Quoting kmanislander:
Close up of the area South of Jamaica



It looks like the Caribbean is going to explode!
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276. xcool
kmanislander 9 /Convection been on the increase today,
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15618
Quoting Tazmanian:
this wave is starting out wave better then what ALEX started out of

easy taz easy dont want to start another BLOG MELTDOWN
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AOI #1


AOI #2
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Close up of the area South of Jamaica

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Quoting kmanislander:
This is the area near 50 W


yah that wave
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this wave is starting out wave better then what ALEX started out of
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
Probably should hold off on calling anything "pre-stormname"

makes it kinda like you are jumping to conclusions

good point shame i missed the drama though was the blog like an episode of gossip girl lol
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This is the area near 50 W

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268. xcool
tropical heat up
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15618
Probably should hold off on calling anything "pre-stormname"

makes it kinda like you are jumping to conclusions
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Which one is pre Bonnie ? I couldn't guess since none have developed yet so who knows which one will be first.

the one near the lessir antilies carring a shower curtian and a blind fold for jfv
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Quoting kmanislander:


I don't know which wave you are referring to as "pre Bonnie "
I believe it is the one in the western Caribbean which you were previously speaking about.
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Thanks guys. I really appreciate it.
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Quoting AlexEmmett:

not much vort on the pre bonnie wave though


I don't know which wave you are referring to as "pre Bonnie "
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Out of all the systems there the area with the highest chance of becoming Bonnie is the one in the western Caribbean.

yah looks good on sat though
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Quoting AlexEmmett:

not much vort on the pre bonnie wave though
Which one is pre Bonnie ? I couldn't guess since none have developed yet so who knows which one will be first.
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Quoting AlexEmmett:

not much vort on the pre bonnie wave though
Out of all the systems there the area with the highest chance of becoming Bonnie is the one in the western Caribbean.
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Quoting mtyweatherfan90:
Hi to everyone is Day 2 since a new Monterrey emerged. NO water for two days, could take months or years to rebuild the city. People walking on the streets since most of the key avenues and highways are either closed or gone. People seeking for water and help.

Please send us some help!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Wow it is bad

Link

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Quoting kmanislander:
Here is a different view of the vorticity but this time at the 5000 foot level.


not much vort on the pre bonnie wave though
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Quoting StormGoddess:

Half of them got banned? Oh, my. Missed all that, I guess.

NOOOOOOOOOOOO i missed it JFV actually came back what an idiot
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Here is a different view of the vorticity but this time at the 5000 foot level.

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Hi from west-central Florida. Got a break in the storms, so I wanted to hop on and check on things. Link

I'm glad I was able to get on here. I had no idea things were starting to get busy out there. I'm reading everything now to catch up.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

some have been replaced with empty space

some about 50% i ive the western carib wave about 25% chance of forming in the next few days
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.