Gulf of Mexico disturbance 95L worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 6:02 PM GMT on July 03, 2010

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A cold front that pushed off the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf Coast has stalled out over the waters immediately offshore. An area of low pressure, Invest 95L, has developed in the Gulf of Mexico, about 100 miles southeast of the Deepwater Horizon oil disaster. Satellite loops show that this low does have a broad surface circulation, but heavy thunderstorm activity is being limited by 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. Water Vapor satellite loops show that 95L is embedded in a large region of dry air associated with an upper-level cold-cored low pressure system, and this dry air will hinder 95L's development. The cold, dry air associated with this upper-level low is giving 95L a subtropical appearance, with the main heavy thunderstorm activity (to the south) located well away from the center of circulation. NHC is giving 95L a 20% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical depression by 2pm Monday. Wind shear is forecast to be in the 20 - 30 knot range Sunday through Monday, so any development of 95L should be slow. The disturbance is moving west at about 10 - 15 mph, and a general westward motion towards Texas should continue through Monday. None of the reliable computer models develop 95L into a depression. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 95L on Sunday, if necessary.

Elsewhere in the tropics, we should keep an eye on the region to the east of South Carolina for possible development, as well as the western Caribbean. None of the reliable models is showing a tropical storm developing in the Atlantic over the coming week, though.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 95L.

Next post
I am on vacation for the coming week, and Dr. Rob Carver will be handling most or all of the blogging duties July 5 - July 12. One of us will be posting on July 4 if there is a major development to report.

Jeff Masters

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that 2nd wave is starting out where Felix is
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OH yah my 4th is ruined its a 70% chance of rain in the 33480 zip code
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


That only goes to 144h. I'm looking for runs that are up-to-date and go beyong 200h. I think I remember an image posted here that looked like a colourless isobar map?
Only 144 hrs? You need this instead...Link:)
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Wow..the air around Tampa is so saturated, I look for some pretty severe action until the daytime heating finally fades away a bit.
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
322 PM CDT SAT JUL 3 2010

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE DECREASE AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. WILL CANCEL THE FLOOD
WATCH WITH THE 4 PM ISSUANCE AS MOST BAYOUS AND RIVERS ARE ON THE
WAY DOWN AND RAINFALL TODAY HAS BEEN MODERATE AND POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN DECREASES. PW VALUES ARE PROGGED TO STAY NEAR 2.00 INCHES
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. FEEL DAYTIME HEATING ON SUNDAY WILL HELP
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN. SUBTLE CAPPING ABOVE 700 MB
SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE A LITTLE LESS THAN TODAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL TRACK WEST ON MON LEAVING
SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE. LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT
WILL ALSO MIGRATE WEST WITH THE SFC LOW/WEAKNESS OVERHEAD ON
TUESDAY. RAISED POPS ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL LIE ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE WEAKNESS ALOFT. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN
WILL MOVE WEST NORTHWEST WED-FRI WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL MEANDER
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF AND APPROACH THE MEXICAN COAST BY
SATURDAY. AGAIN...HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL LOWER...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL
RISE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE UPSWING BY NEXT WEEKEND. 43

Doesn't seem like this forecaster is to concerned about 2 of the features that are being discussed today.
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Quoting Levi32:


What's funny is that the disturbance in the western Caribbean isn't even the tropical wave. It's something else....the tropical wave that just came into the area is only adding to it.

Is that a Tutt Low being fed a tropical wave??
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Glad I missed it!!

i agree i logged on for a sec but it was too heated
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347. xcool
:)
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting xcool:
AlexEmmett DAM LOL

BRAVO BRAVO BRAVO lol but serously let get back to the tropics
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18z GFS takes the tropical wave associated with the monsoonal trough to Belize as a recognizable system, but only seems to be a sharply inverted wave, and just possibly a tropical depression.

18z GFS 96 hours

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Quoting AlexEmmett:

no thal who shall not be named came back for the millionth god damn time

Glad I missed it!!
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whats this say the blog got out of hand last night
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Quoting Tazmanian:




lol

JFV=Brett Farves adopted son lol
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Here's a TRMM image of Alex making landfall.



EWRC + reverse EWRC!
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Quoting hydrus:
Link.


That only goes to 144h. I'm looking for runs that are up-to-date and go beyong 200h. I think I remember an image posted here that looked like a colourless isobar map?
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338. xcool
AlexEmmett DAM LOL
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting AlexEmmett:

the entire popaltion of iceland




lol
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Quoting Bordonaro:
From the NWS forecast office, Dallas-Ft Worth, TX:


GFS still develops the Caribbean system by combining it with some moisture from 95L and intensifies it in the western GOM, passing it over South Texas.
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un oh that wave be hid the 1st one is starting out where Felx did
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Quoting xcool:
HOW MANY PEOPLE BAN LAST NIGHT ???

the entire popaltion of iceland
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Quoting Bordonaro:
From the NWS forecast office, Dallas-Ft Worth, TX:


What's funny is that the disturbance in the western Caribbean isn't even the tropical wave. It's something else....the tropical wave that just came into the area is only adding to it.
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332. xcool
HOW MANY people BAN LAST NIGHT ???
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Levi32 the 1st wave down there is geting its act togeter


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Quoting DirtlegPartDeux:
The bans are coming fast and furious based on last night's activity. If you would like to see the info let me know..if not that's cool too.

I missed it, what happened that admin was banning people last night?
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Quoting kmanislander:
Taking a break now folks. Back later
Later Kman.
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328. xcool
DirtlegPartDeux MAIL
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting kmanislander:
Taking a break now folks. Back later


Cya later Kman.
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Here's a TRMM image of Alex making landfall.

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the 1st wave seem too be geting its act togeter why the wave be hid it seem too doing the same
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Does anyone have a link to the long-range CMC/GEM?
Link.
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Taking a break now folks. Back later
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The bans are coming fast and furious based on last night's activity. If you would like to see the info let me know..if not that's cool too.
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321. xcool
DirtlegPartDeux WHY
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
I'm passing out some tropical info, but I won't post it here. Email me if you would like a copy of it...you won't be disappointed, in fact you may like it and be quite entertained.
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From the NWS forecast office, Dallas-Ft Worth, TX:
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Quoting Levi32:
Last SCAT pass that caught the wave at 52W was Windsat this morning at 9z, 13 hours ago. It reveals a very nice kink in the ITCZ, but nothing more consolidated than that yet.

Quite impressive.
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Thank you Kman. Tried to get them to go to Georgia or Carolinas but was not successful!
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Quoting Levi32:
Last SCAT pass that caught the wave at 52W was Windsat this morning at 9z, 13 hours ago. It reveals a very nice kink in the ITCZ, but nothing more consolidated than that yet.



Wow, QuickSCAT is gone when we need it most.
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315. xcool
I SEE activity month
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Last SCAT pass that caught the wave at 52W was Windsat this morning at 9z, 13 hours ago. It reveals a very nice kink in the ITCZ, but nothing more consolidated than that yet.

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Quoting splash3392:
Kman you said one of the models spins it up towards the Yucatan. At how many hours was that? Family arrives in Cancun tomorrow.


The ECMWF and the timeline was between 72 and 96 hours on the 12Z run today. I should point out though that the low as shown would only be a rain maker and does not develop until entering the BOC. Finally, models are to be taken with many grains of salt prior to a system materialising. Sometimes the system shows up but often it does not.
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Quoting Levi32:


That's a great ASCAT pass Teddy....misses the whole thing. LOL.

Here's MIMIC-TPW....massive inverted-V signature.

Little swirl is noted south of Jamaica with the western Caribbean disturbance as well.

I've been saying that all day, sorta... Lol.
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Does anyone have a link to the long-range CMC/GEM?
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Quoting Levi32:


That's a great ASCAT pass Teddy....misses the whole thing. LOL.

Here's MIMIC-TPW....massive inverted-V signature.

Little swirl is noted south of Jamaica with the western Caribbean disturbance as well.



Dangit, I thought I was looking at it lol.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Even though it has little to no model support (nor did Claudette) I agree with you. Has a very sharp V axis with it, so it defiantly needs watching.



Defiantly? And what does a V-axis indicate?
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nic we may soon see 96L 97L and may be 98L
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Even though it has little to no model support (nor did Claudette) I agree with you. Has a very sharp V axis with it, so it defiantly needs watching.



That's a great ASCAT pass Teddy....misses the whole thing. LOL.

Here's MIMIC-TPW....massive inverted-V signature.

Little swirl is noted south of Jamaica with the western Caribbean disturbance as well.

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Quoting Levi32:


So far it is the best-defined feature in the Atlantic, and will be moving into a pattern in 6-8 days that will be conducive for it to develop in the western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico.



"52-54W"....is east of the Antilles Islands, not in the Caribbean.



Possibly, but forecasting declaration of an invest is kind of worthless because it is a subjective designation that they hand out without any criteria, and thus we can't know if they will make it an invest or not. If they give it invest status that will mean they think it has potential to develop, but it may not become an invest for several days.


oh ok.....thanks
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
Quoting Levi32:


So far it is the best-defined feature in the Atlantic, and will be moving into a pattern in 6-8 days that will be conducive for it to develop in the western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico.



"52-54W"....is east of the Antilles Islands, not in the Caribbean.



Possibly, but forecasting declaration of an invest is kind of worthless because it is a subjective designation that they hand out without any criteria. If they give it invest status that will mean they think it has potential to develop, but it may not become an invest for several days.




ok
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Kman you said one of the models spins it up towards the Yucatan. At how many hours was that? Family arrives in Cancun tomorrow.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.